midatlanticweather

I would say 60% snow, 20% snow pellets, 20% sleet... Coming down pretty hard. 

Temps have come up 2 degrees! 26/15 in Purcellville

Weeniecast time! Now is the time we all realize the worst, and will hug and share every snowy model there is! In every storm, this is the what is predictable!

This should probably be banter! But so is sharing every snowy model that is unlikely to verify!

24/15 - Purcellville Cold!

Para will save winter (I hope) 

28/16 - Thinking I end up with about 4 - 5" of snow/sleet 

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It was a single storm iirc and was on the tail of a snow heater in that wild progressive pattern. None of us really drilled down on it leading in. We were kinda burned out from other storms and this one had literally no high pressure to our north. All return flow from the arctic high sliding off the coast. 99.9% of those storms would be a mix and mess everywhere at best. It was such a legit airmass we capitalized when we really shouldnt have. Thats as much as this old guy can remember 

I remember something like this and then the ULL ended up giving many some excitement but missed my backyard. Was also an inland runner and unexpected that it would stay snow. 

Just now, Deck Pic said:

In terms of forecasting, I'm pretty much hugging the euro at this point, other than it may be a little dry.  I don''t have any confidence in the American models right now.  There is way too much disparity between  Hi res/Lo Res, Para/OP

This has been a tough winter with models and a lot of strange behaviors. Very happy that systems are spotted ahead of time, but final placements of bands of snow and warm layers seem last minute. I expect the typical northward trends, but they have been in both directions this year. I thought this was going to be a bit less complicated. But so many variables, and there are good reasons for the challenges, but we really are the battle ground for this year. I guess we always are. Makes it fun and exhausting at the same time. This is probably banter 

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

We take

 

Hoping the Para schools all the models for this event. But weeniecasting now. 

34/17 Purcellville

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wtf is that BS?  That better be a 1 hour snowfall map! 

You may be right! Seems to snow for just one hour.

Just now, Ji said:

for all the talk of sleet...there isnt much of it. I get sleet for maybe an hour and then the main part of the storm ends

Not much to love on the models today... unless we trust the Para

23/13 Purcellville. Hoping for the best 

Gonna be really sad if we get in the middle of the two slugs of precipitation again. Not that I should be surprised, but just seems to be a crazy thing around here! 

Also a quick hitter - outta there by 4pm

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Man. I dont know what the precip type is at 39 on this crappy map. But the NAM is wet as hell.

You are already at 7 inches at 39hrs

Just now, Ji said:

dang. its so weird to trend well

This looks like the padding we need for the dreaded shift... but we have the NAM to continue the concern as well. It is great to see these all in our favor.. need 0Z to hold or improve more!

31/20 and a wind chill of 19... 

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Winds ripping pretty good in Westminster. Temp down to 37. 

34 out here and cold winds! 25 mph and gusts a lot higher

Brrrr outside

I approve of this message! NOW - can every other model please fall in line with this please?

Just now, Ji said:

isnt it about trends now and not the final forecast?

We needed a big shift south though! Because we know the inevitable tomorrow! 

Just for some closer looks

Well this Stinks - Trends went poorly overnight. Hopeful they stabilize or reverse a little bit today. Starting to get fuel myself based on that correction. Euro has been running cold. Nam has led the way on most systems this year. If the event were imminent I would be happy with the set up for MBY...but this has the Lucy feel on snow. It will be a Significant storm.. But I think deep down we see and know what is happening here. 

Just now, snowfan said:

Watches already up to our SW in VA.

I am certain they are trying to get people's attention because they are still recovering from the last event and may be just focused on that. Power companies have to be crying. Fuel companies have to be grinning ear to ear.