midatlanticweather

Ha - He did an update today to look at the years as well 

Spot On Weather has had some good analysis and is liking 2000 - 2001 for an analog. Sorry if this was posted - I thought it was interesting 

Ya!! I see.. Holy cow.. Matches 1935 Florida Keys.. Right? 

31.3 for the low!! We did it in Western Loudoun. Based on Dulles readings, Eastern Loudoun too. I guess that will end the growing season. 

Gfs is a southern slider end of next week. Wow. I mean the trend was there on the models but long range forecasting is a challenge. We will see if the Euro folds

32.7 for the low. Close! 

34.9 degrees on my frosty morning walk! Brilliantly nice! 

Was great day to mow the grass for the last time this season! Will be swapping the garage for the Christmas decorations by the front door and the lawnmower packed in the back! 77 for a high today was quite warm! Probably do it again tomorrow! 

Not much - but something

36.3 for the low. Frosty in the shaded spots

Maybe some more freezes?

Euro is much more interesting Sunday/Monday for rain and some windy showers. Pretty consistent about a bit more than just a quick passing front with some showers. Hope it is correct. 

23 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Never give up, never surrender!

About time for the Animal House quoting

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS...beggars can't be choosy, I'll take it.

I am like 5 miles from the red bullseye in Loudoun! LOL! What an odd model depiction.. I suspect there should be a lot more smoothing than that 

38 this morning in Purcellville, and when I went out, shaded spots had some patchy frost. So good call on the advisory, it was all about location, shady spots, and good clear conditions. 

Gfs ticks east with heavier rain shield. I think it is under doing the western extent of rain but that is based on nor'easter thoughts from winter. Still a close line between the heavier rain and those that get less. Rain is now certain for most or all the area

Long range snow totals for GFS and Euro showing a lot of Canada getting snow the next 2 weeks. Gfs is way more excited about it 

2.55 inches for total event here in Purcellville. 

WOW! What luck.. 2.34 inches of rain over the last 24 hours! Very unexpected amounts here in my backyard! 

44.1 degree low! That is chilly! 

Oh ya! Browning for sure, I am also not cutting 3 inch+ amounts off the lawn every week either. Not good for grass planting season, which is here in about a week! Need some moisture for sure. Hoping tomorrow surprises, but when dryness is the trend, Loudoun has not done well in the past. I also do not like the trajectory of moisture tomorrow as it seems to get a slight rain shadow from the mountains when moving west to east. Still got down to 49 last night which is wild due to such big temperature swings. 

48.2 glorious degrees this morning! Was a chilly and delightful walk! 

Cat 5

WTNT65 KNHC 161520
TCUAT5
 
Hurricane Erin Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1120 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A 
CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds 
near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near 
917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued 
at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM AST...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...255 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES
 

12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Saw it near Pittsburgh. I assume a rocket launch. It was drifting slowly north.

Ya.. I have been unable to find the rocket launch info