midatlanticweather

IBM Deep Thunder was shared somewhere! Posting to refer back to.. will this be something to use later? I dunno.. interesting Nonetheless.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GFS op is stubbornly not wanting to flip the AO or NAO negative... again it does it by reverting the pacific pattern which relieves the forcing on the high lat from the EPO side which prevents the atlantic ridge from retrograding and the AO remains negative...transient cold then the east goes back into pac puke ridge.  Just an op at range but its been doing it for several runs in a row.  

ninja'd by @Bob Chill

Multiple runs is alarming for sure. Hoping ensembles do not agree and we see this go away next run!

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was a really nice event... from a few days out models were forecasting rain even though we had an arctic blast with below 0 temps the day before but the main wave was taking a west track.  Then as we got inside 72 hours the guidance started trending colder and colder...but it wasn't really the track that changed just the guidance started to see the cold wasn't going to be evacuated so quick and we would get a nice WAA thump.  In the end I had about 7" up here...some places just south of me in central MD got about a foot.  I think DC and Baltimore ended up with like 4-6".  Then we got some ice on top just to protect our snowpack!  One of the best late positive trend fluke bootleg track storms ever!

It kind of reminded me a little of the one frontal wave system in 1994 that dumped a foot of snow just north of our area in PA from a west track...only displaced slightly south.  If you put arctic air in the way of a storm it gives us a lot more wiggle room for flaws.  

Yep! Remember it well! Started off cold and almost powdery, and slowly got wetter and then some freezing drizzle/light rain at the end, but got my snow and I was surprised I barely had any rain or melt! Did the ULL also get involved later for some regions? I seem to remember people turning back to snow, but I never got any love from that part of the storm.

10 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Found the courage to post again, after that horrific bust last weekend. Most folks underdid snow, but mine was a dry dumpster fire. 

The models led us astray! That secondary thump Sunday evening was much better than anyone expected. In our world, if you are gonna bust, bust low! We all love over performers.. we all hate the letdown of too little when so much more was forecast! Welcome back - live, learn, grow! Lifetime goals! We all like you to be here! Post away!

Gfs 1 to 2?

1 hour ago, Ji said:

the 3 towns that irk me the most when they get more snow is Raleigh, Richmond and Columbus

Anything south of my latitude and east of the apps irks me. 

1 minute ago, PivotPoint said:

Right, I’m not expecting any miracle solutions. PA north is definitely favored and borderline with 24th storm. But it would surprise me if by this weekend we saw that 24th trending a little better based off the seasonality of recent forecasts.

Could just be wishful thinking on my part too...

Yes! Sorry - not trying to be a pessimist - if something different is going to happen, I would not expect big changes unless we see Thursday's system do something crazy! 

Hoping the extended gets better!

1 minute ago, PivotPoint said:

I will say looking at the ops past 24hrs I know they are showing some amped up solutions.

Makes sense with the WAR, MJO, etc. However if you put any stock in seasonal trends (I put some) there appears to be a slightly favored disposition for models this season to under play confluence to the north in the long range. We’ve been cycling through these high pressures to our north pretty consistently this winter. So I wouldn’t rule out front end scenarios delivering a couple inches here and there until the WAR cycles up to the NAO domain and turns us negative (hopefully).

Long and short of it is I wouldnt rule out any day 5+ ops showing all warm side precip which could changing slightly to our favor given a seasonal trend to over amplify these systems and models not truly recognize the strength of these highs till medium leads. 2 cents 

I would say the trend is to have the snow bullseye too far south! makes southern PA in jeopardy unless we see a big change soon

In case anyone missed this! LOL

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A little fuzzy with specific details of 13-14 but I'm recalling periods in late Jan through Mar where long and mid range rain turned into snow as we got to shorter leads. The pattern in the long range was advertised to flip hostile multiple times but got pushed back from early Feb to the end of Mar. lol

My favorite line from that year by you @Bob Chill was that if the atmosphere would fart and it would somehow snow on us. I laughed and laughed, but it was a special time! Never had I seen so many systems start as rain and NE snow storms on forecast models, push south and cause us snow! It did it again and again, and even one time pushed from New York snow to the southern half of Va! Fun times!

