midatlanticweather

Well that was not a good model run to sleep on! DANGIT!!!!!!!

So many things did not go our way! The KEY TELLTALE should have been that we were in the jackpot too early! So many times things shift north.. and we need that cushion. The 50/50 and the high location as well as the cold air source were just all bad.. including low placement! 

I do hope many get pummeled ! We know where that is!

The board is deafening quiet. Did the 18z Euro start? I have no access.. was looking for some insight

Alright! Hoping for a Euro Christmas Present!

Kiss of Death! LOL!

DT Map

So.. What should we be looking for to see it trend better? 

Better 50/50? 

Closes off 850 sooner? 

Further south track? 

All the above? 

This thing is bleeding westward at an alarming rate since yesterday. We have had some glimpses of hope in an otherwise telltale sign. 

THE GFS HAS BEGUN

Great stat! 

The NAM is a problem.. While I do not trust the NAM output for QPF amounts, I do trust it for keys to temp profiles (especially CAD) and low placement. We always have the "We got NAM'd" comments when the precip goes nuts! The key take away from this is, Does the temp profile support snow? I think @ers-wxman1 made great points! I just want to see better trends, but the trends of these 12z models could set the tone for the rest! We need to see the Bernie Rano windshield wiper effect start to go the other way! Otherwise, if it does creep back south and east,  it has too far to swing! 

No mixing yet, but when I look on the windshield there are little ice in the raindrops. Some of those drops are huge! A while to go before we see true slush balls. 37.8/37

4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

This may be a dumb question, but how exactly do we definte the fall line?  In VA, would it be Rt. 15?  Rt. 28?  Great Falls?

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Just now, jaydreb said:

This may be a dumb question, but how exactly do we definte the fall line?  In VA, would it be Rt. 15?  Rt. 28?  Great Falls?

I-95 is about the fall line. It is a bit west of that. You can wiki it. Great falls is a result of the falls, but it used to be a bit east of that

2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

I don't have access but I read on another forum that the gfs-para is a good hit for both storms.... I hope they meant mid mid Atlantic  and not NEPA or something. 

You do have access. Go to Pivotalweather.com 

Come on 18z Euro.. Keep hope alive

Weenie run!!! WOOO! 

The low looks to have bombed as it gets up in the favored spot! 

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS is toasty. 850's are cooking until the rates really get going. White rain most likely?

Ya.. But it is trying to go boom off the coast... Which leads us to the other thread! Lol

Looks juiced on gfs as well. That looks like rain for us on that trajectory.

Well, except north and west. Pretty good rates at the end

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I feel a nuclear assault inbound via GFS shortly.

I feel this is a critical run because of Monday impacts. We should see a better idea of what happens Monday to set the stage for Wednesday.. But, if a rug can be pulled, football picked up, or whatever, this may give us some insight. Just my 2 cents. 

18z EURO worth a look from anyone who has access?

1 minute ago, Treckasec said:

It's... Not the best for snow :O) It gets hyped up quite a bit, but it tends to overdo snowfall

 

Oh crap! It is Deep Thunder! Ya, not good! I did not know it was the same for some reason! LOL! Ya, tends to be crap.

Who has access to this model? Is it worth looking at?

Because we are map happy here, and somebody was asking for this earlier!

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Who wants snow Monday if we can get 18 inches Wednesday 

We all do. You know this.. Lol 

I have to say it! INCOMING! Looks good!