HeadInTheClouds

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's funny, and sad how the same people that bashed the NWS for calling for all rain yesterday are now bashing them for forecasting snow.

I want to say you have been one of the most level headed posters on this thread. Unfortunately I can't say the same for others and their incessant drama every time a new model run comes out. 

Even though Euro ticked north it still shows a good front end thump for HV, especially north of 84. Hour 66 shows .50 inch precip and about -5 850. 

I'm in HV a little north of Poughkeepsie. I have a question concerning above Nam maps. 1st Snow/sleet map gives me a foot, then next Kuchera map gives me 2.9 inches but I get zero accumulated freezing rain. What science goes into Kuchera map? Anybody know?

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Front end thump hopefully gives the majority of us at least several inches before Uncle Warm takes over.  Even up here in Dutchess County, I am expecting more ice than snow which sucks.  We are getting to the crucial window for guidance now so all model solutions have now a lot more weight.  Don't like the warming trends. 

I think we are going to get at least 6 inches before and changeover to sleet and FR. Just a tick further south and we could get a foot. Nothing set in stone yet. 

42 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Gfs is just not a good model. I think icon may be a better model than GFS. It seems like the GfS is good with the strength of the storm but that’s about

Agree, it's thermal profiles are often incorrect just like it was with November storm and just like it is now. 

GFS, CMC, and Ukie all were better than previous runs to some degree. I'm willing to bet Euro is the same or improves slightly. 

Perfect scenario for me in mid hudson valley. All snow. Lock it up. 

When does Ukie come out?

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

At 31-32° with those rates? I'll take the under.

Yeah but also remember ground will be cold and precip falling at night. 

GFS next on tap to disappoint. 

I agree with all the previous posts about the GooFuS. It's not very good but the FV3 which is supposed to replace it is worse IMO. 

21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No, the primary ice zone is from I-84 on the North end to about route 80 on the South side.

I'm about 20 miles north of 84 and Im just hoping the freezing rain stays south of me. Hate the ice. I'll take the snow and little bit of sleet. 

Just now, David-LI said:

Any news on the Ukie?

I heard 00z held serve. 

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Oh I've seen them mess up before in either direction. Not saying they're wrong, but wouldn't be first time if they are.

Being wrong is one thing but for the NWS to basically be so definitive about something that is 4-5 days out is unusual. 

Didn't Upton throw in the towel this afternoon? Somebody may have some splaining to do as Ricky Ricardo would say. 

Just now, NJwx85 said:

It was a great run for just about everyone here outside of maybe Eastern Long Island. 

Yup. I would take that in a heartbeat up here in mid-hudson valley. 

You know things aren't going our way when we are talking about JMA and ICON, lol. 

Just now, Gravity Wave said:

When the old GFS gets taken offline soon we're honestly going to be down to 2 semi-reliable models (Euro and UKMET). GEPS seem better but IDK if they're any better than the GEFS.

That is very true and sad. I don't trust GFS or FV3 beyond 72 hours. Do you know when GFS is going to be taken offline?

2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Am I the only one who thinks the FV3 might actually be worse than the GFS? 

It's awful, especially in mid-range. 

8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Meh. I want more. Greedy and needy. 

Ratios could be higher also, especially north of city. 

29 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Emphasis on weenie. Gfs all out rainstorm. They will toss it now but in 3 weeks when it shows a crazy solution at 180 hours it will be paraded around like a triple crown winner.

The GooFuS is a garbage model and I would say that if it was calling for a foot of snow. 

12 minutes ago, snow1 said:

Ukie remains south and we all know it was correct last year as well. Can’t ignore the consistency. 

It could be consistently wrong too. 

snowing moderate/heavy in Hyde Park.