HeadInTheClouds

34 with light snow and a little sleet mixed in. Starting to stick. 

Alternating between light rain and brief periods of moderate/heavy snow depending on precip intensity. Just a trace of snow on colder surfaces. Temp steady at 34. Hoping for some accumulation later this afternoon and evening. 

34 with light rain/snow mix now. 

34 with moderate/heavy snow, starting to stick to colder surfaces. 

4 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I'm a few miles south of 84 and I'm expecting a half inch of white rain! I figure if I keep my expectations low I can't be too disappointed

This is a tough one with thermals but if you are around 1000 in elevation you should get more than that I would think. We will find out soon enough. 

Expecting 1-2 in the HV 20 miles north of 84. Elevated areas should do pretty well. 

46 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

NAM is a good SR model. Case closed. That is why its been around for 40+  years.  Sorry it does not show snow at your house but at my domain, 8 in of snow is shown in Macungie. Do I believe it- no way in hell.  It will be all white rain as it is elevation driven around the hills at my house for accumulation. All it shows is that the thermal profiles will be cold enough for snow but the ground will be too warm.  All SR weather models cannot predict precise ground temps or are precise on elevation snow events. This last run just demonstrates to me that white rain will fall for a few hours in Morning morning. Time to move on to mid Feb.  I really missed the 80 degrees in washington DC today. It would have been nice to open windows.

 

It's a bad model and pretty useless beyond 24 hours. It's run to run differences are a joke. RGEM is much better and consistent run to run. No models are perfect and they all have their flaws and biases but the American models are behind Canadian and Euro. 

It's been said many times before but I just want to say what a garbage model the Nam is. The American model suite is an embarrassment. 

Always warm RGEM not enthused for snow except for elevated areas well N and W. 850's are below 0 just N and W of NYC. 

00Z Nam

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Like you said, God awful setup. Not even worth listing all the negatives. There’s going to be a lot of disapppointed people here, north and west of NYC included. Nothing is good about this storm if you want snow and I’m not saying that because I’m trolling or being a mean person or trying to take away people’s snow. 
 

Word to the wise DO NOT use 10:1 ratio snowmaps with this event. They are going to be so grossly inaccurate it’s not going to be funny. Use the positive snow depth change maps only, if they aren’t available on Pivotal, use Kuchera. We will be lucky to see 5:1 ratios, even north and west of NYC 

Ya mean winter may not be over in January? Go figure. 

33 with moderate snow. Starting to stick. 

Made it down to 4 last night, now 19. Some ice/snow in the forecast Tuesday/Tuesday night here north of I84, maybe an inch. 

Down to 13 after a high of 28. 

25 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Euro had it

Euro and CMC have them getting .02 qpf. Big whoop. 

I've had 15 inches this month after the usual trolls said winter was over in December. Keep posting it. 

25 and cloudy. Had light snow most of the day but it amounted to a whopping 1/2 inch. I was expecting no more than an inch in HV so not disappointed. 15 for the month. 

24 with a steady light snow for the last hour. Looks and feels like winter. 

18 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

At one time this was mostly true, but with the concerted attempts to dismantle public schools, many urban children now attend charters ( which are public in name only ) which can be way across town; some families have kids in multiple charters. 

It's just different up here and in other more rural areas. 5 snow days are allotted every school year and if they aren't used then the schools close a few days early in late June. Every school in the state has to be open 180 days I believe. 

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Yea it’s over. HRRR, NAM, all dry now 

The qpf being spit out is pretty pathetic. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

They only close schools here over 12 inches of snow .

Because schools are generally close to where you live in urban areas and people can walk to them also. Up by me in Dutchess county most school systems cover large areas so it's a problem with buses driving in snow or ice. We had about 3 inches last storm and schools were closed. It's not uncommon in more rural areas. There are normally 5 days allotted every winter for snow days. 

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Nam looks like crap. Not a good start 

It does not. 

Finished with 2.5. Meh. 14.5 for the month. 

24 and still steady light snow. Eyeballing about 3.