Holston_River_Rambler

I thought Ninas normally favored suppression and out to sea, which to me would fit this trend. Aren't Ninas when places further to our south usualy get good snows? Where's that juicy Nino STJ when you need it lol.

For those wanting the Euro output, here you go:

Here are the Euro Machine Learning models for those interested: There are more than 2 ML models, but only 2 have precip panels available

Is that the RRFS?

It's the MSLP running into middle TN that makes me a little nervesome: A little more dig and we can get a clean Miller A, Mobile to Hatteras.

Maybe this is a situation where the boundary will end up a bit further north for the next system to ride, after the early week event rolls out.

I like the PNA ridge on the GFS, I just wish the wave could dig a little more.

Close to a big dog again on the 12z GFS for the late week system

That is the NBM, just so there's no confusion with the previous posts

I don't know it didn't look too different to me between 9 and 12z even has a Knoxville dollop 12z on left, 9z on right

I think that might have been a situation where it was modeling the thermals impacted by a relatively warm Lake Michigan, if I remember correctly, so that some of the Chicago suburbs got skunked closer to the Lake. But it still could be on to something else here

WPC is still north:

I think it sagged the precip axis a little south and cut down on qpf: 0z qpf on the left, 6z on the right: I'm not too concerned with that just yet. NAM is still waaayyy amped and RGEM is a nice compromise between the two. IMO this is going to be like some of what I call the Freaking Flooding February set ups we had in some of the past Springs. Not so much that we will get like 4-7" of qpf, but there will be a "snow hose" set up somewhere in the TN Valley and that qpf maximum will fluctuate based on things like terrain, the exact location/ strength of the jet that is facilitating this lift, and small vorticity maximums swinging through in the mid levels. as long as nothing makes a huge shift today, it's probably just a wait and see where it sets up and follow short term models.

6z Euro:

Man I thought I would wake up to more consensus this AM, but I think some of the wonkier solutions have doubled down. 6z GFS almost tried for the second wave again. Thanks to all y'all night owls for the good disco to catch up on.

I just checked the Euro machine learning models and no dice there. To be clear they look very similar to the euro, but no crazy DGEX output

You know what’s coming up in around an hour?

I didn’t mean to spook anyone. I was just looking at the precip type fields and comparing to last run. I didn’t actually look at the qpf output. Sorry lol.

qpf may have ticked down a smidge

18z Euro looks like it will hold. Should have pics and gifs soon

Got this picture looking SE from North Greene County on I 81 exit 30. Pretty downsloping

I can’t post the pic or gif but it looks like the 12z Euro is continuing the earlier trend of relaxing the suppression in front of the first overrunning wave.

15z NBM ticked up a bit.

IMO that was the best CMC so far. Just looking at surface stuff on tropical tidbits. up in Kingsport trying to break the EB so probably no maps from me until 18z Euro

Euro seems to be ever so slightly easing off on the suppression over the past 3 runs: