midatlanticweather

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I’m such a freak.  I’m becoming more interested in midweek freshener and next weekend than I am with the storm this weekend. 
 

Help

The hunt can be so much fun. I love it too man.. It is an addiction 

2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Weird - that looks more like what they've had all along. 

Did someone let the intern log into the map posting computer and he went rogue?

The first graphic is the whole event. The one with a little less is through 7pm Sunday. 

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, that's a kick in the balls.   BUT...it's the NAM and hopefully it's too dry this far out

We will get nam'd tomorrow night

We are seeing the snow whittled away. Who says we can't fail? We can fail some.. and win some.. just sucks to get sucked in with pretty colors! Still worry about that last pull north before a little recovery. 

But I am the Debbie downer, but these situations stink. 

I have to think that we get that last minute north jump.. and it is a scary point for me. Riding the line this far out is not a good recipe... except for disaster. Warm air seems to sneak north faster and not what you think.. sometimes it is wrong on models, but no cushion is the deal. Front thump looks like the win.. then sleety mess. Crazy we became the edge. We gotta drop that zero line in all levels!

Dang... That is a lot of moisture. Most I have seen on a map since last summer. Let's hope for more cold and that much juice going forwards. Goodness. We do not need more precip than that if we can get the powder to last longer. 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Worst panel. I’ll take my chances. 

I don't think 850 was our warm layer

7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

lol Ji found the Weather Channel Local Forecast Music - Winter 1991 vintage 

https://weatherstar.netbymatt.com/ will do it with your real local data 

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

     

      The NBM does not use Kuchera.   It uses a mix of different SLR techniques.

Does it have a score for accuracy? 

Just now, GreyHat said:

Beats all that ice that was being shown earlier. Models have been all over. I guess things won't be worked out till Friday, the way things are going .

We will know Monday. For sure. 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GEFS is better than the GFS op but still pretty far down on the list of things I care about

I would rank importance in terms of what I weight this way

1)EPS

2)EC AIFS

3)Euro Op

4)UKMET

5)GEPS

6)GEFS

7)GGEM

8) tea leaves

9) wooly bear caterpillars 

10) the almanac

11) Op GFS 

You forgot squirrel indicators... This gets mentioned and I swear Is a factor. 

9 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Not quite as good

Seasonal /yearly trend?? Drier when we get to the day? Seems this region wants to remain in a drought.. I am just sharing as it has been a common trend. 

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

GFS buries everyone with 16-20" and this place is falling apart like we have tornado warnings coming

We want clean snow... It is the unicorn in our region so we should keep our focus on that... As soon as we get warm air intrusions we get alarmed and it is a terrible concern. 

Just now, jwLwx said:

One run, from one model, is suddenly a trend? 

This is not a one run trend. The cutting primary sleet icy look showed up in 0z runs last night

2 minutes ago, Pityflakes said:

Seriously how could we fail at this point?  Nine times of of ten we fail because of BL temps/sun angle/rates/DST/lack of moisture.  Here we have mega cold (up to 750mb) and moisture transport galore.  The other times we fail because we're relying on a coastal that just doesn't get its act together in time or is shunted south at the last minute.  No so here we are 6-12 before the coastal really gets going.  

The storm gets way amped and cuts harder... We can do it.. Do not think we cannot fail. Ever. We have before and we can do it again 

12 minutes ago, T. August said:

Like others are saying, if we can lock in an incredible front-end thump of 10-15” region-wide with 2”/hr rates, I don’t really care if it mixes after the fact. 

No... pure powder is the only thing for me.. I do care... I would care less.. but still care

Low of 7 this morning. Still just 7.3 degrees. Brrr

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Richmond starting to shed inches and angle of precip and heaviest acid is a little more WNW now in VA

Noticing this as well. Staring to like it out our way! 

The NBM keeps ticking higher. 

See you all in a few hours. Thanks for all you all do to make it worth returning. 

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Surface to 850 gets bit above freezing briefly for SE MD and S DE. Don't want the low any further NW though- flow off the ocean is a NO. IDFC what happens down in central S VA lol.

Ya.. Gave me pd2 vibes for a moment.. The sleet mess ruined my storm in Sterling 

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Crazy how it manages to get that snowfall max in the South Central VA while having us mix with freezing rain. Would be a nightmare scenario for well... everyone who has a life they need to do things in. 

The glacial outcome from the follow up cold is going to make it brutal.. 

HH brought the goods. Thanks for the pbp

8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

The 2016 blizzard obviously was a totally different animal.  Mainly it was a far better-defined scenario (and a Nino) that the models can handle more easily.  I've said this before, but I swear a week before it hit while looking at model discussion on this site, every single model clicked into place for a MAJOR event.  It was only the details that were to be determined.  But we ALL knew it was coming, and game on right then.  From that point the models really didn't waver outside those fine details.  I believe Feb. 2010 (the first one, Feb. 5-6) was similar, long lead where it was well pinned down what was coming.

There was that one GFS off run (hmmm - kind of similar!) with it south... only to turn around and bring the big stuff... MAN! Remember the radio show before that one!  DT was on it when he was kind of tolerable... LOL!