kvegas-wx
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Everything posted by kvegas-wx
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If the FV3 can nail two storms, one from 10 days out and the other from 15 days out, then scrap the rest of the models. We have the one we need for winter forecasts. Slightly off topic, how did the FV3 do earlier this year with severe storm setups, hurricanes, etc?
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I get it. And I had my day when I wanted it. But when I had to plow up 4' high walls of it 100 yards long yesterday it quickly becomes more trouble than its worth. I LOVE snow. But I think 4" events cover everything from a sledder to the enthusiasts.
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I want everyone here to get their snow so dont take this the wrong way, but I never want to see over a foot of snow again. I think 4" is about right. Coat everything, cover the grass, you can walk in it, drive in it, shovel it fairly easily, businesses stay open and it melts quick. The order of magnitude increase in complexity of everything with the limited snow removal resources here in the south is unreal. The ideal winter for me going forward is 3-4 4" inch events with one of them being Christmas morning. A foot is cool if you dont actually have to function for 3-4 days.
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I hear ya and share your concern. Power already flickered once tonight. The only positive to the wind was that most of the snow weight blew out of the trees earlier today. If we get a couple tenths of ZR that wind will quickly work against us. Light ZR here in Kvegas / Walkertown.
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As impressed as I have been thus far, this would really take the cake. For those out east that got blanked today to walk away with 2-4" tomorrow would be incredible. Any other HiRes models on board with this much additional? I think I saw the HRRR may be bullish over in the Obs thread.
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Yep. I'm just sayin' expectations are high and memories are still a bit raw. Seeing some early flurries in the Triad now so maybe things are about ready to fulfill the multiple Burger Booms we saw this week.
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Watching CLT piss away all this QPF just trying to drop 5 degrees has me worried for the Triad. If we get to 1am and all I see are posts about mixing, virga and nothing yet, the majority of this board is going to start having flashbacks. Its never easy here......ever. I do feel bad for those in SC and GA that invested heavily and are coming up empty. You need another surprise 6" snow in downtown ATL!
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Precip is smashing into a brick wall across TN and NC. Any thoughts on whether or not this may end up being our initial SN/IP battle line until later tomorrow as the warm nose starts to creep in? If so, that puts CLT squarely in the ice zone and the rest of the central and NW piedmont all snow for quite a while.
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So the heavy precip looks to be nearly finished by tomorrow night. Which feature are we looking at to extend this into Monday? Originally I thought it was just a slow system riding up the coast. But after seeing a couple models kick this quickly OTS over night, is there a second low swinging thru? I saw a mention of a double barrel low thru my weary eyes overnight.
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I really think the wx offices are gonna need to accelerate their WSWs. RAH has a 1am Sunday morning start for the Triad. Seems much much quicker than that on radar. I'd bet we see winter conditions spread across the area by 6pm tomorrow. GFS hinted at it, radar certainly shows it, maybe it nailed the OTS quicker solution!?
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Be careful, you cant say weenie in here anymore. And you definitely cant draw it into a weather map!
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as in almost 12 hours of precip compared to timing on globals, no?
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Then Grit better deliver the BOOM!!
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There goes my flight out of GSO-CLT Tuesday morning. Time to rebook tomorrow. Anybody posting a PBP on the Euro tonight? Kinda quiet in here right now.
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Burger showing up for a PBP tonight?
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Huh?? Lucy got some splainin' to do. Image?
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I predict this storm may just bust a nut all over southern wake county. Should be ample coverage for those folks.
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I was so trying to avoid this place. It feels kinda ookie in here. Like a bunch of people in VA had nightmares about suppression and collectively sweat the bed. I need a shower.....
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Absolutely fascinating and quite honestly, I learned something valuable. Made the last 5 days of sleep deprivation and storm prep all worth it! Belated thanks Isohume!
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Ouch. NAM says I can use a shovel instead of a blower after all. About a third of the FV3 total!
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Beat me to it. And you read them a lot more than I do. But I cant see sleet in that??
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I keep seeing this model tossed into the discussion. I think it has been around since the mid 90's but is it still considered experimental? Is it private B2B subscription model? Just wondering with over 20 years of data and tweaking, who is actually using it?
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If the storm plays out as modeled I think we'll all be surprised, yet happy. But if things take a dramatic turn, the post mortem on this one is going to be an incredible read.
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Welcome! Yep. INT is winston salem. RDU is raleigh. CLT is Charlotte.
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Thanks CAD. May your user name be the talk of the town this weekend!
