midatlanticweather

4 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

But like...why? When was the last time we saw snow on snow?

If the Monday/Tuesday and 20th event just bring an inch or two each, that's an absolute win....

Win means something different to many people on here! What you are speaking about is a nuisance event that should not require this much work to follow! LOL! Just sayin' - Most all of us are in for the big dogs. We will all take and love the 2 inch snow, but we all dream of the 10"+ or more storms (some even more than that!) 

I do get what you are saying though.. any snow is a win. But is it a big win or a little one! Most want to buy a Powerball ticket to win the big jackpots and not the scratch offs!  

Another note, the storm is again changing characteristics related to which wave will do what. When things like this happen we know we do not have the final picture. I hope the final becomes a better one than worse one. As of now, we do not know anything. It seems like, no matter what, an area of snow will be possible in the region. Who gets what is completely unknown. Now I am just being captain obvious 

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. 

And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. 

We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff. 

This is exactly what I think, but I am always a Deb on complicated setups. I get that worried feeling that the wave snows south, blows up out at sea and curls back in for NE. Leaves us a hole. Maybe that curl back is a stretch but I had a moment thinking of December 2010, I think, with the big old hole over us. Painful 

Just now, Heisy said:

Not a pro, but I’m a fan, think there’s better spacing with the TPV, our wave is backed up a bit, not pressing as far S. I wouldn’t guarantee it looks like GFS but I imagine it would be much better than 12z crap. Maybe like last nights 00z? We’ll see the control/eps less than an hour


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Saw the same but I like the word "Tick" better! In many ways I thought it looked the same. I did see the TPV being a bit different and little modification in the energy. Need some better people than me to do proper analysis! Will look forwards to the ensembles

Just need more precip and a wider precip shield! WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT! This was awesome! Keep improving! Euro - get a clue and come back to the party please! 

Is there model validation on specific ensembles? Like certain ones are more reliable than others? Just curious

5 day model losses storm rule? Weenie handbook item from long ago? But having it completely disappear is just so strange! Ensemble time! BUT this is disheartening to say the least

24 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Steady light to moderate 24-hour events seems to be the better ones for us last 15 years than intense quicker hitter. 

I bet everything speeds up and it is not a 24-hour event! LOL! These things always end up being quick even when modeled for a long time. Maybe you were being sarcastic.. I cannot think of on event that took so long. 

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Let’s be Frank though the pattern didn’t change and the delays continue.

we can still get a biggie it couple old fashioned 4-5 inches but a persist cold and snowy winter is not in the cards but may yet assert itself upon 3-3 snowing occasions. 

The pattern did get better. We do not have ideal set ups ever now when we get close to an event. We do not need ideal.. We need cold and then a storm in the southern branch and something to lock the cold in place for the duration of the precipitation event. Keep it simple.. Look for the simple.. And the details will be cleared up when we approach. We do not do complicated well.. If it gets complicated bet in fail. As PSU has said, we always need luck. Sometimes the pattern makes it more likely we will get lucky. We want to see those features get better as we approach storm time.. If they step back on subsequent runs of models, you know your luck is likely to run out. Doesn't mean in the end you don't get lucky, but you better hedge your bets. I am being captain obvious here. Let's get the cold and the cutter off the table and see if some better stuff shows up. That is all we can do. The thing that seems certain for next week is colder air will be around 

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

IMO they are in the process of meeting in the middle from where they both were 48 hours ago.  That should end up with us getting some pity flakes while just northeast of us gets a blizzard.  We haven't had one of those in a while, time to feel that pain again.  

I agree. Just not seeing the organization and important features until. It is too late

24.4/21 - Still dropping

25/21 in Purcellville, VA

30.5 with dp 21. Temp dropped fast at sunset but stabilized in the last hour 

Hit 42 for a high. Down to 36. Dp is 21

That is going to hurt.. Very tight gradient.. Agree totals are bonkers. 

That was a huge precip nothing

Memory here, but I feel the Euro was late to the party a while back too and was warm. That was AGES ago now so I may be just wishcasting. 

BUT, that same storm did changeover and other models were colder.... so.. maybe not.. going to sleep a few hours

Well crap! CMC looks north as well. Well, let's hope it gets better tomorrow.

Looks like a follow-up will wash that away on Tuesday and flooding will be a concern! Going to be a wet set of systems back-to-back. Busy days ahead. 

Not too focused on that at this time, but something to watch soon after the snow fun

That was nice. Would like more juice but that looked pretty clean on the snow. Good trends 

I really liked the CAD showing up. It seemed to shunt the low a bit south with the transfer. The edge of the snowline is always a concern. This was at least a tick in the better direction! 

Thermals are going to be an issue with that track! Love the high numbers, not convinced this is a sloppy mess. Better than 12z

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I think we get a thump at least. We still have a HP heading into the event. Not really a strong one but enough to get some CAD in place at least. 

This is the best case scenario from what I think as well. Thump.. that will be more likely in your area than east of the Blueridge. Hoping for positive trends to offset the negatives today! But maybe we call all see a brief period of snow. 

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

“The writing is on the wall” before the 12z runs yesterday most people thought this was a long shot! I’m all for panicking but this thing is still 7 days away no trend is at the point where it’s impossible to trend back. That said if we continue to see more north west tracks through tomorrow and beyond then it’s pretty much over. 

While I agree there is time to change, and I also thought it was a long shot from the beginning, the trends are not one model run or anything. We know it can turn favorable, but it is a rarity. CMC looks good but shifting, Euro has been saying this is not going to work, and now the GFS is telling us that this will not likely work out. I am up for a change, but in events we usually like to see things improving on every run to get me to a positive attitude about it turning favorable.. if that trend shows up, I will be fine with it! 

If this is a fail, thank goodness it is showing this 7 days out! The Lucy ball was pulled early! 

Writing is on the wall. The trend continues to depress.. Unless we see another trend, I think we have to just accept it! Now looking for the ripple effects on the longer range.