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midatlanticweather

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    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, clskinsfan said:

    The GFS is really active throughout the run. With multiple chances for frozen for the western burbs and multiple coastals. Temps are an issue. But that makes sense for December. But we are in for a fun few weeks of tracking it looks like. 

    Also makes sense when we get blocks! Things do not just ride out to sea without some chance of getting us involved. So true about the climo! The cold is just cold enough to snow, which means it is also just warm enough to not!

     

    • Like 2

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

    with the trends thus far does anybody worry that the bullseye pushes to far south and east?

    There are all KINDS of worries.. We are modeling way too far to get the specifics figured out. The jackpots and rain/snow lines can adjust radically.. we just are watching trends and excited when it snows in our back yards.. Details are coming! The consistency is a great sign! The pattern looks great! But we live in a fickle area that can break hearts quickly! 

    But i get the concerns! :) We do not want any bad trends!

     

    • Like 2

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

    Where was she living at the time. Westminster had 11” from that storm. I could see given the circumstances calling that a blizzard!  
     

    January 2000 is a fond memory but not for the same reason as most. I was manning the weather station at PSU Hazleton the day before that storm hit. I remember looking at the vapor loop and comparing it to the guidance and it just wasn’t matching up. I Kept running the loop and thinking “why wouldn’t that just come up based on the flow”. I convinced my friend of such.  I can’t remember the guys name, he replaced Jon Neese when he left psu, but me and my friend were driving the meteorologist who came in to check on the station crazy.  He was dismissing it out of hand  “No chance the models are that wrong at such short lead”.  He didn’t even want to look at what we were trying to show him.  Everyone else was focused on the long range progs for what would be the superbowl storm 5 days later.  The next day we didn’t even have to say a word.  We walked in and just looked at him and he said “I know don’t say it”  

     

       

    A friend of mine that worked in the Climate Analysis Center emailed me that morning and said he felt the models were wrong. I watched it for a bit and then called all my plowing buddies by noon and told them to get ready for a surprise snowstorm. Called my parents in Richmond and told them to go to the store well before any forecasts had updated. Was a fun system to watch, but it was in a drier band in Eastern Loudoun so I only had 10 inches when further west had about 6 inches more and, well, it was so awesome up near Baltimore. Was a fun one to watch and enjoy!

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