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Storm doesn't look all that windy in northern New England.

Ya - ok - I just ran through it - the cold is rough! LOL!

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I am taking my son skiing this weekend...first ski trip together.  He is really excited.  But I am not stressing this storm because we can go anywhere from PA all the way up to Vermont depending on where this storm dumps the best powder...obviously I would prefer it be here but I won't mind being in Vermont skiing with my son in a foot of powder if it comes to that.  

I would not be thinking of the powder being the issue - the insane winds and blizzard conditions may make skiing a bit more challenging! Those isobars are packed tight!

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The storm next weekend is pretty much toast...unless the energy comes out in pieces and we get a trailing wave the lead wave is extremely likely to go to our west.  

It is more like soggy cold bread - and all snow traces get washed away before the ground becomes frozen solid . But agree.. the set up is poor. Would need a miracle to change! 

10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m wondering when a thread might be started for the 20th-21st?  I get that we don’t like to jinx our threats, but it looks like there is either going to be rain then a flash freeze and then snow, or snow, rain, ice, or whatever. My concern is that a lot of people are traveling for the MLK weekend..  it’s now 6 days away. 

Way too many unknowns. About all we can really say is that a threat exists and it maybe a flash freeze, snow, ice possible but could be rain and a quick cutoff (we do not do post-frontal snow all that well). We have to get closer to the event and have some sense of consistency. If we lived in PA or north, I would consider it more something worth it. I think we are 2 days (at least) early on this idea. 

Should we start a new Mid long term and stretch long range? This one got muddy and ugly there and things are different than they looked at one time. 138 pages is a huge thread!

We need to be cleaner in general! We banter too many times (guilty myself) - and the bad vibes of the last page just suck for everyone!

Wonder if the GL are ice covered? I guess they would have to be.. NOAA is not sharing since it is shut down! If they are open at all, they will close completely soon! Wow

45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Vast majority of hits on the gefs are from the trailing low. It's warming up to the idea pretty quick here. First thing that came to mind when the euro showed the trailing piece. Now the 18z gfs twins did it, and then there's this gefs panel... look at all those trailers... 

Lead wave is almost a lock to bring rain but the setup has become much more intriguing. Haven't seen a legit flash freeze in a long time. Glaciers are a lot of fun. My favorite memory of Feb 2007 was the glacier that stayed for what? Couple weeks?

 

This is really cool! Euro/FV-3 were showing this a few days back as well (although not sure the evolution was the same) - maybe it lost the idea and now it is back to stay! I am sure this will all be figured out Monday morning!

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

53 degrees at 7 AM with rain and then 15 degrees at 1 PM with heavy ice/snow. Sounds unlikely lol

Thundersnows?? 

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS is identical. It's happening unless it doesn't

Surely you can't be serious!

I am serious and do not call me Shirley!

5 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Hopefully like that Feb '15 cold front.

That was a wild one! I was in Fairfax and drove through the front with the blinding snow home - warm when I git in the car, freezing on the other side in about 40 mins.

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The whole thing is a razor's edge for our latitude. I'm not making any guesses other than I doubt our area is entirely rain everywhere. That's about it. 

The thurs/fri deal was strong on the Icon and pulled down colder air behind it. That piece will at least partially seal our fate. 

Just catching up after the second dig out from yesterday. But yes - cold air - the key! Want better trends! Hate pure ice.

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Nah, thinking he's referring to the low and trough dropping deeper south. 

exactly! Could bring the storm more in a favorable position for us or draw in more cold air. 

Final for me would be 8.4 on the ground. I am certain that would have been higher had there not been compaction and melting during the day.

Huge truth here!

Is that back building going on west of the WV Band, or am I hallucinating?

ETA: Ninja'd! Wow! Lets keep the fun rolling!