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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I kinda feel like, anemic as happy hour GFS OP was, that was the best look it has had so far: (Using COD for maximal snowage)
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC looks like a compromise favoring the GFS. Still some precip, but the energy is not nearly as wound up.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sometimes @Carvers Gap, regarding the model changes over the past week, I really do wonder how much it has to do with how they initialize tropical convection: Last week over the MC: This AM: a lot of the MC convection. is south of the equator. although there is more over the Indian Ocean
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's wild @TellicoWx Even most GEFS members don't have much, though some have the wave. I can't tell if the new GEFS is more favorable than the old one (still available on COD: 6z Old GEFS: New GEFS:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I really like the conversational tone of the writer who does BNA's AFD (Not a jab at other AFDs, I like em all) " I think what will be of more interest to everyone is what`s on the backside of Saturday`s system. As of right now, the white stuff is a possibility Sunday night in both of our major models. However, the euro is drastically different in evolution compared to the GFS. In fact, if the euro verifies, portions of Middle TN could see plenty of the white stuff. No, no, no. I`m not biting yet. The last several euro runs have been much different from one another and without a better sense of consistency, I`m just going to keep a chance PoP in for Sunday night`s potential wintry stuff. We`re cool and dry to start off next week, so for now, this weekend system will be the only one to deal with over the next 7 days."
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think every model, except the GFS and GFS parallel, has some sort of wave riding the front laid down after this weekend's storm (even if they are no where near as amped as the Euro). Even the NAVGEM (God love it's little soul) Isn't there some ancient lore about if the (supposedly) progressive NAVGEM has a storm...
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh Lawd, I forgot Knoxville: The control looked a little more like yesterday's run, so that's why some of the eastern areas miss out on that member.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Man, I thought for sure that was an oddball Euro run yesterday, lol. Some EPS support though (no particular order and including the 0z Mean; sorry for the speed, but giphy limited me to 1.2 seconds per frame because of the image #):
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    NW trend FTW:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not a bad signal for a trailing wave on the EPS, though not nearly as slap happy as the OP; Some of the 12z GEFS members are like the Ukie:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET had a less wound up piece of energy, but still a wave riding a front:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll add one more thing since I've had half a cup of caffeine now. I am going to be very happy to see the cut off under the PNA ridge get out of there and clean up the flow. It was fun, but it's over. We made memories; we laughed and cried, but time to move on.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Being playful and optimistic (no caffeine yet so I have to try harder, lol) one could look at the GEFS control's vision for tropical convection going into January: One could also look at Raul Roundy's regressions: Roundy had a fun exchange yesterday on twitter about Greenland blocking coming back in early January. FRD told PSU on the MA forum about it and , strangely (at least to me) he was about as surly as Jeff after a Chiefs loss about it. Canada looked cold on 18z GFS yesterday too: some nice -40s and even a few -50s
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry @Carvers Gap weathermodels doesn't have it. I can get it on Tropical Tidbits, but it is usually a day or two behind the most recent runs there. I thought Sunday's looked pretty good, but Monday's 0z went back to blah. I'm guessing Tuesday 0z was nice? Here is Sunday's: If for nothing else, worth making one to see how it verifies, now that we have it running out to 800 hours.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    It is a taboo subject. It's like seeing a storm shift NW last 24 hours when people expect it to dump on Asheville. If you talk about it, you jinx it. I don't wish that industrial sized curse upon Kingsport.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Decided try a NW Plateau obs loop today to see if I could see any upslope. The NAMs looked pretty generous: But there wasn't much besides some pretty winter skies. There was some snow on the Pogue Creek Canyon area, but the flakes were sooooo small, it was almost as though they were just frozen drizzle, coated with a dusting of rime: If you squint you can almost see it snowing: Overlook at the Big South Fork: Upper Obed:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I will say the overnight OP CMC and Euro look interesting towards the end of their runs, but it is in that seemingly-always-present, but-seemingly-never-quite-realized, 8 - 10 day period. Both show a wave trying to ride a front after it passes through. CMC on Dec 14 and Euro on Dec 17.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Strat still looking interesting this AM, as a follow up to what Carver's posted last night. This is not meant as any sort of critique of his post or the post in the MA forum, but the 500mb ensembles still look similar to yesterday, so I thought I'd go strat. hunting. Although IMO we're still too far out to know what if anything is going to happen, I do think there will be an attempt at a warming or split in the next 10 - 15 days. Whether it meets the criteria for a SSW or produces anything in any way useful for us, remains to be seen. Looks like it is kind of a mixture between a bottom up and top down event. 50mb on the 0z Euro: There's stretching and some splitting at this level and the 0z GFS shows what the Euro could show if it ran past 240 hours: A weakened vortex tries to reconsolidate, at least at this level of the atmosphere. Higher up, the Euro sees the warmth building over NE Siberia, but no split: GFS gets the split at 10 mb, but also reconsolidates: 3D vortex page is usually a day behind in the GFS runs, so I can't show it in that format. I'd like to see it within 3 - 5 days with some ensemble agreement to start really thinking about if a SSW or split is going to happen or not. Still looks stout on some ensembles, at least at 10 mb: At least it's are looking weaker than last year, lol: And as a lesson from last year, here is how a similar, almost split, could reconsolidate: Last year's SPV was a record strong, so not sure it will be that way again. But it is still 2020... I had my year off from SSW and splits last year. I'm good to go for another one, as long as it doesn't wait until Feb, to make a miserable Spring.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Initials are E.B. That’s all I will say.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap interesting to see the difference just over in Carter's Valley:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Moisture being lifted over KY and N. central TN: and it looks like a little front just crept through Nashville.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Already got some hit and miss mid 30s in SW VA and NE TN
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hope @mempho is ok? Time to dredge out the TN Valley Panic Room/ Lifeboat decor.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Member 35 of the 12z EPS likes a snowier solstice solution:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah that would be ugly. Solstice severe on the control after some ice. Double the Christmas power outages = double the fun.
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