midatlanticweather

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Barring any pop up surprises we seem to be pretty cooked until the 12th. Time to focus on the New Years’ resolutions that we’re all gonna drop by mid-January before getting back to tracking snow!

Set goals not resolutions!! That is all I have to share. Next few weeks look bad. Resolutions will probably end for most people before the pattern changes again. Even more before mid February. 

West winds shot the temps up!! 58 degrees. Seeing sheltered spots in the 30s nearby. Crazy stuff

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So January cancel is uncancelled? Shocker.

Until tomorrow 

33 minutes ago, bncho said:

Welcome to the world of the super -NAO. Look at THAT trend.

 

At this rate, tomorrow we will be saying congratulations NC! That is a serious south trend

I have decorations down.. it is a massacre of lighted snowmen outside!  - Hoping winds subside soon! Winds have to be gusting to 50+ at times. Lights have been going flickering and had brief outage. 

Am I right that, if there were not an inversion, and we had the right setup (like warm LOL), this would be interesting? 

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I’m starting to wonder if the mesos have a bias for more qpf in the 24 hours leading up to the event. We know the nam does this, but do other mesos have that same bias? I think the HRRR was onto something with the local minima over Loudoun.

I'd the hrrr best suited for snow? It has been great having short term forecasts and seeing updates so rapidly. I have never really trusted it to be right but to help in convective setups. 

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I would have done better had I stuck to my initial forecast. It does look like my thoughts on the max strip from MoCo through SE PA verified warning criteria, but busted for the dmv. Some in the dmv were lucky enough to break an inch, and that would have verified on the low end. Still calling it a bust because precip came a bit early and temps took a while to catch up, and that hurt us from the start. Had it been an hour or so in our favor, we would have added another inch everywhere here. 4” would have been greedy, but a general 1-3” call would have been achieved if the precip band was an hour later. These things come down to luck and timing as always. Glad those to the NE got theirs, though! 

Bummed for our backyards. Suckered in by the model increases and that early burst!  - Hoping January can turn the corner in the long range as Loudoun needs some good snow (And more of the DMV as well)

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Where is the rest of precip gonna come from?

This is starting to look like the end my friend. For our neck of the woods. Sucked in at the last minute by models.. Only to be left with a coating 

At least GFS keeps the cold right after Christmas. The Christmas miracle went away

Things can still change (get worse -- Or better) - happy the non-stop torching does not look to be there. 

In a lull. It kind of looks like it is drying up now to the west and north of me.. It does look pretty with the Christmas lights! 

Big snowflakes and a good amount of snow is falling. Still 32.7 degrees, so the main places with snow are grassy areas and elevated. Everything is coated now, and I walked out to slushy roads and sidewalks due to the rates. 

Steady snow now! 33/32

Spits an spurts of mixes rain and snow in Purcellville. Not steady yet. 35/32

Loudoun is slowly getting into the game for a 1-inch event, with some lollies to 2 or so. Obviously,  better east than west, though elevation is starting to show help. 

38.2/30 

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Models don't usually correct significantly when there is a PNA projected to be -2 to -3 for an extended period of time. Sometimes you will trend toward a better polar orientation (more -EPO), but that doesn't favor deep cold/snow, it just mutes the warmup. 

https://media.tenor.com/2739Fe1Wj-QAAAAM/whomp-whomp.gif

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Gfs with the Christmas Miracle again.  Start a thread!

You know it.. Here come the comments

Sign here

Lock it up

Give me that and call it a winter

The big ones are sniffed out early. 

It all is coming.. Until Dr No or the next run. Lol

Thar she blows! What a windy looking map. 

58 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Take a look around the models, we're on the threshold of hell. Threading needles. I do like where we are at this point.

I am out here in Western Loudoun. It is not looking great. I am betting on fail.

26 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Save the jinx for me, Clark!

let’s reel this 2” snowstorm in! Let me say the grace and get this thread started on positive vibes:

I pledge allegiance to the flag…..

This year has been all about begging for table scraps and nosing around in the trash for even a small amount! I am hoping for crazy ratios and overperformance! I am worried I will just be choking on a bone on Sunday! LOL 

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

the angle of the trough also kinda sucks. it barely gets its shit together in time so we get a neutral tilt but if we want it negative then we'd need it to slow down and dive SW

I think we are out of luck on that. Agreed the trough just is not favorable for much amplification sooner. 30:1 ratios could help. Lol 

I would like it to get it's act together a lot quicker.. I would take anything though. We have wasted way too much cold. 

12.4 for the low. Currently 19. 

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Lol

 

 

I feel every La Nina we look at maps like this and they suck!