Albedoman

what will it take to make you happy- two back to back SECS? Let those who are starved to see a real winter of a white ground and lows near ten degrees for longer than 48 hours in the last three years enjoy their two inches from this snow event for the next week or so. I am so tired of seeing 3-6 in snows be gone in less than three days. What a waste of a good snowpack. By the way this so called lousy 2-4 in snow event will save the ski resorts this year and give snow removal companies some money. These individuals need this pixie dust and pity flakes more than you anyway LOL

Friday event is icing on the cake snow event for Tuesday and not an issue as long it is not another 2 inch rain event. My motto with this event -- SCOGFAM -----snow cover our ground for a month SC method

even though the squall Sunday is not a true clipper, it maybe enough to break the crappy pattern ushering in the arctic air with a strong cold front , even for a week. The models are coming back with the snow this morning for Tuesday too. Not a foot but a moderate snowfall I expect 2-4 or 4-6 would be in line. The best part of all this, we get snow on the ground for longer than 3 days and lows near the single digits Now thats winter too me. I said around the third week? So I am off a few days. I said this a month ago. We take

I just want a 12 in snow pack on the ground for 2 weeks with lows in the single digits and teens. Dam, when did that happen last in the valleys?

About 13 inches of rain for many areas in our forecast region IN 30 DAYS IS NOT NORMAL, especially in DEC - JAN. That is over 30% of annual precipitation on semi frozen with little or no evapotranspiration on saturated grounds in less than 8 weeks. Completely different scenario than a summer tropical storm event. I have the absolute right to flip out a little as this crappy rainy weather pattern has never been experienced by the majority of us in our lifetime including me solely in the winter months. 2011 was the last time we had 13 or more inches of rain in any two consecutive months - back to back tropical storms Irene and Lee in August and Septemeber https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/allentown/most-monthly-precipitation. You are now enjoying something that has never been seen in over 125 years of weather recorded history. That is 100 times more interesting than tracking a dam snow storm to a weather buff. The stupid media not picking up on this weather history situation is beyond me.

better late than never LOL. No more flooding rains hopefully.

the pac buoy info is being ingested into the models the last two days. That will not be the case after tomorrow night. Everyone calm down. The snow will come. Once the buoy info is gone and the LP is positioned in Canada, the location of the LP along the coast will be clearly defined.

hell no I will not flip out. 1-2 inch rain is nothing now. a cakewalk. The major sewer lines in our area are fully surcharged and overflows are occuring from inflow from leaky pipes. This does not bode well for the municipalities of the Lehigh County. The township people today pulled the sewer lid out in front of my house and the pipe was full and it was not blocked after they jetted the collector line. Can you say the shit has already hit the fan with these rainfall amounts in the last 30 days? Bring on the cold and snow , I am ready

Walt, if we can get a decent cutter to come across that polar air in the midwest and drag it over the Appalachians, we are in the game for some decent and memorable snowfall events after next Tuesday. Many posters either do not remember 96 or were not alive but I sure the hell do. It only takes one good cutter with a deep trough and an -NAO to phase LP's some good storms along the east coast. We just need some of that polar air to get the engine fine tuned. That polar air locked in the midwest and Ohio Valley IMHO next week transferring just a few days over to us by a clipper would be like putting is like putting Sea Foam in your V8 carburetor. LOL

The drought guy here saying any chance of drought now will not return until late summer at the earliest. Personally if I see another 2-3 inch rainfall event after Saturday, I give up on winter LOL. I have measured nearly 15 inches of rain in less than 30 days at my domain. To put that in perspective, that is almost 35% of our annual total rainfall in just 30 days with little to no evapotranspiration. That is 100% recharge into the aquifers with unfrozen soils and what does not recharge is 100% runoff. All wells are at max levels and all impoundments for public water supply our at max for our area too. Any snow we get is a real plus now. Spring growth should be fantastic this year with blooming flowers along with those who love to mow because the of all the free nitrogen in the rainfall. The grass will be very green in Late March. I said in earlier posts that the third week of January (21st) would be the trigger. I am real close. The snow conveyor belt is about to begin as cold air is trying is dam hard to blow over the appalachians mountains by the middle part of next week. If a clipper shoots down in our direction, we will get some of that polar air too to set up the parade of storms as the GOM is finally opening its doors after a 5+ year hiatus . Lets cross our fingers.

