HeadInTheClouds

24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Another week and more massive forecasting busts.  This is due to the euro being really bad so far this year in the 2 to 5 day range. Heck it was even really bad last event at 12z the day the event was ongoing.  

And how good have any of the other models been? The Euro has verified pretty well IMBY the last 2 events.  24-48 hrs prior It had me getting a total of 11 inches in early Dec and that is what I got. It had me getting 2 inches from the frontal wave and I received 1.5.  With this system models have been all over the place quite frankly. 

Can anybody post 12z Euro? Interested in what it has for snow/sleet/zr  north and west being that it was further south. FWIW weather channel forecast upgraded me to 3-5 inches on Tuesday. 

What the hell is the Nam doing?

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, the 10:1 ratio snowmaps aren’t going to work for this one either. There’s a lot of sleet in there getting counted as snow and the ratios are lower than 10:1 again. This isn’t a deep arctic airmass in place Monday and the models always underestimate the mid-level WAA/warm nose until the last minute

You are right on time making generalizations downplaying the event. This could be a real issue N and W with ZR on top of the 2-4 inches of snow/sleet on the front end. The Euro has been consistent with this for 3 days now. 

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The antecedent airmass isn’t all that very cold, we’re not talking unmodified arctic air. It all depends on a strong 50/50 low staying in place, acting as a block to lock the confluence and cold high in place. Otherwise the high just moves east, return flow, goodbye cold and it just cuts into the lakes as a rainstorm, a la this coming weekend 

Here we go again. The GFS is the only model that shows a cutter and even that scenario would still cause an extended period of frozen precip north and west of NYC before changeover to rain. Every other model shows a colder solution right now. 

36 and all snow in HV. 

Cold front has passed south and east of me in mid-hudson. 41 and cloudy right now. 

33 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Juicier, drier, juicier, drier... Back and forth we go. 

I'm expecting 1-2 for us in Mid-Hudson. Anything more would be a nice surprise. 

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Using 10:1 ratio snowmaps for Wednesday is ludicrous. The ratios are going to be lower than that, Bluewave explained in detail why before, to say they won’t be is wishcasting. Plus those maps count sleet as snow

Stop preaching. Those snow depth maps can be very inaccurate also. During last storm you posted those maps that showed Albany area getting ridiculously low amounts of additional snow. In reality they got a foot more than those maps were showing. You also said there was no way the setup for that storm was going to produce wintry precip. I wound up with 11 inches from your forecast rain storm. You need to be more specific on which area you are talking about or just STFU. 

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well eastern New England, like around Boston, must be having near blizzard conditions right now.

 

They may be but they won't be anywhere near the highest snow amounts that central NY state saw. 

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There are patterns and evolutions that you see and know how they will play out 90-95% of the time. As soon as models stuck on the bowling ball upper low moving south of us, and along with the lousy airmass it was clear that I-90 would get clobbered. I had 12-18” along the worst of it axis, which seems OK but should have been 12-24”. The worst ended up a little north of where I had it (seems like the heaviest amounts were along the NH/MA border) but for days it was clear it wouldn’t be our storm without major changes. The “table scraps” part last night was okay but not one of our pull out a miracle setups like Xmas 2002. It of course worked out in the end for Boston too but they won’t end up with the foot I thought they would. 6-9” looks like the total there. Clearly the short range models yesterday were horrible and way overdid the snow down here at times. 

It was pretty clear for a while that the axis of heaviest snow was going to be from Catskills to Albany area to western New England. Along and north of 84 did well too, but NYC metro was always going to be a crap shoot. 

Wound up with 11 inches in Hyde Park. For the most part you had to be around or north of 84 to get the goods on this one. 

29, absolutely puking snow and howling winds right now in Dutchess county. 

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And it's STILL coming down heavy around Albany. Some places there (maybe more just SW in the Catskills) will definitely have 25" by the end. 

There will be a 30 inch report from somebody in that area. 

Just now, snywx said:

Awesome event on this side. It was well modeled atleast for the HV. I think you guys on the E side of the river still cash in on a few inches tonight. Did you get anything today?

I'm in Hyde Park right on the river in western Dutchess and have picked up 5 so far. 31 and moderate snow right now. I see no reason why I can't pick up another 2-4 with those bands to the N and NE. 

10 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Pretty anemic stuff out here 

Thats what is was supposed to do until later this afternoon and tonight. I think we are going to get another 3-5 before its done. 

You guys get too emotional over each model run. RGEM shows nothing for Philly area and GFS shows a hit. Which is it? It's kind of comical. 

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here’s the more accurate depiction of what the 0Z NAM shows; 12 K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36  3K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36 

Sure it is. According to 3k just south of albany is going to get 1 more inch by tuesday morning, lol. maybe 1 more foot. 

Can't wait to see the IMBY hot takes when RGEM comes out. 

1 minute ago, NJsnow89 said:

Hearing the latest Hrrr is terrible 

Why would anybody be looking at Hrrr now when main precip potentially falls tomorrow afternoon and night? 

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

With the north wind that would come with part 2, the surface temps should drop to freezing or close, enough for it to accumulate right away or quickly.

Especially when a lot of the precip is falling after dark and may not end until 3-4am on Tuesday. 

26 and heavy snow with some sleet mixed in. 3 inches OTG. 

1 minute ago, Animal said:

Looks like it hammers nw nj 

Yes it does and NE penn. Everybody else pretty much gets the shaft. It just doesn't look right. Has 10 inches near Albany. They could get double that. 

GFS is horrible for everybody. 

6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Too bad this wasnt a weekend event. Would've been at my house ~2000' in Delaware county between Roscoe and Delhi.

Perfect spot for this one.