HeadInTheClouds

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Another surprise-only 6.5” at Albany Airport. I thought for sure they’d have 12+ in this storm. The downslope really screwed them. 23” at Hunter. This is the ultimate have/have nots storm but March storms usually do that. 

They aren't done yet. NWS Albany talking about a pivoting band and Mohawk Convergence which may add to totals later today and this evening. 

35 and just some light rain now. Finished with just under 9 inches. 26.5 for the season. 

2 hours ago, jayyy said:

It varies greatly in that area. My friends in Schenectady only got 8” while some other areas easily saw over a foot. Shadow effect is real up there. Elevated Places SW of Albany and east of Albany tends to cause sinking air in the valley


.

Yes, this is true. I have family there and I know topography plays a role in Capitol District snowfall as it does in MHV.  I did see a number of reports of reports of a foot or more. 

33 and ripping snow. 

5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Yeah I was wondering if any location was going hit average with this even with the abomination of a winter in most locales.  Even if we got 20 around here, we would miss. 

I think you basically had to be I90 on north to have close to an average winter. I'm 20 miles north of I84 and this storm should get me to over 25 for the season but still well below normal. 

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If you mean average for the season, they may be a hair under but close. Average there is about 60” but they were at 42” going into this. They likely get at least a foot so that would get them to 54” and 18” would be 60”. 

Even with only a foot it's still close enough compared to pathetic lack of snow other areas have had. 

Albany area getting crushed. They will be at average snowfall after this storm. 

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

rgem way under done up there but doing good down here so far. 

The truth was always going to be in the middle. Heavy snow now. 

32 with moderate snow, eyeballing 7-8 inches OTG. Power outages all over the place. 

32 with moderate/heavy snow, about 2 inches. 

33 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Just saw the gfs seems to really smash eastern parts of the HV which I’d be surprised because of shadowing but I guess depends exactly where the best dynamics end up. 

Yea, I would say it's way overdone. 1 ft is possible but 2, nah. 

6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The low-level drying isn't far behind if the HRRR is to be believed. It'll be hard to get any sustainable rates with that column, especially since I'm still above freezing at the ground. Still interesting to watch, but significant accumulations are hanging by a thread up here. 

Latest Hrrr is giving all of Dutchess county over a foot and GFS just went nuclear. Radar looks good also. I think we will do well. 

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Is that ahead of schedule?

Just about on schedule. Most models had it changing over about 3z. 

8 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Dumping snow here in central Dutchess. Puking, even. Just an assault of aggregates. Heaviest I've seen in a couple years. 

Really need that mixing line to wash out a little. 

Nice. 34 and mostly snow now by me also. 

35 with mostly rain and a few flakes mixed in. 

This storm must be a nightmare for NWS offices. Albany still hasn't updated it's 5am storm briefing but they are generally the latest to do these updates. 

18z 12K Nam gives me 20, 3k 12, and HRRR 16. Waiting for the RGEM to give me 3 or 4 to balance it out. 

Bust potential is huge on this storm both ways. Just IMBY 12z suite has me anywhere between 3 and 18, lol. Nothing like a tight consensus 12 hours before game time. 17z hrrr has me getting 13 inches by 11z. I'm still thinking 8-10 total. 

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Detailed Forecast

This Afternoon

Rain. High near 39. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight

Rain before 11pm, then rain and snow between 11pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Breezy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Don't know what the NWS is seeing? This is my updated forecast. They actually upped snow totals to 11-20"

I guess they are not just looking at CMC/RGEM. 

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Fair point. The cmc looks lousy too but I guess it’s expected cmc/RGEM would be similar. Guess we’ll find out tomorrow. Should be a sharp cutoff somewhere near I84 but not sure exactly where that sets up.

CMC is even worse, lol but that was to be expected. We will know pretty soon but I'm not buying it. 

17 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Agree I’d be going ballistic right now if I lived in the I84 corridor. Here I never had expectations. 

It doesn't mean it is right. I think it's light on the precip and it's the only model that shows less than 6 inches up here. It shows a pathetic QPF output in the hours after rain changes to snow when every other model shows heavy precip. Every other model also shows anywhere between 9 and 18 at 10:1. Why should I believe the RGEM? 

 00z suite is for the most part showing a max snowfall area around I90 and very little near NYC metro. What happens in between is still TBD. I'm thinking 6-12 around I84, with the lower amounts in the valleys. 

All these models are on crack. 

I guess people may come off the ledge since the Ukie flip flopped again but for the better. 

4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Kuchera relays the actual ratios that may fall, in this case probably 6:1-8:1 as it’s a wet heavy snow. 10:1 maps will be over inflated


.

It depends on where you are and the dynamics at play. NWS Albany talking 8-10:1 in their zone.