We should all read this post 10 times so it sinks in. A couple tenths of an inch of precip one way or the other or 100 miles in the general track of the low pressure is noise. Of course that noise is deafening when it takes away 6 inches of digital snow.
The Ukie and the Euro have been pretty consistent with this setup. If you blend the guidance and remove some of the high end Euro Kuchera totals, it seems 6-12 inches is a good forecast. Sign me up
Maybe it’s because of recent bias, but this seems like the easiest setup for us to have a solid clean score. Cold air in place, precip with gulf origins. We don’t need a messy transfer or TPV lobe. I think we do well with this one.
Scenario 2 would give many of us more snow in 6 hours than we had during the 72 hour marathon of light snow and snow showers. Would certainly be cool to have a nice snow pack before the arctic blast
I think the EPS still carries some wait for the transfer and capture portion of the storm. The WAA seems to be close to locked in based on the 12z suite.
We are really only 36 hours from the WAA piece of the storm. Radar hallucinations start tomorrow afternoon. Need that trough to get a neutral tilt for part 2 and it’s game on