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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    One other thing that has been interesting to me looking through the SPC meso page, is this ribbon of deep DGZ around the stretched out vorticity: I think there is a 3000' thick DGZ layer back in Kansas. EDIT: Oh wow, that's not in feet, it's in meters. So that's almost 10000 feet thick
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    The main cold pool is still a ways off: Still quite a bit of dynamics associated with it yet to swing through: The above isn't exactly the same, but is kind of a real time analysis of the vort. maps I and others post (example): Noticed a bit of frontogenesis too, on the SPC mesoscale page over East TN:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's some cousin Eddie level stuff, lol!
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Starting to get some good rates now. Solid dusting.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still unacceptable.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    A couple of thoughts about the most recent 3km NAM: I don't think the NAM is seeing the Bays mt band we've seen in the past from NW flow, but that is an interesting enhancement streak in accums. with regard to the Bays Mt. band's typical location.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I-81 at Ft Henry Drive in Kingsport/ Colonial Heights looks fun:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Starting to fully saturate here now. Should be a steady light snow soon.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Are you north or south of house mt?
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Cheer up fellers! Sunset is in only three hours! Kidding aside, upper low is still up north Chicago and all we have is some broad divergence ands little bit of a leeside low for now.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    state of the state here: with occasional flurries.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still some dry air to overcome. And I'm guessing there are some people looking at the sounding below who have seen a model sounding, but aren't quite sure what it means, so I have put a few (hopefully) helpful tags. Above sounding is for around 8am this morning ,near Morristown, just as a site kind of in the middle of the area most likely to get snow. Red and green lines show the temperature and dewpoint respectively at any given level between the ground and the tropopause. the ground is at the bottom of the line and the tropopause is at the top. You want those two to be together or close, to get precipitation. Note that on the above sounding they are still a bit apart, especially lower down in the atmosphere. For good snow growth, you want the dewpoint and temperature to be together in the yellow zone, the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). DGZ has to do with temperature. There is additional info about the DGZ for a particular sounding in the box on the far bottom right. Temperature and saturation can effect snow dendrite type: You'll probably see some soundings on here today or have already seen some that shows a HUGE DGZ. Lastly we have Omega, called so because (I think) it is the greek letter used to denote forcing. I am not a mathemataizer, so here is a description:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think at this point noon - 1 is probably a good call, but I would just watch radar and wait for the snow to reach the ground. HRRR is struggling with the radar depiction, even when it initializes with the current radar. You can see below it initializes with the current radar: But loses it in the next frames.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Johnson City has been upgraded to Major impacts as of this AM on the WSSI severity index:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Once again it is time:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lake michigan still has quite a bit of open water, maybe the upper low can pick up some moisture if it’s cold enough lol.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    SREF means .qpf trends for select locations Abingdon: TRI:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    the above is for TYS
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the SREF .qpf held pretty steady (blue is 15z, red is 9z) EDIT I got it backwards. red is 15z, blue is 9z
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I guess that's more like Rutledge though
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wy does snow hate Morristown and want it to die?
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    edited for key:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh yeah, I just saw the "High End" wording. You could have just let me believe for a few more minutes.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    That WPC map is almost unbelievable.
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