Holston_River_Rambler

There is apparently a TDOT camera in just the right area at mm 53: Under two miles up I-81 a mm 54.8: I wish I had planned on a Kingsport trip today, so I could do some investigating.

Cloud streets meant business this morning:

I made a throw away account on imgur and will either screen shot static images or save to my desktop gifs generated by a site like tropical tidbits. You just have to drag and drop the saved gif (.gif) or image (I think it has to be a .png or .jpg) to the box on imgur. Then you click "copy image address": Then you just paste that link directly into the text box here and hit the "enter" or "return." It should automatically populate the image or gif at that point.

"Lots to consider, but in summary, the early January Pacific trough regime will be largely negated by a polar domain that will continue to be conducive (lower PV that is close by and uncoupled from stronger stratospheric vortex, and stratospheric vortex that often stretches towards northeast US) to allow for colder interludes into the northeastern US. The current Pacific trough regime is then forecast to act as the precursor to a mid-January reflection event, which will induce the Alaskan ridge regime necessary to ultimately trigger a wave 2 split of the PV in February, which will all about ensure an ending to this winter season that will be nothing like the tame ending that we have come to expect from cool ENSO winters. Needless to say, the month of January should be anything but mundane, so stay tuned" https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/ Pacific trough -> Alaska ridge:

I haven't contributed a whole lot lately, but haven't really seen anything to add. I did notice in the main ENSO thread that someone pointed out the Euro is showing some strat trickery, so I thought I'd look into that Sure enough, it is showing a bottom up warming starting over Siberia and pushing that to north central Canada/ Greenland: Doesn't quite make it up to 10mb, but something to watch. Some of this seems to line up with 40/70 benchmark's idea of a strat reflection event in mid January, but it is still only one run of one model.

Models that run that far out in time keep trying to churn up some big storm with cold and plenty of STJ moisture between let's says Jan 7 - 10, details of course TBD, but wouldn't be surprised if we do get a bigger storm in that time frame.

I should add it was waaaaayyyyy out in fantasy range, but still....

Anybody happen to see the HP the 0z GFS snuck out on top of Greenland?

Merry Christmas!

The idea seems to be a jet extension caused by a +east Asian mountain torque will help dislodge the Aleutian high. Here it is on the 18z GFS: Big high drops down into east Asia: Momentum gets added to the pac jet: Aleutian high dies: I almost wrote the "mountain twerkers" lol. Hope that jet extension doesn't go too far. That's burned us in the past.

The mountain torquers seem rather excited. Got to have a big old HP slam down from Siberia into east Asia. Of course we have to hope some hitherto little known index does not screw it up.

And if the now advertised PAC jet extension can dislodge the Aleutian Ridge

I think a lot of it just depends on how the NAO evolves and how long it hangs around. Probably not getting an answer on that one soon.

Euro has the dreaded La Nina qpf firehose look to it: