midatlanticweather

So the snow that the GFS showed in northern Virginia yesterday appears to have gone north. @Ji I think we are cursed 

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What part of this winter has been nina like?  I am equally frustrated with getting snow into the coastal plain because I want to enjoy this and its difficult when so many around you are rightfully in a piss mood.  But we had a month straight with a deep -NAO and an eastern trough and it did no good.  And everyone said lets get the TPV into N America and try waves.  So now we have that pattern...and the waves are all directed right at us...but it might be too warm along the coastal plain and so....what...what now?  You want that TPV over top of us instead of in the midwest....then its just cold/dry.  We want the boundary running trough our area.  What pattern are we looking for now?  What haven't we tried yet?  Here is the thing that frustrates me and troubles me...the "pattern" DC wants for snow is the same as mine.  From 15 days away the h5 look we want is identical.  Historically we get snow from the same storms mostly.  Yes I get more...but historically if I get a 12" snowstorm DC doesnt get 0.  But that has happened several times in the last few years!  Historically If I get 12" DC should be getting 4-8".  If I get 8" DC should be getting 2-4".   But we used to share most of the same snowstorms.  Now...I keep getting snow while DC is just rain.  That is not normal...not to the extent its happening now.  Historically a winter that produced 35-40" up here would be 15-20" in and around DC.  The last few times I got 35-40" DC was in the single digits!  So I am not even sure what kind of unicorn pattern we are looking for anymore because we have had a month straight of about the best pattern I could come up with if you gave me the crayons and it has done little good for DC.  

The only thing I think could have helped was the +PNA - But I mean - I want Unicorns.. Agree that this year has been a tough one. We had most all the checklist covered except a few items.. but you should not have to get all right to get some good snows. This has been a suck winter in many ways. But, one storm could get many to Climo, but there are still many, especially easy of 95, totally starving from lack of snow. Crazy year! LA Nina and the ripping and shearing of systems was definitely an issue. And the set up now is not ideal.. but you would think we could get something to break the right way! 

.5" of slop.. bummer

2 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Seems to me based on obs here the sleet/snow line running somewhere around Northern MoCo through central Howard into Baltimore.  Interesting stuff.

Seems this is the line. 

Still sleet/rain mix here in Purcellville. 

And just like that.. flakes have slowed to almost a stop. Surprised by this burst, but that did not last too long! See more building slowly to the west. 

Snowing well out here in Purcellville. Slushing up the pavement and a coating already! Temp is down to 34. Big flakes, but not quite what we say last Sunday. 

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I mean, precip starts in the western area by afternoon. Ok, let’s wait for the euro to fold like a cheap suit.

I say you pull a Leroy Jenkins and start the Obs.. if the Euro tries to throw us something, we can share it there.. but the writing is clear! And we will be seeing echoes soon!!

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Inside 60 hours, the NAM has been money all winter.

Even if not perfect, the output has been a harbinger of eventual outcome. I mean, the model is doing what it is supposed to do.. giving guidance that can be used to make educated forecasts. I am impressed. It is becoming clear that this year, the way things are set up, it is a model that needs respect for possibilities. No model is perfect, but they do let you know what to watch for... Much more respect. I feel @ers-wxman1  should chime in as he saw the merit to it in the first storm.

44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We having fun yet? It's comical man. First slug didnt get consenus until 7 hours ago and it broke mostly the right way. Instead of celebrating that, seems the focus is on the second piece that is still 36-48 hours away. I can't participate in a mental health clinic. I try to present very sound reasons why strapping into the emotional roller coaster too early is dumb but not one person who actually needs the advice listens. There is a lot of irony on this forum. It becomes 5x more apparent after an extended break.

You are good man! I appreciate the input! BTW - @Ji and I are in the dead zone! LOL! Amazing! You do a good job of posting strategically. But who posts is like a Machine Learning algorithm on whether something looks good or bad!

What a crazy time! 

How do you know a storm is likely a dud? All the red taggers disappear! Bob goes back into hibernation. PSU may post when someone's reasoning is way off, but he becomes a lurker. Every weenie becomes a wishcaster and thinks they can will a storm in the right direction. And the mood is so low as the chase has died. Depressing

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

First wave still moving north it seems...12z could be interesting or heartbreaking

 

I was thinking the same thing

GFS is lost with all the waves of energy and the sprawling Highs. 

Come on GFS to make us feel a bit better.. then the EURO for the real better feel. NEED THAT NORTH TREND.. on Wave 2

NAM almost has the nightmare scenario ! Too far south for wave 1 and too far north for wave 2!

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Doesn't this kind of make more sense though for typical "climo" on these kinds of very weak non amplifying WAA waves?  I don't remember too many like this that produced a foot of snow around here like the Euro was tossing out for days.  Maybe I am forgetting some...but these are more typically light to moderate events.  

I am no met, but I was mentioning yesterday that these waves, from what I remember, are 3 to 5 inch snows.. the difference here is there were two waves instead of one which was doing better! Jut my 2 cents... This wave still looks like an overperformer for those perfectly set up. Again, not a met.. just going from memory

Congrats @Ji east of the mountains! Lol. 

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Nice hit from 51-54 NOVA/DC. Virtually nothing south of that so far though. 

Seems everything shifted north. Mix line is on the dooratep here in Loudoun 

37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

First wave is interesting it's an almost indiscernible impulse ejecting out of the desert sw and zipping along with the jet across the country waaay out in front of the digging shortwave. Normally things like that don't even cause precip here but the lucky connection with the gulf and bouncing up againt cold air makes it an event anyway. Sometimes it just wants to snow. 

Most favorite quote from you in the 2013 - 2014 epic year was that if the atmosphere farted, we got snow! I still laugh at that!! Some similarities, in a way, to what we are seeing in this stretch.

HH GFS Ensembles? Anyone got maps? Yep.. I am in a meeting! LOL! Where is the Bingo card on this event?

If my memory serves me (and it may not) waves like this are usually 3 to 5 inch events (higher in the higher spots).. So we get two, which would net 6 to 10 inches (maybe?).. I would think. A long while ago in the early 90s (yep..) I remember tracking one of something like this and it was a 3 to 6 inch event .. I was an intern at the Climate Analysis Center at the time... but it quickly moved through. So two, seems like a double of the same thing. On to the model analysis! 

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

94 was a huge fail. Topper Shutt literally said on the 11pm news that they sent weather balloons up and it was going to be snow. 12 inches. 5 minutes later...i hear sleet pellets and thats all it did for that storm. 5 inches of sleet while Newwark, NJ got 20 plus. 

Remember it very well! Sleet bomb it was! Looked like sand when the salt and sand was on the sleet. Nasty stuff.

For one last look. Pivotal

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Blot out the sun, throw in some snow and it sounds like heaven

Let's hope for just snow!

Snow is melting so fast. We have had OK rates off and on. Measured a while back and had 2 inches. Measured again and can see it has compacted and melted. Stuck a 2 inches. Snowed a lot more than 2 inches by now.