Holston_River_Rambler

Ron to run trend:

I don't know which is better on the HRRR, the Kuchera or 10:1 lol. 

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

But at least the answer to that question is that today has promise in that it won't be boring. 

Maybe Powell will ride in like Gandalf at Helm's Deep to usher in the 18z runs? 

One thing I have noticed (now that I can look earlier than thought at the SREF thanks to fountain) is that he SREF cores seem to have been overestimating ZR over AR and TX:

5 run trend:

ARW core

NMB core:

They are also too far north with the mixing line:

Past 3 EPS means:

Welp, still over an hour for the SREF, so might as well look at the EPS:

10th through 90th percentile snowfall (this is NOT an increasing Mean)

1 minute ago, matt9697 said:

Here is the most recent statement on the Sumner County Facebook page.....

Local news (WBIR and WATE haven't had a chance to see WVLT yet) this AM seem to be leaning into the more snow than not, but I think they have the problem of the MRX graphics totals cut in southern and eastern areas of east TN. Also a lot of times the in house models they show on TV are Hi res CAMs that show some of the mixing potential. 

17 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

The next slide is even better.  Just don’t look at it on a full stomach.

NAM is nailing its colors to the mast of its algorithm. 

Wild that we were worried about suppression just 22 hours ago, lol. 

WPC probabilities as of 21z:

at least 2":

at least 4"

at least 6"

RGEM has only a small amount of sleet near the GA border and has upped .qpf a small amount. 

Hey I almost nailed the WPC disco release time lol. Nice that they want to keep mention of mixing around and south of I 20

What time will get an AFD? Will this be one of those after 4 days? I’m goin for 3:34 PM unless they’re waiting on a WPC product like Jeff mentioned. 

Euro handles a vort differently from the GFS and this vort squishes the system a bit 

Euro -> GFS

3km:

12km:

Yeah, was also just about to post the 3km was not nearly as warm nosey. 

NAM is trying to bring in some mixing issues I 40 south

SREF makes it look like the NAM will come in amped. I guess w'll see soon. 

Getting some pretty good light snow here now, slowly getting heavier. 

The Bays mt band kind of reoriented this AM as the some colder air was pushed Ne and SW against the higher mts:

see how the clear air is sort of stretching south of Knoxville and north of Bristol?

so you briefly get the band aimed at Kingsport