I was thinking it was the coldest night in a long time in Montclair. Thanks for putting a time stamp as i knew we had one really cold stretch but i couldn’t remember the exact date. 18/7 currently, clouds slowly streaming in.
The last ditch weenie hope for us lowlanders is a hot and heavy WAA slug that comes in like a wall earlier than expected and gives us 3-6. Posting this more for myself than the forum lol. 22/3 in Montclair
If this thing tracks like 50 miles east of that Euro track we get pummeled. I mix more than you in any situation. But 50 miles is all we need for a solid hit. Maybe 6-12 from east to west PWC.
The analysis is good based on the models. No argument there. But if this was showing a perfect storm track 90 hours out we wouldn’t be saying this is locked in. Well we might say it but we’d all be expecting the next model run to crush our dreams. This time I’m going to keep expecting the next run to bring home the bacon.
I had a foot and then 2-3 inches from the last two storms. After a week of mid 50s over Christmas in Canaan. 6 weeks of deep winter and ripping fatties is all I ever wanted lol.
It’s not just the NAM with the cold temps. To certain degree most of the guidance has shown a pretty stout cold shot before the storm dies whatever it does
If i remember correctly once we get inside that range the Ens typically more or less follow the op. Every once in a while they diverge inside that range and then maybe we take a look.
That was definitely discussed. But even so, we still weight the ensembles more heavily until about 72 hours out from most storms. At least I’m riding that theory for another 24 hours lol.