HeadInTheClouds

16 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I'll never understand the constant hyping for cold and snow (or any extremes of that nature) that those two do on social media. It trickles down to weather boards and forums as well. Not in any way that is intentionally malicious, but the amount of times we've seen pretty Day 15 OPS or Ensembles posted on here, just for them to not verify *imagine the shock there*. And then we sit back and do :/ how did that happen, as if we haven't been doing that since 2019, knowing they probably won't verify (with the exception of 2021 winter and January 2022). 

The cold has been there and so have the opportunities as well. It just hasn't worked out in the snow dept for many in NYC metro but it's likely that February is below normal temp wise and that makes 3 months in a row of below normal temps. When was the last time that has happened? Not everybody has done so poorly in the snow dept either. I have 24 inches so far which is below normal but not that bad and we still have 3-4 weeks of winter that can still produce especially north of I84 where i reside. 

Some of you guys are talking like the winter is over and it's April. It's not. Let's wait another month or so. March is the new December. 

26 with snow and sleet, nearly 4 inches otg. Been a good little storm up here. 24 for the season. 

25 with moderate snow. Been snowing pretty good here since about 2. 25 right now with 2.5 inches OTG. 

It's basically Euro/CMC/Ukie vs GFS/ICON. This map is including Saturday's few inches. 

32 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Besides Tuesday its a cut train - LPs going over Buffalo.  Snow quickly changing over rain 

Away from the coast it does not go quickly from snow to rain, especially with a secondary developing. 

59 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

SWFE usually have low snow ratios because the warming air aloft often makes the snow making/max lift region in the cloud above the ideal temp for dendrites which form at -12 to -18C. So ratios are more like 10-1 or even less in some cases. Snow ratios are mostly determined by the cloud conditions where the snow forms. If the max lift is in the -12 to -18C region, ratios are maximized. 

NWS Albany is expecting higher ratios north of 84 where I am. This makes sense with possibility of DGZ being tapped and lows in mid 20's. Most models give this area .6 or so QPF and NWS has Poughkeepsie area expected snowfall around 8 inches. 

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

0Z Euro is nice...a bit more for folks south of 78 and south of 276/195, but a little less for folks north of 80 (but still 5-6")...

That's 10:1. It should be higher than that N and W. 

4 minutes ago, snywx said:

22° w/ Lgt snow 

7.2" on the board.

Same here. 22 with light snow but winding down. 7 OTG. Cold as hell with the wind. 

25 with moderate snow. 4.5 OTG. 

30 with moderate snow. A little under an inch so far. 

6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

The AI been rock steady 

The AI for the most part yes. The Euro op absolutely not. 

32 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What’s a 300 mile shift between friends?

Now do the Euro. Let me know how many miles it shifted west. 

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not really sure what people are looking at right now on twitter, saying the EURO “caved”. It caved how exactly? It had 2-4 area wide yesterday at 12z, now it has 3-5/3-6 area wide. Nothing but inconsequential noise. No substantial difference. Windshield wiper effect. It’s actually been extremely consistent and it never turned us to rain at any point

Bull. Go look back a few days ago. It was much farther east, weaker, and giving most 2-3 inches. It made a westward shift and bumped precip the last 2 runs. 

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s weird how you keep ignoring that the Canadian models gave the city zero snow until today. Why is that?

I'm not ignoring anything. I already stated that an east shift caused the NYC metro and points east to get some snow instead of nothing because of a very tight gradient where even a small shift could have big implications. Other areas of the sub forum remained essentially the same. 

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The euro was lighter in amounts and the Canadians gave the poconos 2 feet. That’s now off the table. 
 

Canadians had the city and coast getting zero. That changed in one run lol. 
 

 

OMG. The canadian never showed 2 ft. It showed 11-12 inches 2 days ago and at 12z today it showed about 8. Don't make it seem so drastic. Every model corrects closer to events including your Euro. 

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

No. Snow amounts are the only thing we care about actually. 

So the euro was showing 2 or 3 for me yesterday and the cmc about 8. My forecast is for 6-8. 

Just now, psv88 said:

Did you see the most recent RGEM move? Last run it gave the city no snow at all. It has been terrible. Give it a rest

yea ok, it shifted east and still only gives east of NYC 1-3. My point is this isn't looking like a win for the Euro if you have been paying attention. 

2 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

150 miles west 48 hours prior to start time isn't "slightly" west

The CMC has not shifted 150 miles east. 

Just now, psv88 said:

Go back and look at the model trends. See which showed snow V no snow for city and coast and then circle back. 

You do the same. I said the RGem shifted east and the euro shifted west. The consensus seems to be a low inside the BM with more precip than either the euro op or nam have showed. The Euro and EPS had a significant shift west at 06z. 

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Dude the GFS and RGEM were complete rainstorms on the island for days. Also, the Ukie has always been very close to the euro. The NAM is actually southeast of the euro at this point and was never amped up. 
 

the Canadian models have been awful. 
 

I am not sure how anyone can look at this as anything else than a euro win

The Canadian models have not been awful. They have just been slightly further west than where things look to be headed. The Euro has been east and weaker and has been correcting west and bumped up precip. Again, I don't know what you are looking at. 

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Sure but for any particular storm we can see which models have been consistent and look back at other storms and see that as well. Euro has been locked in and the models trended towards it. Same thing happened last week. 

Don't know what models you are looking at but the Euro has been east and weaker and had a significant move west at 06z. The consensus seems to be a low inside the BM and south of LI. The Euro op has shown none of that. It was out there with the nam. 

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

GFS caved to Euro for the most part

How is that? GFS is inside BM and shows a significant storm for nearly everybody. Euro Op is weaker and farther east. 

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

The GFS is not in the RGEM camp 

The answer is somewhere in the middle. 

Just now, MJO812 said:

Rgem and cmc are outliers

I'll take a combo of Icon/CMC/RGEM/GFS over Euro/Ukie/Nam