HeadInTheClouds

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m 37 degrees here in Sloatsburg. The NAM and HRRR want nothing to do with tonight. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021718&fh=36

Stop speaking in absolutes. That still shows 1 or 2 inch snow depth change lower HV and 3-4 in my area. Did you think this was going to be a big storm?

18Z Nam gives some good amounts in lower and mid HV tonight. 

2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Those expecting March to bring us back to normal snowfall need to temper the expectations. Most of the biggest snowfall Marches would still fail to get us to normal unless this week can over achieve. Looking at the data and the snowfall year to date, I would give this season over a 75% chance at finishing below average for snowfall. That doesn't mean it is impossible to get to or go above average, but it just isn't statistically likely. If you want to see lots of snow this season, book your trips up to Killington, Stowe, Whiteface, etc. You can be upset with the lack of snowfall in NYC metro, but this season, if you have not seen the snow you want, that is on you. A day trip north can definitely let you enjoy winter and lots of it. I would have been skiing a lot more than I have this year, but it is much harder to travel with a 5-month old. 

I don't see anyone saying March will get people back to normal. That doesn't mean there won't be some snow though. 

4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

The question I have is----cold relative to "normal" temps which are rising weekly?  Or do you mean just Cold for winter?

Below normal and cold enough to snow. Early March is still winter and early March storms are not unusual. 

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you can't believe  the long range models past 5 days but it seems some people get suckered in Hook Line and Sinker every time the GFS shows a great pattern in the longer range past 5 -7 days...….which it has been doing many times this winter......

That is true but MJO may cooperate this time around going from 8 to 1. I think early March will be cold. 

Tonight's system looks to be decent event north of NYC metro. WWA for 2-5 inches in Mid HV. 

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM is nowhere near 4-6+ for the area, not even close. Don’t use the 10:1 ratio maps that count sleet as snow, they are grossly inaccurate, real bad. Here is the actual, unbiased snowmap for the new NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021700&fh=60

I said it showed 4-6 for mid hudson valley where all snow is expected and I didn't say it was correct. 2-4 is a more reasonable call. 

Our area meaning mid hudson valley.

Just now, White Gorilla said:

For Wednesday or tomorrow? 

Nam shows 4-6 for our area tomorrow night and Monday. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Slop to all rain setup once again, only this time the antecedent air mass isn’t as cold. It is not favorable for this storm either

That's very surprising you would say that. 

25 and light snow and sleet. 

Back to light snow, 20*. 

Cold air hanging tough. 21 with moderate sleet. 

19 and heavy snow, about 3 OTG. 

Enjoying my nothing burger and accumulation fries for lunch. 18* and moderate snow. 

18 and moderate snow continues in Hyde park. 

12 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Exactly as forecast one week ago and 24 hours ago.

 

Models are damn good. You just have to see what they are showing, even if you dont want to see it.

You're the best man. You should change careers and see if NWS has any openings. Right now by me 18* and moderate snow. 

19* with moderate snow. 

27/9 with a clear sky and light north wind. 

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Yeah, I don't care much about the snow depiction, which could be wrong - I was concerned that the NAM went from 90% LE as sleet to 50% LE as sleet with the rest rain from 12Z to 18Z, while the RGEM, GFS and others were also showing more rain and less frozen, so I was ecstatic to see the 0Z NAM go back to 80-90% of the total precip as frozen.  Was just looking at the direction the NAM went and I like it.  

Yeah, I just think nam is wrong on this one with such a quick changeover to sleet. I will give it it's due if it turns out to be correct but it's more likely it's not. 

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

0Z NAM is the first piece of good news I've seen since the 12Z NAM, given the models trending badly today, for the most part - 0Z NAM bumps frozen LE back up for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC vs. 18Z.  Still almost all the frozen is sleet, as per the PW map, below, showing <1" snow, as the NAM has been showing for many runs, but more frozen is better than less.  I've been peering over the edge based on the crappy 18Z runs today - hopefully things are looking back up.  We'll see. 

 

 

 

Have a real hard time believing this snow map. 1 inch by me in mid hudson valley and only 4 in Albany. Seriously doubt it, and nam is only one that shows this. 

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

That's WWA criteria. 

Yes, I know. Not too bad but any ice sucks. 

5 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

We went through this last time when people made these statements. CT and parts of the Hudson Valley had trees and power lines down due to ice. 

Yup. My forecast is for .15 -.20 of ice on top of the snow and sleet. 

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Inland areas are in for a huge mess tomorrow. HRRR has them mainly in the 20s with hours of sleet/ZR. 

The current dews in the teens are a red flag that the surface will stay colder and longer than forecast. 

Very little snow with this now. 

 Again, it depends where you live and everybody sees front end snow. HRRR has me snowing for 6-8 hours before changing to sleet, and my forecast is for 6-8 inches of snow/s;eet. 

11 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I know everyone on here loves the snow.  I used to love snow as much as anyone.   Now things are different.  Doesn’t mean I don’t enjoy this site, the people who post or their forecasts. 

Im definitely anti snow now.  No argument from me.  And I do enjoy a good snowstorm, prefer weekend storms though.   I don’t think this storm is going to deliver though.  I’ve lived through countless storms like these on Long Island.  Rain seems to win these scenarios

It was never supposed to deliver on the Island. What is very possible is that you pick up and inch or 2, depending on south or north shore, then turning to sleet and then rain. Because it may be washed away does not mean it will not snow. That is not wishcasting.