midatlanticweather

Let's hope the second Ice Storm in a week does not come true for Richmond area! Would be just awful! 

Amazing 

Was mixing Rain and sleet, but seems to be almost all sleet at the moment Purcellville. 28/23

Precip amounts

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Reaper Call?

Still too early! Just tired of the tracking, model watching, and disappointment! Worse than usual! Kind of want a break! Wish it was earlier in winter though

The weather is broken! I am sick of the riding the fence crap and the DC area snow hole.. Bring on Spring at this rate. 

About 0.5" from wave 1. But still great to take a walk as the ground remains white! And then this guy showed up!

So the snow that the GFS showed in northern Virginia yesterday appears to have gone north. @Ji I think we are cursed 

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What part of this winter has been nina like?  I am equally frustrated with getting snow into the coastal plain because I want to enjoy this and its difficult when so many around you are rightfully in a piss mood.  But we had a month straight with a deep -NAO and an eastern trough and it did no good.  And everyone said lets get the TPV into N America and try waves.  So now we have that pattern...and the waves are all directed right at us...but it might be too warm along the coastal plain and so....what...what now?  You want that TPV over top of us instead of in the midwest....then its just cold/dry.  We want the boundary running trough our area.  What pattern are we looking for now?  What haven't we tried yet?  Here is the thing that frustrates me and troubles me...the "pattern" DC wants for snow is the same as mine.  From 15 days away the h5 look we want is identical.  Historically we get snow from the same storms mostly.  Yes I get more...but historically if I get a 12" snowstorm DC doesnt get 0.  But that has happened several times in the last few years!  Historically If I get 12" DC should be getting 4-8".  If I get 8" DC should be getting 2-4".   But we used to share most of the same snowstorms.  Now...I keep getting snow while DC is just rain.  That is not normal...not to the extent its happening now.  Historically a winter that produced 35-40" up here would be 15-20" in and around DC.  The last few times I got 35-40" DC was in the single digits!  So I am not even sure what kind of unicorn pattern we are looking for anymore because we have had a month straight of about the best pattern I could come up with if you gave me the crayons and it has done little good for DC.  

The only thing I think could have helped was the +PNA - But I mean - I want Unicorns.. Agree that this year has been a tough one. We had most all the checklist covered except a few items.. but you should not have to get all right to get some good snows. This has been a suck winter in many ways. But, one storm could get many to Climo, but there are still many, especially easy of 95, totally starving from lack of snow. Crazy year! LA Nina and the ripping and shearing of systems was definitely an issue. And the set up now is not ideal.. but you would think we could get something to break the right way! 

.5" of slop.. bummer

2 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Seems to me based on obs here the sleet/snow line running somewhere around Northern MoCo through central Howard into Baltimore.  Interesting stuff.

Seems this is the line. 

Still sleet/rain mix here in Purcellville. 

And just like that.. flakes have slowed to almost a stop. Surprised by this burst, but that did not last too long! See more building slowly to the west. 

Snowing well out here in Purcellville. Slushing up the pavement and a coating already! Temp is down to 34. Big flakes, but not quite what we say last Sunday. 

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I mean, precip starts in the western area by afternoon. Ok, let’s wait for the euro to fold like a cheap suit.

I say you pull a Leroy Jenkins and start the Obs.. if the Euro tries to throw us something, we can share it there.. but the writing is clear! And we will be seeing echoes soon!!

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Inside 60 hours, the NAM has been money all winter.

Even if not perfect, the output has been a harbinger of eventual outcome. I mean, the model is doing what it is supposed to do.. giving guidance that can be used to make educated forecasts. I am impressed. It is becoming clear that this year, the way things are set up, it is a model that needs respect for possibilities. No model is perfect, but they do let you know what to watch for... Much more respect. I feel @ers-wxman1  should chime in as he saw the merit to it in the first storm.

44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We having fun yet? It's comical man. First slug didnt get consenus until 7 hours ago and it broke mostly the right way. Instead of celebrating that, seems the focus is on the second piece that is still 36-48 hours away. I can't participate in a mental health clinic. I try to present very sound reasons why strapping into the emotional roller coaster too early is dumb but not one person who actually needs the advice listens. There is a lot of irony on this forum. It becomes 5x more apparent after an extended break.

You are good man! I appreciate the input! BTW - @Ji and I are in the dead zone! LOL! Amazing! You do a good job of posting strategically. But who posts is like a Machine Learning algorithm on whether something looks good or bad!

What a crazy time! 

How do you know a storm is likely a dud? All the red taggers disappear! Bob goes back into hibernation. PSU may post when someone's reasoning is way off, but he becomes a lurker. Every weenie becomes a wishcaster and thinks they can will a storm in the right direction. And the mood is so low as the chase has died. Depressing

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

First wave still moving north it seems...12z could be interesting or heartbreaking

 

I was thinking the same thing

GFS is lost with all the waves of energy and the sprawling Highs. 

Come on GFS to make us feel a bit better.. then the EURO for the real better feel. NEED THAT NORTH TREND.. on Wave 2

NAM almost has the nightmare scenario ! Too far south for wave 1 and too far north for wave 2!

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Doesn't this kind of make more sense though for typical "climo" on these kinds of very weak non amplifying WAA waves?  I don't remember too many like this that produced a foot of snow around here like the Euro was tossing out for days.  Maybe I am forgetting some...but these are more typically light to moderate events.  

I am no met, but I was mentioning yesterday that these waves, from what I remember, are 3 to 5 inch snows.. the difference here is there were two waves instead of one which was doing better! Jut my 2 cents... This wave still looks like an overperformer for those perfectly set up. Again, not a met.. just going from memory

Congrats @Ji east of the mountains! Lol. 

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Nice hit from 51-54 NOVA/DC. Virtually nothing south of that so far though. 

Seems everything shifted north. Mix line is on the dooratep here in Loudoun