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midatlanticweather

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Posts posted by midatlanticweather

    January 12-14, 2019 Storm Threat

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, leesburg 04 said:

    Every year it's so funny....during the model run this looks great, boy that's improved, wow....then bang. It's worse....so dang classic :)

    This was a mixed message - better coverage - less fringworthy - but less QPF.. now we need the QPF to step up a notch or two - as every southern system has seemed to do (at least when it rains) and we will all do a snow dance!

     

    January 12-14, 2019 Storm Threat

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Pretty evenly distributed .3-.4 through our region. Trimmed back from 0z. That's 2 in a row with decreasing qpf in general. 

    Boooo... that is not a trend I want to see continue. It looked better for coverage, but less for output.

    Your post above (before this one) said 0Z as well - I know you meant 12Z

    January 12-14, 2019 Storm Threat

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

    We can probably just blend ops at this point. The wide spread on the ensembles adds more confusion than it helps. If we see any legit trend towards a coastal runner then we can start talking about big hits but for now it seems that a light to maybe moderate event is the most likely by far. 

    It gets easy to put on weenie glasses when looking at the models. Also, the desired and believed North trend. Nothing seems to point to shutout, but we are not super far from something more substantial. I am ok with a light snow when I was thinking it was a long shot last week, but we always think the chances of snow in the region are limited, so we want to capitalize on every opportunity and have it in our back yard. My thinking is just N of Richmond does best and of course SW VA and Mountains are a given. Hoping for the run up the coast though... at least there is a chance!

    January 12-14, 2019 Storm Threat

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    My thinking is somewhere there will stripe with a 3 to 5" - mountains will squeeze a bit more - In general though we will want that stripe north of where it has been heading! We also want the system a bit stronger. I do not think we are thinking much more than this. Outside the 3 to 5" stripe will be a 1 to 3" area.. and then the fringes of course (which we all hope is not in our back yards) I think anything more is wishful thinking.. even this may be wishful thinking! Less is of course possible with the squash factors in place and the strung out look! So we fine tune and hope for a north/stronger trend.. but no one should get too excited or upset. Things are better than they have been!

     

     

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Since early December I was targeting the 15-20th for a pattern change back to cold and snowy.  The way I came to that wasn't that complicated.  I had identified analogs back in the fall.  1958, 1964, 1966, 1969, 1978, 1987, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2015 were my best matches overall.  Threw out 1995 because it was the one clear outlier.  Yea it could happen but when one year sticks out like that its usually an anomaly and better off just tossing it.  A fluke can happen in any year but not going to waste too much time obsessing over it.  1964 was the other anomaly in the other direction in that it was the only year that was wall to wall cold and snowing.  Winter set in mid December and didn't let up.  So I kind of tossed that wrt timing patterns.  For the rest...some of them featured an early cold/snow period then a big warm up, and a couple were just straight warm early on...but they all featured warmth for a significant stretch in December into January then a flip to cold and snow.  So when the warm showed up in December I wasn't surprised or discouraged.  Then timing up the flip back was a matter of looking at the timing of the patterns in those other years and looking at the likely progression of the pattern this year.  Looking at the most similar years regarding when the warmth set in and the progression of the mjo this year the most likely flip back was mid January.  Of course maybe I just got lucky with a good guess lol.  

    But I can't and won't take any credit for a specific event, that is impossible to identify from range.  I love the 20-22 look though.  Before that, the threat this weekend isnt a bad setup, its the sort of thing that can sneak in there during the pattern transition.  It's certainly not the classic see it from a mile away thing but there is enough there to think it has a legit chance.  A lot of moving parts in a fairly progressive transient setup still though so models will struggle.  It's not the kind of thing that will lock in from 7 days out.  

    As for "what history suggests we can expect" I am a bit handicapped by the climate composites being unavailable due to our inability to put responsible adults (ON BOTH SIDES) in charge of our national finances.  Just from my memory back when I was looking at patterns from analog years the closest match to the pattern taking shape day 15 (and expected to evolve after that looking at the CFS and Euro weeklies)  would be perhaps 1964, 1966, 1978 and 2010.  1958 was also close but not until mid February so lets toss that due to timing.  1969 was good on the atlantic side but a pretty crappy pacific with very little EPO/PNA help.  1987 wasn't too bad either but also with less blocking and less EPO help.  2003 and 2015 the blocking was all on the Pacific side.  If we actually get the ridge bride look with blocking in the NAO domain but also higher pressure across to the EPO side...that lines up best with some of our most epic snow periods.  Obviously we remember 2010. 

    1966 after the pattern flip BWI between January 22 and Feb 2 had 2.1", 7.2", 12.1", and 2.7" and then a 8.4" storm later in February also. 

    1978 from January 13th on BWI had 3.7", 2.4", 5.6", 8.5", 2.8", and 4.8".

    So IF we actually get that look to develop it would be pretty difficult for us not to cash in with several snowstorms...and a historic run isn't out of the question.  

     

    You have targeted that timeframe from way back - you and Bob both said that we would probably not have a meaningful flip until the 15th or beyond. So true is this that I scheduled something and noted to the people I was scheduling that we may have weather concerns due to the changes I was thinking may occur around mid-month. So it has been a thought for a while. I honestly thought, with this being an El Nino winter, we would be backloaded. Anything before was gravy, as it always is! We were baited into early belief with the November appetizer and the Carolina/Southern VA Crusher. It makes sense climo-wise as well - which you point out here. 

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