actually as legitimate snow weenie LOL, I am pretty pissed tonight that Memphis TN will experience a true winter on MLK way before us. What do I mean? The highs on Monday will be in the teens with snow 2-3 inches in memphis. Not alot of snow but dammit, the ratios will be so high with the extreme cold temps and it will be on the ground for days. What really gets me cranking as their overnight lows will be near zero on Monday night. Please make this f*&king rain go away. 15 inches of rain in less than 30 days enough.

first of several squall lines forming.Expect 50 mph gusts any time here in the LV. approaching 2 inches of rain now. The fire hydrant is opened full wide at my house in Macungie

thanks

University of Memphis 1979-1986 Awarded B.S. Degree in Physical Geography with an Environmental Science Concentration and a Geology Minor in 1981. Obtained post-graduate experience in Environmental and Urban Planning Resource Management from 1984 to 1986. Highlights - Masters of Fellowship Award-only awarded to one graduate student in all 17 graduate schools-twice awarded for independent research and high GPA average. President of Gamma Theta Upsilon National Honor Society in 1981. Deans List awarded-1981. Technical Background - Air/Remote Sensing, Quantitative Analysis, GIS Systems, Water Quality Analysis, including Hydrogeological Studies, and Urban Land Use Studies.

this map says it all. Notice the precip over the Poconos/LV. The snowpack will not hold in the precip, its already saturated enough now. The Delaware River will rise ten feet or more in less than 6 hours on Wednesday morning. The tributaries like the Lehigh River will make the flooding even worse as the snow pack will be completely erased. Little or no sublimation will take place as a result of this type of snowmelt. Fog would have really helped us out but the warm SE winds will melt the crap out the snow before evaporation can take place. IMHO, that is a major game changer because several times during a winter season, a good fog will slowly destroy a snow pack. This time no such luck. The soil profile horizons are supersaturated completely from the A Horizon all the way to the C horizons. Springs are really flowing heavily right now (Shale soils especially) as the ground is frozen only a few inches and not in feet like it should be. I expect major flooding. Anyone doubt me, I am a NRCS certified hydrologist. Simply stated, there is no room from water to be stored- its all going to runoff. Better get your waders on.

The idea of a gravity wave Walt is exactly what I was thinking as well. Mixing the winds down through a squall line will yield a tremendous amount of straight line wind damage, especially for those on ridges, hills and deep valleys. The second storm this week on Sat is very concerning as well as their will be absolutely no more stormwater storage in manmade structures and in the soils and anything that falls will be 100% runoff to the rivers. Even a 1.5 in of rain event will be create serious flooding. Another thread should be created for this storm event after Wednesday. The mid atlantic region is experiencing its own atmospheric river right now and the media should be picking up on this fact. Never in my lifetime have I seen so many 2-3+ in rain events occur in less than a month and especially in December and January for our area. If the artic cold was present at each event, we would be talking nearly 100 inches of snow for our region already.

Walt, I am at a loss. Many posters have no clue what will be upon them Wed morning. 45-60 mph winds with 3-4 inches of rain over a 6-12+ inch snow pack in NE and EPA/NJ. I really hope the flooding is curtailed but I have never seen the ground as saturated as it is right now in my 45 years living in the NE US. Posters discussing about 1- 2 inch snows in the major cities will be the least of their worries. I will make the same comparison as this storm being like Issac but not quite as bad as Sandy. I am sure they all remember those storms. The big difference will be the high sustainable SE winds over super supersaturated soils causing wind thrown trees everywhere. The trees are not used to blowing in that direction in the winter, thus their root structure is susceptible to be pulled out of the ground easily too. You add all the diseased ash trees weakened over the last few years from the ash borer in eastern PA and NJ and you have one hell of a down tree problem. Furthermore, the stormwater basins will not absorb any water as they do in the summer as the soils in these basins are clay lined/semi frozen and saturated so they will fill quickly and runoff into the creeks and rivers quickly too. Totally different stormwater reactions and output from a typical summer storm. This storm event might as well be considered a tropical winter storm event that has the possibility of t- storms with straight line wind squall lines and if you add the existing snow melt on saturated grounds will be like receiving 5-6+ inches of rain in a tropical storm. As I said before, this event may not reach the magnitude of the flood of 96, but it will be close. I am not trying be a debbie downer but a realist. This scenario unfolding is not a joking matter over who gets the most snow. The media should be playing this situation up not worrying when the snow plow comes by your street. Its a shame because I will see many posters post how bad the flooding will be on Wednesday . I just hope they get prepared.

