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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS looked like it was seeing a signal for anther Gulf storm at the end of its run. Too far out to say much more than that for now.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I will say the 6z RGEM has an interesting solution at the end of its run. The initial low does run up west of the Apps, but N Stream energy drops in and cuts off and provides some lift:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking more and more like it will make a run up just west of or over the Apps. Still time for some surprises though. On the bright side, the EPS members see hope for at least a solid dusting for the usual upslope areas and even a chance for valley areas:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sunrise over our little N stream friend in the Gulf of Alaska:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    FWIW the 12z Ukie is even further east now, from being the furthest west:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is a little bit bantery, but it is a holiday, so why not? Aren't we in that weird window we sometimes notice between days 3 - 5 when models lose storms or flip-flop, only for them to pop back up.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pics from my Frozen Head Turkey Trot today: Time lapse video looking SE: https://imgur.com/a/objhsi8 Other pics from Chimney Tops and the Lookout Tower: Looking N: Looking SE: Looking WSW: Looking NW towards Wartburg and the Obed:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro has come east some at 12z, but not enough. Surface low runs right up I 75 in the eastern valley.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z EPS MSLPs are a little(and I mean a tad) further south, but still a pretty tight wad of 'em around TN: 6z: 0z
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro doesn't quite out as far as we would like, but it does look east of 0z run: 6z: 0z: Southern stream energy was more open and the N stream can bully it more easterly
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the GEFS member lows for comparison to the EPS above:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry got a little carried away with gifs on that one and forgot to add that the EPS has jumped west some, but is not as far west as the OP. This close to the day of, it may be expected that the ensembles, run off the west OP, would jump some.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Euro jumped west again. Looks a lot like the UKMET has for the past couple of days. 6z GFS now looks more like the Euro did yesterday. The UKMET, which has been pretty steady the past few days with a cutter over Nashville has now, you guessed it, become the most easterly of the OPs with its depiction of the surface low (shown below for dramatic effect, lol) The UKMET has the northern stream system is slower, so the cold air is late to the party Not sure how the UKMET does when streams cross though.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Success!!!!! I must not have read what you said carefully enough, lol. Sorry!!! I've been trying to figure this out for a while.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    It may be because I'm making them hidden posts. I had somebody try to preach to me about titles on Imgur when I uploaded a storm pic publicly once and decided I didn't care enough after that to make them public. I will try it again though, to see if it lets me link them. In terms of obs. coming back up onto the plateau the fog rolled in and was thick in places. And Kingsport still has a lot more leaves than we do here. I even saw a tree in the N slope of Bays Mt that still looked like it was a pale green.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I tried that stovepipe with the following link but it wouldn’t allow this link: https://imgur.com/a/fAAIbyn
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Another good sunset this PM Powell. Driving through Powell and Claxton towards home. I do t have tapatalk. I should probably get it if it helps with pics. https://imgur.com/a/zIedxHD
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Precip and 850 temps too nice not to share too sorry for multiple posts but trying to do all this from my phone now
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS still looking good and even a little east of the OP
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I saw that MRX overnight mentioned the WPC and hadn't looked at their maps yet: not unhappy with that look 5 days out.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS mean looks more like the OP overnight: A question I have looking at this mean, is will the Surface Low try to jump to or at least toward the coast? I don't really understand the dynamic between a surface low and its upper level support. Sure, give me a normal shortwave on satellite and I think I could ball park where the surface reflection would show up, but this seems like it will be a unique lil beastie. I have a gif saved of a storm whose 500mb vorticity evolution reminds me of this one, but I won't say it out loud. The energy looked stronger with that one and it all came together further south. The 6z GEFS is still a west of the Euro, but seems to be getting a little closer to its solution, especially in the means as the storm develops and heads NE:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Queen City posted this in the SE forum, but here are the EPS member surface lows over the course of the potential storm: It's hard to see, on my gif, but there are quite a few ~1000 mb and some sub 1000 mb lows to out SE on the 12z run. NAVGEM is, well, the NAVGEM, but it seems to show a compromise like the EPS mean: It really wants to cut, badly, but that N stream energy bullies it S and E and it turns into an inland runner. 18z GEFS is further east than the OP, likely it is splitting the difference between the two camps: And there are some members that cut the 500 mb energy off SE of us or at least push it east of us as the N stream energy rushes in and phases. I think a lot is going to depend on the speed and timing of the N stream energy as to how much latitude the S stream energy can gain before it passes our longitude. I think the N. Stream energy is over Kamchatka or Mongolia now.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS means: MSLP: 500mb: 850 temps: precip: whether any of this plays out or not, that was a pretty 12z EPS run
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie is almost there, but further W in its evolution (my access only goes out to 144 hrs)
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