StantonParkHoya
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Everything posted by StantonParkHoya
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Is the new GFS out yet?
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March is a full met spring month
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Seems like we say the same thing with every version update. The 2004 version of the Euro was better than what we have in today's U.S. GFS.
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There’s some steam interaction going on. Always a positive.
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Eh, if this were a traditional Miller A, I'd be inclined to agree, however this storm has a bit differentiating it: 1) WAA driven precip; and 2) Excellent CAD setup. The CAD setups are generally undermodeled, so I would anticipate 2m temps to continue trending downward. I could definitely see a trend toward more sleet/ice in NC.
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GFS v15 with the C-ENC snowstorm day 7/8. Nice.
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Pretty classic setup for the models to trend colder as CAD is picked up. I like it.
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Creedmoor/540
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I’ll be honest, been back in Raleigh this winter, and it has accidentally snowed more than I can ever remember. Just today we had an intense snow squall that coated the ground. And it has rarely been mild or warm this winter. While we may have missed on the blockbuster snow so far, it has certainly felt like winter. Having grown up in the South, that is something to talk about.
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Your geography is off. SOtB barely sees any snow on the Euro.
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Very early in winter? Winter is halfway over. Met winter is what counts. In NC, winter for all intents and purposes ends March 1 except for very anomalous events.
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Ripping in Boone per the King St. webcam
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Other than the 9 people that live in the mountains, I think this one is a goner. All guidance looks like crap
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Gonna be wild when N Wake and Creedmoor gets 4 inches and it rains downtown Raleigh
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Again, totals for eastern NC going up and up with latest NAM. Gotta like the trends if you're Raleigh-east.
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All the models are basically coalescing around the same idea now. For C/ENC, the key is going to be that deform late afternoon/evening and where the banding and rates set up.
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Off topic, but it’s so hilarious that it almost takes an act of god, snowman cometh situation to get snow in the South, yet in the Rockies, it can accidentally snow in July.
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This secondary max situation is becoming real for Eastern NC. They may cash in.
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12z NAM actually lights up Central and Eastern NC as the "deform" rolls through Friday evening
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Entire northern NC gets the goods on CMC. Looks like 6ish at RDU.
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RDU folks will take and run
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Tough for TV mets with a storm like this, where they like to broad brush accum amounts. Given banding, someone will verify or bust high, and someone will not come close.
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I think the timing shift to later in the day has certainly hurt things, specifically BL temps. That is impacting accums.
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Lol, NAM with a damn foot for northern Wake/Durham counties
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For RDU, I'm thinking -- initial thump (mix/sleet?), over to light rain for a bit, end in some higher rates as final bands move W-E.