we had 5-8 in here in the Lehigh valley in most places. All I can say is that if you try to shovel this stuff, it is super wet. My snow thrower was having troubling handling it. I see many having heart issues if they try to shovel this stuff in the morning. Its like shoveling pure slush. The snow ratio had to be less than 6:1. I have not seen this wet of a snow in five years here. The flakes were pancakes coming down for a few hours. Oh how I dread Tuesday night as the soils are now super saturated and not frozen. Wind thrown trees and huge flooding problems coming our way for sure from this tropical like storm in January. Instability in the soundings talking some thunder too on Tuesday night The water content in tonight's storm event of 6 inches of snow has to be at least one inch or more. Add that to the potential of 2-3+ inches of expected rain and we have record flooding.

Yes yesterday or on Thursday I said they should post winter storm warnings for the LV. I have over 6 inches IMBY here in Macungie. Guess what, as usual, they issue a winter storm warning just now. Too late to stop people from clogging up the roads with accidents but whatever. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 822 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 PAZ061-062-071100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240107T1100Z/ /O.EXB.KPHI.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240107T1100Z/ Lehigh-Northampton- Including the cities of Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton 822 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Lehigh and Northampton. * WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest accumulations will be in northern and western parts of the counties across the higher elevations. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

any snow we get now today is a bonus however it will be all gone in another 48-72 hours or so. The urban flooding will be unreal wednesday. Next weekend will not help much either for the flooding and again any snow that falls may not stick around. I think my first call was 6-8 in for the LV for tonights snow/sleet event and have stuck with that call even though the LP is sticking its warm tongue at us right now. Would not be surprised if this event becomes a sleetfest. 1-3 in of sleet is a bitch to drive on for sure Ralph, how is the the week of 1/21 holding out? LO LR GEM last night says - here I come baby. As I said weeks ago, that was the magic week where the cold stays put for awhile the SJS sends LP's from the GOM toward our area. Get those shovels greased up baby and the Ben gay ready LMAO

they upped the snow totals to 8 in of snow in the LV in the pin point forecasts. WSW maybe issued in the next update later this morning

my eyes are all focused on the Tuesday/Wed storm. To hell with a 6-8+ in snow event tomorrow that will be all gone by Tuesday evening. Flooding is going to be a huge problem with down trees from the 30+ mph winds everywhere and power outages. Sump pumps will be going full board. MT Holly has been very concerned as well. The old timers know this is a perfect setup for localized flooding of basements. I see Easton possibly being flooded by the Delaware as the major rivers in our area hit flood stage. The Little Lehigh and Perkiomen will be be flooding and dozens roads will be unpassable. Do not know if it will be as bad as 1996 but it will be bad believe me. I am really surprised that no one is really discussing it, but it has the potential of being devastating for our area for flood damage. I having serious concerns that a potential of 15+ inches of precipitable water in the LV in the course of three weeks is not being more discussed in this forum.

geographically, they should issue winter storm watches. The physical geography does NOT lie with the location I-78 but the the south mountain/Blue Mountain range for all precip forecasting Pin point forecasting does not work well above the south mountain range IMHO and is basically useless. Using I-78 as a weather demarcation line does not work in the LV because the interstate divides the LV in half going west to east instead of north and south at it lowest elevation. There is no room for error. Once it starts snowing on the northeast side of South Mountain range near MACUNGIE, all forecasted snow accumulations are off and stack up quickly. Want proof, SIMPLY ask a Penndot plower. They sit at the top of the hills everywhere.

I made the first call of 6-8" with lollipops yesterday to my friends. Sticking to it until I see the the NAM tomorrow night which could change the amounts

Winter storm watches maybe issued by Thursday evening for LV north, especially if the NAM agrees by the 18Z runs on Thursday. Every LR model demonstrates satisfying winter storm warning criteria for the LV the last day or so. Confidence level is somewhat high at above 60% too. Looks promising but I will still rely on the NAM runs on Thursday night to agree with the Euro runs on Friday morning for a WS warning to be issued by Friday 18Z runs. Accumulations look to be 8+ inches on the clown maps but meeting at least 6 in on the total positive snow map is somewhat satisfying in these LR models. I will go with the latter until the NAM shows its cards. The NAM/HRRR is basically the River card in this poker game involving a winter storm event to be issued for the LV. Once that card is turned over, we will all know where we stand.