midatlanticweather

Just now, jaydreb said:

This may be a dumb question, but how exactly do we definte the fall line?  In VA, would it be Rt. 15?  Rt. 28?  Great Falls?

I-95 is about the fall line. It is a bit west of that. You can wiki it. Great falls is a result of the falls, but it used to be a bit east of that

2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

I don't have access but I read on another forum that the gfs-para is a good hit for both storms.... I hope they meant mid mid Atlantic  and not NEPA or something. 

You do have access. Go to Pivotalweather.com 

Come on 18z Euro.. Keep hope alive

Weenie run!!! WOOO! 

The low looks to have bombed as it gets up in the favored spot! 

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS is toasty. 850's are cooking until the rates really get going. White rain most likely?

Ya.. But it is trying to go boom off the coast... Which leads us to the other thread! Lol

Looks juiced on gfs as well. That looks like rain for us on that trajectory.

Well, except north and west. Pretty good rates at the end

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I feel a nuclear assault inbound via GFS shortly.

I feel this is a critical run because of Monday impacts. We should see a better idea of what happens Monday to set the stage for Wednesday.. But, if a rug can be pulled, football picked up, or whatever, this may give us some insight. Just my 2 cents. 

18z EURO worth a look from anyone who has access?

1 minute ago, Treckasec said:

It's... Not the best for snow :O) It gets hyped up quite a bit, but it tends to overdo snowfall

 

Oh crap! It is Deep Thunder! Ya, not good! I did not know it was the same for some reason! LOL! Ya, tends to be crap.

Who has access to this model? Is it worth looking at?

Because we are map happy here, and somebody was asking for this earlier!

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Who wants snow Monday if we can get 18 inches Wednesday 

We all do. You know this.. Lol 

I have to say it! INCOMING! Looks good! 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

The GFS is really active throughout the run. With multiple chances for frozen for the western burbs and multiple coastals. Temps are an issue. But that makes sense for December. But we are in for a fun few weeks of tracking it looks like. 

Also makes sense when we get blocks! Things do not just ride out to sea without some chance of getting us involved. So true about the climo! The cold is just cold enough to snow, which means it is also just warm enough to not!

1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

with the trends thus far does anybody worry that the bullseye pushes to far south and east?

There are all KINDS of worries.. We are modeling way too far to get the specifics figured out. The jackpots and rain/snow lines can adjust radically.. we just are watching trends and excited when it snows in our back yards.. Details are coming! The consistency is a great sign! The pattern looks great! But we live in a fickle area that can break hearts quickly! 

But i get the concerns!  We do not want any bad trends!

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

To my eye, it does 3 things....kills the primary quicker, coastal gets cracking sooner, AND high pressure is stronger and better placed. 

Basically, ideal.. too perfect! Would love it to be true though

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I'd feel so much better if the Icon was onboard

I would need a map to approve as well!

I will keep banter to a minimum! But you are on a roll today!

Let's see what Dr No says before a thread on Monday.

Total precip output was too low for my liking, but this definitely looked good!

About the way I feel when it snows!

https://www.theburn.com/2020/12/11/ashburn-boy-really-really-excited-about-seasons-first-flurries

Where did @Bob ChiII and @showmethesnow go? 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Where was she living at the time. Westminster had 11” from that storm. I could see given the circumstances calling that a blizzard!  
 

January 2000 is a fond memory but not for the same reason as most. I was manning the weather station at PSU Hazleton the day before that storm hit. I remember looking at the vapor loop and comparing it to the guidance and it just wasn’t matching up. I Kept running the loop and thinking “why wouldn’t that just come up based on the flow”. I convinced my friend of such.  I can’t remember the guys name, he replaced Jon Neese when he left psu, but me and my friend were driving the meteorologist who came in to check on the station crazy.  He was dismissing it out of hand  “No chance the models are that wrong at such short lead”.  He didn’t even want to look at what we were trying to show him.  Everyone else was focused on the long range progs for what would be the superbowl storm 5 days later.  The next day we didn’t even have to say a word.  We walked in and just looked at him and he said “I know don’t say it”  

 

   

A friend of mine that worked in the Climate Analysis Center emailed me that morning and said he felt the models were wrong. I watched it for a bit and then called all my plowing buddies by noon and told them to get ready for a surprise snowstorm. Called my parents in Richmond and told them to go to the store well before any forecasts had updated. Was a fun system to watch, but it was in a drier band in Eastern Loudoun so I only had 10 inches when further west had about 6 inches more and, well, it was so awesome up near Baltimore. Was a fun one to watch and enjoy!

Super dry out there, but a wild sunrise! Temps bottomed out at 29.5 degrees. If you look at the radar out of state college you can see the snow aloft! Oh well. 

GFS and a stupid GL low! That thing always causes problems. BUT, I put no stock in any of this.. as @Ji can attest! I must not believe anything.. I will jinx it.

Interesting nonetheless.. lots of time for failure