HeadInTheClouds

Just now, weatherpruf said:

i don't mind that. What I mind is when I am looking outside and it is not doing what people here are telling me it's doing. 

It's weather, shit happens. Thermal profiles have been tough this winter. Again, it depends on where you live. 

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Look at the snowmaps. Did you follow my links? It’s carbon copies of each other

I'm not looking at stupid snowmaps. The 2 models are not that similar. 

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It matches the RGEM perfectly as well 

You couldn't be more wrong. the 18z nam and rgem do not agree on either timing or duration of snow. Nam has precip starting around 10am in city and Rgem has it starting at about 7am. Those 3 hours can be a big difference. Also, nam has precip turning to sleet quickly where rgem has a prolonged period of snow not changing over until noon. Where are the similarities.?

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It matches the RGEM perfectly as well 

What about the other models that don't agree? There is no concensus. 

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new NAM (3K, 12K) and the RGEM are in excellent agreement for tomorrow. We have consensus: 3K NAM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021118&fh=45 12k NAM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021118&fh=42  RGEM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019021118&fh=41

Concensus?  What if nam is wrong? What about Ukie, Euro, and GFS? 

NWS Albany just put me in a winter storm warning for 6 to 8 inches of snow and sleet plus up 1/4 inch of ice. Guess they didn't get the report that this is going to be a nothing burger. 

Thats if the nam is right. I don't trust it. When was the last time it sleeted that long?

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new RGEM is showing a mid-level furnace all the way up to Albany. Way different than what the GFS is showing. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=T700&runtime=2019021018&fh=54

1) It's the warmest model right now

2) It's at hour 54 which is at end of it's range

3) Its not a furnace for a large portion of posters north of city. I am right on zero line at 7pm Tuesday after about 6-8 hours(or more) of snow. 

4) stop speaking in absolute terms. There is so much that is undetermined at this point with thermal profiles. 

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Guys it's sleet to rain, stop with the snow maps.  Less than an inch of snow for NYC then sleet and rain.  It's a nothing burger

There are many posters who don't live in the city and Long Island and will have a significant snow/sleet/ZR event, especially us north of 84, so continue with those snow maps guys. 

My snow forecast for Tuesday was just increased from 3-5 to 5-8. I'm 20 miles north of 84 so expecting a moderate front end thump before changeover to sleet and ZR. 

Below is special statement issued by NWS Albany



..HIGH IMPACT SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...

High impact snow squalls are expected to move across the region
this afternoon into early evening. The squalls will move through
the western Adirondacks, Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys and eastern
Catskills between Noon and 3 PM, the Hudson Valley including the
Capital District, and the Taconics between 2 and 4 PM, and all of
western New England between 4 and 6 PM.

These snow squalls will cause brief heavy snow and strong winds,
resulting in and near white-out conditions. While snow squalls
will last less than 30 minutes in duration, they will have a
significant impact on travel and affect the early part of the
evening commute. Dangerous travel conditions are expected. Snow
accumulations up to an inch will occur in a short amount of time.

Storm was over performer up here. Just measured 7 inches. Started snowing at 9am and didn't stop all day and snowed heavily for several hours this evening. 28 and light snow now. 

28 and heavy snow continues in mid-hudson valley. Approaching 6 inches. 

27 and heavy snow in mid-hudson valley. 4 inches OTG. 

28 with moderate/heavy snow. 3 inches OTG. 

27 and continued light snow, 1.5 OTG

25* light snow, 1 inch OTG

22 and steady light/moderate snow with a coating in mid-hudson valley. Schools closed which is surprising. 

10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lol at the weenie NYC snow hole. 

Fv3 definitely an uptick at 18z as were the RGEM and HDRPS, granted they went from nothing to not much.

This map makes no sense. It gives me 5.5 which would be great but gives places north and west of me less. not going to happen. 

Just now, Gravity Wave said:

Yup. Just like there's a huge difference between 60 and 80, 80 and 100 (assuming humidity/dp is equal, of course), 30 and 50, etc.

Obviously. He was making it seem like zero and -20 feels the same. Not even close. That was my point. 

1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

Lake Plaid routinely gets down to -20 during cold snaps...ive been there twice for it...it aint pretty, but not as bad as you think.

At some point cold is just cold.

Wrong. There is a big difference between 0 and -20. 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

1/19/94 I was in -15 degree air and that was at noon with light winds. Any exposed skin just feels like needles are being stuck in your skin

I remember that day like it was yesterday.  I woke up to -22. Brutal. 

3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Earthlight and Isotherm are both very bright and talented forecasters - not taking anything away from them, but, here, in this instance, they are going to throw gutter balls this winter. The writing is on the wall. One week of cold, a snow event here and there and and annoyingly cold March (again) wont make this winter wintry. Damn November snow events

Speak for yourself. There are alot of people here who don't live in NYC or Long Island( the centers of the universe). This winter hasn't been great but I have received 15 inches so far and still have snow on the ground. Expecting another 2-4 by Wednesday morning. Temps have been pretty much average as well. Saying winter is over in January is just foolish even if you have had very little snow to date. 

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

If the4-11 period is warm I think it's a safe bet we can start ordering supplies from the gardening catalog.

You don't know that. There would still be plenty of winter left. I got a ton of snow last march. I'm not throwing in the towel until we are actually in March and the fat lady is singing. 

NWS Albany in their latest discussion saying a plowable snow is likely for much of their forecast area Tuesday evening.