HeadInTheClouds

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Any wobble can have a huge effect 

It's not a wobble. It's a cave. GFS was stingy with QPF inland for the entire event giving my area .1 or so qpf for days while nearly every other model in particular the mesos were giving significantly more. GFS just doing what it does. 

GFS caved to the mesos with low closer to coast and more qpf inland. 

CMC 10:1 and Kuchera

RGEM 

ICON 

2 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

And with Kuchera snow map

10:1 would also be wrong especially N and W when ratios could be 15:1. 

Nam - I hate this model. 

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

HRRR is a tad more RGEM like than Euro like at 00Z

Yup

Just now, wishcast_hater said:

What a disappointment.  The Midwest gets slammed twice and we cutters and now next to nothing.

We just got a foot in Dutchess county last weekend. I'll take the 2-4 or whatever it is. 

Still looking 1-3/2-4 type event. 

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Trending flat

Huh? It's the long range nam so take FWIW but it did give NYC metro 3-4 inches and was still snowing. 

Right now this looks like a 1-3/2-4 type event on Tuesday with more on Friday which is still TBD and the GFS goes a little crazy on.  

The CMC, UKIE, ICON, all brought light to possibly moderate snows to the area. GFS was a complete disaster. Also likely some snow this weekend. 

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Can't even get the nam onboard. I'm afraid this one is gonna be a nothing burger

The nam is not a nothing burger but it's the long range nam so who knows. 

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

winters we had as children especially us older folks are from a bygone era...

Yes. I remember walking to school in snowstorms and freezing cold backwards and uphill both ways. 

13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z NAM was pretty flat at 84 hours. It's impossible to know what would have happened since I'm pretty sure the DGEX doesn't exist anymore. Anyway, typically in these situations you want to see the long range NAM super amped up because of its known bias for being over amplified with respect to coastal storms.

The 18z RGEM would have been a nice hit and the 18z Icon was pretty good but they are 18z's of course so saying it's over after a bad 18z GFS run 4 days out run with a known south and east bias is a little premature. 

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Despite what we have seen the past few winters I'm more worried about OTS than mixing with this storm. The only way I can see temps/precip type an issue if the storm comes in really fast and amped like the CMC before the cold is entrenched.

Yes, at this point I would agree with that. 

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I said 1-3 is being generous until the EURO comes on board.......Walt started the 1-3 prediction at this point

 

Walt said 1-3 because he was worried about possible mixing issues along the coast on the 00z CMC. 12z was further east and colder. 

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'll never forget how enthusiastic he was about January 2016 (although it didn't affect his area nearly as much as it affected us down here), but he called that storm moving north to give NYC an HECS and that's exactly what happened.

So once in 8 years. 

5 minutes ago, milleand said:

Always supports his opinion with thorough explanations, images, data etc. 

Although, it may not be what everyone wants to hear, I have learned a lot about weather from him. As well as a lot of others on here. 
 

Hoping it snows for All in this forum

You are obviously new here. The guy never thinks it's going to snow and any model that shows nothing or warm and wet is the model that he hugs. I have never seen a positive post from him about an upcoming event if it means a snow possibility. With this snow potential next week the CMC, GFS, Ukie, Icon show a possible wintry solution to differing degrees. The Euro shows nothing. Which model do you think he is touting right now? I just laugh. 

Finished with 12 inches. Nice little storm. Good thing winter didn't end in December. 

28 with heavy snow. Picked up about 3 in the last hour. Up to about 8 now. 

14 minutes ago, snywx said:

For once we have a big bust incoming for us.. on the good side

11” otg

heavy snow continues 

And you were worried. 

Loving all the snow reports. 31 with steady light snow, started about 15 minutes ago. 

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s one of the warmest currently 

and driest.