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midatlanticweather

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    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

    Where was she living at the time. Westminster had 11” from that storm. I could see given the circumstances calling that a blizzard!  
     

    January 2000 is a fond memory but not for the same reason as most. I was manning the weather station at PSU Hazleton the day before that storm hit. I remember looking at the vapor loop and comparing it to the guidance and it just wasn’t matching up. I Kept running the loop and thinking “why wouldn’t that just come up based on the flow”. I convinced my friend of such.  I can’t remember the guys name, he replaced Jon Neese when he left psu, but me and my friend were driving the meteorologist who came in to check on the station crazy.  He was dismissing it out of hand  “No chance the models are that wrong at such short lead”.  He didn’t even want to look at what we were trying to show him.  Everyone else was focused on the long range progs for what would be the superbowl storm 5 days later.  The next day we didn’t even have to say a word.  We walked in and just looked at him and he said “I know don’t say it”  

     

       

    A friend of mine that worked in the Climate Analysis Center emailed me that morning and said he felt the models were wrong. I watched it for a bit and then called all my plowing buddies by noon and told them to get ready for a surprise snowstorm. Called my parents in Richmond and told them to go to the store well before any forecasts had updated. Was a fun system to watch, but it was in a drier band in Eastern Loudoun so I only had 10 inches when further west had about 6 inches more and, well, it was so awesome up near Baltimore. Was a fun one to watch and enjoy!

    November Discobs 2020

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Wet! 

    Graphic for MPD #0856

    https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0856&yr=2020 

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0856
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
534 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

Areas affected...far eastern TN, western NC into western/central
VA and southern MD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 112228Z - 120425Z

Summary...Flash flooding is expected from far eastern TN and
western NC as well as western and central VA into southern MD
through 04Z from an additional 2-4 inches of rain, on top of a
broad 1-3 inches which has fallen over the past 12-24 hours.

Discussion...22Z surface observations showed that a cold front
extended from western PA into northwestern GA, or just west of the
spine of the Appalachians. Moisture was highly anomalous for
November to the east of the front, with precipitable water values
ranging from 1.5 in western VA/NC to over 2 inches in
central/southeastern VA. In addition, MUCAPE was estimated to be
in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range across a broad section of the warm
sector, with CAPE values having increased 200-400 J/kg across much
of VA and MD over the past 3 hours via low level moisture
transport according to the 21Z SPC mesoanalysis. Southwesterly 850
mb flow was observed in the 20-35 kt range from western NC into
western/central VA via recent VAD wind plots.

As the cold front continues eastward early tonight, broad low
level directional confluence/speed convergence, extending from
western NC into western/central VA and southern MD, will support
an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. This
will occur beneath strengthening upper level divergence and
diffluence, located on the southern end of an upper level jet
streak, with a peak magnitude of 150-170 kt in southern Quebec.
850-300 mb flow, a proxy for cell motions, is parallel to the axis
of low level convergence, which will support repeating and brief
training of cells at times. With the degree of moisture and
instability in place, peak rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be
possible with a few locations picking up an additional 2-4 inches
of rain by 04Z. Recent heavy rain over the past 12-24 hours has
lowered flash flood guidance values across a large portion of the
MPD threat area to 1 inch or less in 1 and 3 hours. Given the low
flash flood guidance, flash flooding is considered likely.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38997703 38627659 38257660 37087900 36667996
            36128119 35788239 35828262 36028268 36508197
            37048115 37947971 38517804

    November Banter 2020

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Not too bad in Purcellville. I was able to vote in about 5 minutes. There was supposedly a line at 6am. There were only about 1400 people left at my polling place left to vote (early voting must have really worked) and I was #143 at 7:30am. Get out and vote!

     

     

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