Yea I’d rather get down to 33-34 degrees with this slug and let the chips fall from there than start the same process at 40 degrees like we did a couple hours ago
As long as the dew is below freezing we can use the weenie handbook for dynamical cooling with heavy rates. Probably not applicable with the current “storm”
Somebody from Fredericksburg to PSU land will do well. But at this point i think you could throw a dart in that range and have as good a chance as the models. I know where I’m aiming my dart.
We should all read this post 10 times so it sinks in. A couple tenths of an inch of precip one way or the other or 100 miles in the general track of the low pressure is noise. Of course that noise is deafening when it takes away 6 inches of digital snow.
The Ukie and the Euro have been pretty consistent with this setup. If you blend the guidance and remove some of the high end Euro Kuchera totals, it seems 6-12 inches is a good forecast. Sign me up
Maybe it’s because of recent bias, but this seems like the easiest setup for us to have a solid clean score. Cold air in place, precip with gulf origins. We don’t need a messy transfer or TPV lobe. I think we do well with this one.
Scenario 2 would give many of us more snow in 6 hours than we had during the 72 hour marathon of light snow and snow showers. Would certainly be cool to have a nice snow pack before the arctic blast