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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    In 18-19 the Jan SSW seemed to help fuel the convection of the MJO in the 4/5/6 areas. Hopefully, if there is a connection between the cooler temps at high altitudes in the tropics and enhanced convection, we can time it better just as some convection flares up over the western Pac areas: If it happened right now, and the above helps reignite convection, I'm not sure it wouldn't just sit over the areas it is now looks like mostly 5 to me: I think the strat. is a done deal now. Something is going to happen to mess with it. As to how it unfolds, whether or not it qualifies as a SSWE, whether or not there is a displacement or split, and if it helps NA pattern or not, those are the big questions. The 17-18 happened around mid Feb or so, and that one did result in a nice pattern, it just took a month for the eastern areas on North America to benefit from its repercussions, and by them we just had a grey, rainy, cold, spring. For now the Pac jet extension is coming and until we navigate that I think the ensembles will look nasty at times in the LR. That's not to say there isn't a chance of the storm we've been seeing for New Years, I don't mean to imply that at all. Just blah ensemble means like this: For reference and discussion (if any are interested in looking at them) here is the pattern in mid Feb 2018 that proceeded the SSW: ~A month later: A low can't cut, but it is a bit late in climo for us. I will try to dredge up some more of these type of gifs while we wait for the strat to do its thang. Maybe we can try to get a hint at what could happen.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Frozen Head Chimney Top Trail: Looking towards Wartburg: Chimney Top (~3100'): Looking towards Lone Mountain: Saddle before Chimney Top: Chimney Top saddle trail: Ice Cliffs: About the same amount of snow I had. Less in places.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like Dan may have broken into the negative single digits this AM: Definitely some chilly spots with snow cover this AM: not too often the IR picks up snow cover in the purples in East TN
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS OP would be an ideal solution FMBY. The energy digs south and progresses through our longitude in a great way: If you've heard people say, "you have to get cold air and moisture to meet," this is a great way to get it. That NW to SE tilt the energy takes, helps throw that moisture back over the cold air. 6z GEFS (new version) more enthused for western areas, but still a lot of misses for everyone. Old 6z GEFS has some nice hits too. The UMKET has a really deep piece of energy that digs further south, but it turns negative too far west: The CMC and Euro are in the middle of these two. But I would say closer to the Ukie. Hopefully, if a similar set up happens again this week, western areas can benefit this time. EPS says nada.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm finally getting some streamers up here in MoCo: I had forgotten how pretty fresh snow on top of old snow is
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    For some reason the full gif didn’t load. The end looks even better! Some PNA action.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS too
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 16 says Merry Christmas to TRI: HO HO HO
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, it just gets shredded by the bigger storm earlier, when that storm hits the big block and gets stuck. 0z overnight/ 12z yesterday (side by side, no less, a la Carver) I think with the Pac jet extension caused by the big Siberian high, having the zonal look from overnight is gonna be a risk until the jet snaps back after that extension. it's like a conveyer belt of energy getting cranked up and spitting out energy that has to be timed just right with the big NAO block. About the same number of EPS members have a storm around that time though, as compared to the 12z run, so something is still possible in that window. The 6z GFS (it's Christmas, so why not) shows a positive outcome to what might happen as the jet retracts: Some of the bad convection areas looking fiesty right now too: The 3D Strat vortex looking rough, so that can't be anything but good. No big split guaranteed and like others have said, no telling exactly how that would turn out, but so far it being under stress seems to have been good: Ensembles:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of those dollops doubled my snow while I was asleep, waiting on Sandy Claws!! 3.5 - 4 in a few choice places !!! glad to see Dandridge is ok!
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh yeah!:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Snow dog: She decided it would be a good idea to go waller in the snow!
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    It is such a cold/dry airmass, I was wondering how well those models progs would verify. I will take fine flakes!
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thanks for the update, was curious about those radar returns.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I know which house you are talking about. I grew up a few houses away, lived there from 1983 - 2007. One of my best friends lived in that house for a while. Good times on that road and the mountain for me!
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure. I do think the mechanism that is generating the NW flow is the upper low and the lift that it creates in front of it is what's generating the snows currently over eastern areas. I suspect it's one or the other. Not a dumb question at all.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the long-awaited snow bands associated with the upper low and lapse rates are starting to develop over KY and Middle TN:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Rain/snow line racing toward TRI:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    About to be an epic Christmas eve for a few hours for some folks in NE TN and SW VA!!!
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Has anyone checked on Dandridge? Is it still there?
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    2 inches and I'm in the same boat as McMinn and Shawn
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Indeed it is.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    The gifs just weren't doing it justice:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    For y'all up the valley, toward SW VA and TRI, I can't wait until you get these bands. 100% worth the wait!
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Crazy drive back from Kingsport. 50 or to start, and some nice prefrontal clouds heading down 81: around MM 34: around MM 18, on the hill on 81 just north of Morristown: The temp dropped from 52 on my car thermometer, to 42, between Strawberry Plains and Downtown Knoxville Once I hit Oak Ridge, it was down to 36. A winter wonderland up her on the plateau!!!: Pretty unreal up here with the snow and the wind.
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