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StantonParkHoya

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Everything posted by StantonParkHoya

  1. StantonParkHoya
  2. StantonParkHoya
    Shear forecast to increase as it approaches
  3. StantonParkHoya
    Outside of Beryl, every other storm has struggled this year. Let’s hope that trend continues.
  4. StantonParkHoya
  5. StantonParkHoya
    0z hurricane models really tight from Apalachicola to Atlanta
  6. StantonParkHoya
    18z GFS weaker and sw of 12z
  7. StantonParkHoya
    I’m talking about spread on landfall location
  8. StantonParkHoya
    Models have definitely tightened up today
  9. StantonParkHoya
    GFS kind of looks convective feedbacky to me the way it jumps the low with the convection. Don’t know if that’s possible at that hour at that resolution but whatever. its only 1000 miles different from 18z CMC is in SW Arkansas at 222, GFS is off Cape of Maine.
  10. StantonParkHoya
    Or it could always be…nothing at all
  11. StantonParkHoya
    What’s 1200 miles amongst friends?
  12. StantonParkHoya
    12z ICON extrapolated looks heading for Corpus Christi — Houston
  13. StantonParkHoya
    Pretty wild path on GFS. I’m skeptical of such an anomalously digging trough in late September to cause a full recurve. A landfall Mobile-Big Bend then NE seems more plausible.
  14. StantonParkHoya
    Call me skeptical that a TC zips from the shores of Ol’ Mexico completely across the gulf to Florida like that
  15. StantonParkHoya
    18z GFS with some big changes. Less trough dig, more ridging into gulf, takes Cat 4/5 into Louisiana coast
  16. StantonParkHoya
    Less dust when the area is flooding
  17. StantonParkHoya
    Seems like the model average is around Mobile
  18. StantonParkHoya
    Will be interesting to follow the timing and the trough interaction. GFS does it again but the set up over the US MW is quite different each run.
  19. StantonParkHoya
    Pretty sure those are all squall related. I don’t see anything from Topsail over 35.
  20. StantonParkHoya
    Saving grace for immediate coastal areas it pertains for fresh water flooding is three-fold: 1) sandy base soils allow for maximum drainage; 2) it’s post-summer-season, so lower population; 3) most houses are on stilts.
  21. StantonParkHoya
    All I can think of is if this was snow
  22. StantonParkHoya
    Definitely feels like a fall coastal, not tropical
  23. StantonParkHoya
    If 3 inches of rain is “substantial”, then sure
  24. StantonParkHoya
    Models tightening up on location now. Georgetown, SC has been the hot spot last few years.
  25. StantonParkHoya
    6z GEFS looks like between CHS and MYR as maybe a TD note: RAH believes this will be a subtropical system
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