midatlanticweather

Been snowing nicely for about an hour. Mulch is starting to cave.. Grass is getting lighter with slush. Cars covering slowly. 

33.3 degrees

Snowflakes bigger but not all snow. Temps dropping! Down to 34.8 in Purcellville

Traffic Cam at Bears Den on Rt 7 - Along the BR

Cameras on 511de.org are fun to look at! Huge flakes and coated everywhere on most! 

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I am beginning to think that blob west of dc is the inverted trough. 

I think k that is a bit early to be making ten conclusion. I suspect the band gets set up once the low gets cranking

Mixed back with snow now. But temperatures have torched to 37 degrees out here in Purcellville 

Just rain here in Purcellville. It is probably just too light. Temp is up to 36.4 as well. 

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

There’s a “ridge” a mile to the west of me peaking at 475-500 ft, and I haven’t noticed any difference. But if talking about going up past the bigger hill on rt 7 west of leesburg, then yeah they’ve done better. 

Earlier that hill had rain/snow mixed. I am about to head home back in Purcellville but it looks like it is all rain out there now. Looking at security cameras 

In Leesburg. Rain has some bouncy elements to it now. Trying to mix in

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol
No like how much snow is mixing

In Purcellville it was like 70%. 40% up to about rt9. 

In Leesburg now. Light rain. Was rain/snow mix until I went over the hill by rt9

46 minutes ago, Ji said:

What the ratio?

0:1

rain and snow mixed. 35.5 degrees. Lowest we had was 34.9 degrees a few hours ago.

Looks like the short term are seeing the norlun here. It seems to have shifted east since last night but was about there on the Euro as well. 

38/29 - NAM norlun is just to my SW on this run. Was wider previously. Exact location TBD - 

This is when we should see tightening up on the west side for precipitation expansion (I think that is what others have said), so seeing it a little less this way is not a surprise, but it could just be noise! 

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's actually a myth that Nina's favor the coastal areas. Randomness from not enough analogs. The La Nina main effect is a stronger North Pacific High, which is a slight SE ridge correlation in the cold season. The patterns aren't always El nino or La nina either, there are many other factors that cause what happens. 

I suspect a northern stream Miller B is more likely than a juiced Miller A in a Nina pattern. That has been a problem in Nina years.. I agree there are many other factors though and one storm behavior is not a Nina thing in and of itself. That is like a record low or high being used for climate change proof. It is so much more. But, this is not relevant here and likely this is banter

@MillvilleWx - This the area that you are watching for the norlun

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Someone will see a nasty min from this storm, and my guess is it'll be somewhere west of I-83 to about the Catoctins. Norlun trough looks to be priming for west of there near the I-81 corridor from Winchester to the Potomac. We will see, but there will be a nice mini-max where ever that formally sets up. 

Ya.. My backyard.. Lol. I am the eternal pessimist for western Loudoun. There is definitely going to be a gap and the effect of areas nearby losing out due to the way the dynamics work. Hoping to be in the good.. Bug close to being missed.. But too early to be that specific. Thanks for all the details 

Why aren't we looking at the 3km? The 12km is a true NAMing.. 

The surface is way warm. The Kuchera should be checked and the actual snow depth. I suspect way worse

That H5 and track would indicate more precip north and west. Another good run by the gfs. 

Gotta be careful! You do not want too much of a good thing.. because it can pump the warmth. I hope I eat my words

Just now, Solution Man said:

Stop cursing grasshopper 

HA! Will he even get that reference??

4 minutes ago, Shad said:

GFS still with some clown totals.....not the monster totals for 24hrs ago.....mostly seems the models are coming together in agreement.  By the looks of it GFS has destroyed all other models with this event unless something major happens......

DELMARVA disagrees. Still huge there. That jackpot just shifted 

Inverted troughs are jumpy. Still has that feel of a rug pull east for the west guys. I think this has always been the risk, just seeing extra precip is good. Of note, 18z Euro also likes to play with our emotions. It did back with the Carolina storm.. Let's see models actually trend. 

Mr pessimist here.