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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wet bluebirds are fattening up here in Kingsport:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Right over top of my house. Wish I was there! I’m in Kingsport now, about to head back that way.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z HRRR: 15z:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    How will the Holston and Bays mountain look in 24 hours? Drippy right now
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I may have missed it, but did anyone see this from MRX overnight? "With the strong signal for CSI, banding is expected and would not be surprised to even see a lightning strike with stronger bands across far NE TN and SW VA."
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    You can start to see the energy at the bottom of the trough doing it's thaaaang: The first image is the SPC's mesoscale analysis of 500 mb potential vorticity. The next image is the upper level WV from GOES 16. On that one, in real time, you can see: the red line is the energy at the bottom, the backing of the flow in response to the energy digging and tilting (arrows and the back line), and finally, what we want to look for, moisture being lifted back up, over N. MS (circle). Sorry it is so fast. We are waiting on a second piece of energy to sorta, schmaybe phase, with the bottom one, to back the flow a bit more, and get some more lift, before the deep moisture runs away: RGEM (because, why not, I'm riding it into the sunset today, might as well go for my best case scenario), says that should start to happen around 2PM Eastern, 1PM Central today. So just in time for a Bonanza Christmas episode on MeTv today. Obligatory RGEM image:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    C'mon blocking, help us out: That's the spirit!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    It’s a stout line. Will be interesting to see how long thunder stays with it!
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    The dynamics of this system are, in some ways, already out performing the models. NAMs, WRF-ARW2, HRRR, and RGEM for 9 PM tonight, vs reality:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think so. There is a Mountain Wave forecast for this system. So far, at least in my area, its dynamics are stout.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z day of. Time to walk the line:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's 8:50 PM, do you know where your SREF trends are ?????
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Working now. Not sure what happened for a bit. Probably that well-shaped dollop again.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Something weird going on with the gifs, I'm having a hard time uploading them
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    My 18z Euro is still only out to hr 21 with winter panels, but here is the 3 hr precip from hour 24, when it looks like mostly changed over:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Always like it when the airmass is so cold, you can see it in IR satellite during the day: Grays that look like clouds sliding through SE OK, but there are no clouds, just cold: Front is popping some convection now too, over central AR: and speaking of lapse rate snow showers, they look pretty healthy in the upper left of that gif, over KS
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Def a fan of the RGEM for my area. Everything else is too little too late for most of MoCo: Really interested to see if something like those convective bands verify under the lapse rates of the upper low.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    **For Entertainment Purposes Only** It really likes the Mt Rogers area/ Grayson Highlands area
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Took a drive to Sparta TN yesterday. Beautiful views of the western edge of the plateau looking towards Cookeville: Also, cool sunrise this AM up here, some cirrus, before dawn, were catching the sun: I had to tweak the above mage a bit to capture the almost eerie look, due to low light. Sunrise:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    No worries. I had just dealt with a BS work email and was a little edgy. I think I probably took it in a way you didn't mean it. Christmas snow is serious business, lol!
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Back on this storm note, I'm really looking forward to @BuCoVaWx obs for this. If you can take some pictures please do. I think you are as close to the bull's eye as anyone on here. I'll be with the Kingsport crew tomorrow to see my folks for Christmas, hoping I can get home in time to see the changeover, but expect it may have already happened when I get home around 4. I will be driving down 81 as the changeover works it's way east and NE.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Me too. I keep trying to remember that one, but can't. I remember the weather channel met Bruce Edwards coming on and saying something like, "Well we were expecting the moisture to come north and it just didn't happen." I vaguely remember the radar image and I think convection parallel to the Gulf cut off the moisture feed??
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe one of these decades we'll have storm where none of this micro or meso trends--thread the needle stuff matters and we can just all enjoy a general snow dump forum wide. Low track from NoLa to Greenville, NC and a 1035 high over Michigan.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I agree, what I'm trying to get across, in case someone sees me post a SREF plume or H5 plot, is that I'm using it for trends, (or pure snow weenie fun), not as a serious verbatim forecasting NWP model.
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