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midatlanticweather

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    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

    This is what the gfs was forecasting 144 hours before the Dec 2009 storm. Lol

     

    And this was what it ended up as

     

    Not comparing the two storms just pointing out what kinds of errors can happen from 144 hours. Now go look at the h5 difference between the runs with a hit for our area and the one with a close miss. We're not talking earth shattering adjustments for this lead. 

    2

    I remember a few things about this storm. The first was how convinced I was it was going to go south, and second how the forecast started to really change in our favor as we got closer. The last was DT's comment that there was "no reason why this will not go north" and it opened the door to the historic storm.. and it was a good cold snow! My hopes are becoming less and less for this to turn favorable, but there is hope! We have advanced quite a bit in technology since then, but errors are just as possible today as they were then! What do we want to see over the next few days (besides the obvious model changes)

    To me: 

    1. Speed of the wave
    2. The confluence in NE
    3. Where the wave comes on shore out west
    4. Strength of the storm

    A million others I am certain, but these are the very first things I look at when the model shows the energy hitting the west coast

     

    • Like 3

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    My only advice would be to calm down and just assume most "threats" will fail.  It's only the first week of December and some seem already way too invested in this one threat.  Overall...I like that we seem to be creating chances as a pretty good clip.  Its still way too early to judge failure as a bad sign for the rest of the winter.  Just getting "threats" this early is a good sign imo.  There are no signs of the kind of winter killing pattern drivers like a raging positive AO or NAO and the blue ball over Alaska is becoming very transient looking.  I am very optimistic on the whole for winter but any given storm threat from range should be taken as low probability.  Our climo is what it is!

    As for this specific threat... As Don pointed out the current H5 configuration looks more like a southern mid atlantic hit and the guidance definitely has converged on that.  But....the system is very healthy and it would only take a slight error in the current h5 forecast for everything to shift north...and north is more likely then south with the northern stream features imo.  We just have to wait and see... I feel pretty confident the typical north adjustment will happen the last 72 hours.  But that adjustment isnt 500 miles like it once was.  We haven't really had any instances of a "late save" here lately because we have either been in the target zone or pretty far out of it going into the final stretch the last few years.  We have seen some "not even close" misses become "close but no cigar" or fringe type events.  If this is targeting VA I think we are in good shape.  If this starts to look like a SC/NC event...it might be too much to ask.  I was good with where the majority of guidance was last night.  The euro suite improved and kept us in the game.  

    Great summary! How I feel! If we continue to see general improvements at the major runs, we may be able to reel this one in! I think VA is probably bullseye, and I would be less confident if NC except NW NC! SW VA seems the gold spot no matter what to me!

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

    So what you're saying is this run is different from 6z which was different from 0z and this run?

    All is clear as mud. But in all seriousness, this stuff is what makes the hobby fun and frustrating at the same time. Nothing is set until the day after the storm. 

    December Banter 2018

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

    Knew the overnight runs were good just based on the number of pages in the new thread

    It is my litmus test of whether I want to look at them first thing or after I am ready for the day! LOL

     

    November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

    The troubling part of the second threat on the gfs, for me, is that the storm seems to be disappearing from some of the ens members. I liked that it was pretty much on all of them a couple of days ago.

    This is the time though that I think at least in the past where models can sometimes kind of lose a storm for a day or two.

    It seems to have precipitated on most weekends for the last several months! Something is probably going to happen! IN our back yard, not sure.. In college, my met professor said to look for repeating patterns within a day of each other every 7 days unless a huge atmospheric event was witnessed. I have found that to be somewhat true! 6 of the last 7 fridays have had precipitation! Many Saturdays as well...if not precip, a frontal passage has occurred. Seems consistent.

     

    November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

    @Maestrobjwa

    yesterday you brought up the modoki vs basin wide debate going on. I replied but didn't have time to go into it much.  Imo there is a lot of confusion regarding this. And some of it seems to be a difference in how some classify a modoki. Some seems to be ignorance. And some seems to be agenda driven intellectual dishonesty.  But the problem is the difference between different types of enso is ambiguous sometimes and not a clear cut thing  

    First there seems to be a newer definition of a modoki that classifies it as warmer waters in the central Pacific with cooler waters in the wearer equatorial Pacific. The older classic definition I was familiar with was when the warming originates and propagates from the central Pacific.  

    By the newer definition there are very few actual modoki ninos. Almost all the ninos we call modoki would be basin wide by that definition because almost all of them as they mature spread out and encompass the entire basin at some point. But some are using this more restrictive classification to say this is not a modoki.  But then 2002/2, 2009/10, and 2014/15 weren't either.  

    Let's call these people the modoki truthers. By their definition yea this isn't a modoki but neither are the other analogs. Some of them seem to truly be confused about the distraction and some seem to be playing word games to serve an agenda. I have no interest in labels. I don't care what you call this phenomenon. Call it the kings nuts for all I care what matters to me are finding good analogs not what to call them. 

    I'll try to illustrate below.  This is how a classical nino evolves originating in the eastern Pacific and propagating westward.

    .....

    in the next post I'll show some "modoki" years and this year...

    19

     

    Looking forward to seeing the kings nuts in your next post! 

    • Haha 2

    November Discobs Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Some flurries.. even a few resting on the garbage cans as I brought them down the hill and set them on the curb in hopes that the wind does not relocate the trash that is inside them all over the street! 30/18 - I have shocked multiple things due to an indoor humidity of 25%!

     

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