Holston_River_Rambler

Pixie dust puke here in MoCo, coming in waves:

That shot is from Frozen Head at about 1800' 

I also forgot to show y'all my ice sculpture I got a couple of mornings ago:

Not really sure how that happened. I just woke up and there it was lol. 

We've finally started our trek out of the COD:

Maybe we can get it to stall in one or two like it has recently in 6 and 7? Does this guarantee anything, no, of course not, but at least it isn't the same old same old. 

I know it isn't for our area, but do y'all feel like the current system over performed preip. rates wise? I feel like it did. Maybe a good thing if we end up with the Euro trying to crap out as moves east. 

6z Euro vs 0z Euro:

I tried to to a similar comparison for the shortwaves, but giphy said it hates me and wants me to die, so you just get 6z:

Sorry put the above in the wrong thread. 

18z Euro AIFS:

H5 vort image kind of sums up the changes:

10 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Most of the Central Valley locations are still hovering around freezing with winds from the north. About 45 mins until the next round comes through. Could we see snow? More of that icky icy stuff?


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I’m hoping someone gets some Thunder + Freezing Rain. 

18z Euro still a bit strung out in comparison to the GFS:

18z GEFS members:

Quite an evolution:

35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Can anyone get a Kuchara map for just that storm including the upslope after, ~ roughly Jan 11-13?

33 in Oak Ridge when I took a quick drive in, 32 still here in southern Morgan County with icicles on some trees. 

No road issues for me. 

Got some sleet mixd in now too. 

Finally got the higher returns overhead and it is just Freezing Rain. 

Little bit of drizzle here, but better radar echoes just to my west. 

Looks like the convection in the MC is finally starting to quiet down, with a pretty large convective system in Polynesia:

It's been so bad we've almost retrograded to 6 on the RMMs:

6z Euro more suppressed than 0z:

6z GFS hopped back into the cutting camp at 6z:

Side-by-side comparison at H5:

Looks  (not saying it will for sure) to me like the RGEM is about to get a good whooping at the hands of the NAM. System hasn't really started IMBY yet though so we'll see. 

As of the 6z run RGEM thought we'd all be in the lower 20s to teens and most everyone is at most in the upper 20s. 3km NAM is much more realistic wrt temps. The system itself seems to be a bit north of what the RGEM predicted as well. 3km NAM does still try to show that pocket if ZR in Anderson and Campbell counties though. 

I don't really like freezing rain all that much, so I guess I can't complain too much. 

It kind of hurt to type the above, the RGEM's my best little friend. 

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

By the KU playbook, yes. 

https://weatherworksinc.com/news/Miller-A-vs-Miller-B

3 hours ago, Scottie16 said:

Would this be considered a type B storm system?


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By the KU playbook, yes. 

18z RGEM gives Kingsport 2” of snow tomorrow am. Somewhat lessened ice amounts 

Here is the surface:

and 500 mb

Here is the snow footprint for those who want it:

some icing south of I-40 too

Euro is cutting the first blob of precip, but not quite as dramatically as the GFS . 

Looks like the ULL is kicking out eastward a bit quicker vs 6z on the Euro.

GEFS:

Not much support for the warmer solution, dry and suppressed seems more of a concern wrt this run. 

Either way on to the Euro. 

Will it kick out the ULL this time?

Will it retrograde it to Hawaii? 

Will a great elk ride from the north with banners of snow and trumpets of ice? 

Will a metal snowman rampage across TN? 

What will the wooly worms say to these developments should they bear fruit?