Holston_River_Rambler

Interesting features to the lee of Black Mt. KY and High Knob, VA earlier this AM:

I should also at least own up to the fact that the strat kind of flopped: It tried and failed. Also, I don't really understand how all the east Asia correlation stuff works, but shouldn't this be a good look for us by around March 10- 15?

If only we could get this with some cold: But at least they are running the Barkely ultra marathon at Frozen Head in it!

@John1122

Pretty wild weather swings from Kingsport to Morgan county: This: and this (Eastman bubble): To this, and 55 degrees:

Looks like it has finally made it to the valley floor. Going to try and bring it back to Morgan county lol

Something I have truly missed about living in Kingsport, and I'm not being sarcastic, is being able to see it absolutely ripping snow up on Bays Mt, with Rain/ snow mix just around 1000' feet lower. Don't know if this one will work or not, but I can actually see the snow above my head, but most of it is melting before it hits my elevation ~1300 feet Probably looks like static to most in this lo res gif, but if you have good eyes you may be able to see. A few flakes bade it down, but a wall of snow about 500' up

Starting to snow pretty good in west Kingsport now

Currently in the box area, looking NNW:

Already got some flurries in Kingsport.

When I wake up at 2am tomorrow morning to ponder how I can concoct baseless myths and empirically vapid one liners to post on American Weather, as is my custom, I'll be sure to provide more data for future posts. If I had known someone was going to come in here and accuse me of being part of some myth promulgation, I would have been more specific and offered an empirically sound and data driven assessment of the entire TN Valley watershed's 2m temperatures. A mausoleum must be more lively than in the other sub forums right now.

I think we warmed up for a while from around just after Christmas through mid January. Torch weenies kept predicting a big torch, but it was just average or a little abv. average.

Looking at the tropical West Pacific this am and noticed we just have a tropical storm hitting the Philippines in February with a less organized twin storm over western Australia's coast. This sort of set up seems to associated with westerly wind bursts and just a quick search shows that it tends to happen in years with El Ninos that develop in the late summer and fall (2015/ 2023). Last few days of satellite: Looks like we art going to do early Jan all over again, at least wrt tropical forcing: GEFS still likes a decent strat. disruption around Valentines Day: A true sudden stratosperic warming event (SSWE) has to have a wind reversal (blue lines drop below 0): EPS (above) isn't as enthused as it has been recently, even though the Euro OP still shows some significant warming: Any potential impacts, if we get a SSWE at some point this month, would likely be at least a couple of weeks minimum, after the event.

WBIR is reporting sidewalks covered with snow in sunbright. Just supercooled rain and occasional sleet here 20 minutes south.

As far as I can tell, it looks like everyone has gotten above freezing, so at least no ice to deal with this evening.