kvegas-wx
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Everything posted by kvegas-wx
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Beat me to it. And you read them a lot more than I do. But I cant see sleet in that??
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I keep seeing this model tossed into the discussion. I think it has been around since the mid 90's but is it still considered experimental? Is it private B2B subscription model? Just wondering with over 20 years of data and tweaking, who is actually using it?
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If the storm plays out as modeled I think we'll all be surprised, yet happy. But if things take a dramatic turn, the post mortem on this one is going to be an incredible read.
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Welcome! Yep. INT is winston salem. RDU is raleigh. CLT is Charlotte.
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Thanks CAD. May your user name be the talk of the town this weekend!
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As models like the RGEM and HRRR enter the discussion this weekend, we should have models to look at every couple hours or so tomorrow and Saturday. Does anyone have an old post, or maybe a current summary available that lists the model run times for all models?
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Oh yeah, we're so gonna crush those grounds temps, and quickly! So remove ground temps from your winter storm reasons for failure checklist. It's gonna accumulate no problem.
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Knowing the ground wont get any warmer over the next couple of days, anyone have a hotlink to a soil temp map? We're certainly not frozen, but we arent in the upper 40s either. Rates will easily overcome current conditions. (Crystal clear tonight in the triad. Cold already!)
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Sunday start for the potential heavy stuff. Should be fine in Ral for saturday night as it stands now.
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Maybe a 3 way call with proper introductions? Do these guys even know each other? Maybe an annual holiday party or something? Good grief!
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The HP is weaker and north, the LP is north by quite a bit too. Eagerly awaiting another EURO run now. I feel as if the lug nuts are getting loose.
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Good for the mountain communities today, that's gonna be a heckuva lot more than an inch or two for Boone at those rates. A hot streak in December for the ski resorts! Educational question - what model(s) are incorporated into the Bufkit product? Just one run or multiple runs? Curious how frequently those get updated and if we get a drastic shift in the models in the next day or two, if the shift will be as equally drastic in the Bufkit product or if it will be averaged out over time?
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So even with some positive Euro totals overnight, it started to waffle around with phasing and bringing the whole system north. Now I see my forecast for the triad has gone to three straight days of freezing rain in the Triad. 3 days!! I really hope that we arent on a razers edge with strong CAD, a crappy storm track and a month of power outages. But I am afraid somebody, more likely south of me, should be investing in a generator. On a brighter note, FV3 says calm down Euro.
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Dude you have no chance. Clearly it is time for a snow chase. Pack it up!
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Lanie Pope goes with a 10-30% chance of accumulating snow over the WXII coverage area. Last time I checked their coverage area includes a few tall thingies called mountains!?! She may want to update that slightly for the 11pm broadcast.
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Can you share this?
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I see today is the day that begins a new stage of grief as we are now moving from "bargaining" to "depression" once the reality begins to set in. Happens every storm without fail. Don't worry, "acceptance" of your fate is a mere 72 hours away! (accept for Mack, he's already moved on to his first January storm)
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If anyone has any ointment, you might want to start looking for flies. Climo says no, history says no. I wont bet against those two ever when something this unprecedented comes along. We dont get historic, Sierra Nevada snows in December with marginal temps, 48 hour duration and uncannily perfect timing of two systems. It just.doesnt.happen. So where's that fly?
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I equate this experience to watching Tiger Woods tee off on the 1st hole in the Masters on day 1 and having everyone (us) scream "Baba Booey!!!" as loud as we can. Meanwhile Tiger just snap hooked the ball into the trees about 200 yards down the fairway. Moral of the story.....no amount of screaming and enthusiastic support could have made that ball go straight.
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A 1040 HP parked over Buffalo next to a frozen Lake Erie? But I'll take what I can get.
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Making a note of these comments. Could be quite relevant in the next 48 hours or so once we get a better sense of the strength of the HP. I do hope you are wrong, but the little guy on my shoulder is whispering you are probably right.
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It's 5 1/2 days away and nothing will change. It's locked in. You heard it here first! Seriously though, I bought two shovels today. The last snow shovel at Lowe's. I'll be returning it tomorrow and buying a plow if anyone wants my shovel.
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We had a slider across NGA last year and I think we had sunny weather that day here in GSO, so it isnt unprecendented. I just think its unlikely to see such a strong HP this early in the season to net that kind of supression. I'll keep my money on climo and go with a solid NC and upstate event for now. Significant snow in Dec into NGA is beyond rare.
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Lol, only place outside of DC where "truth" has a shorter shelf life is this weather board and my kid's snapchat. We get 6 hour doses of reality.
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With the ample HP to the north, CAD should be locked into place NW of 85. This is gonna be a snow or no event with a crazy sharp cutoff somewhere between Burlington and Durham. We've seen this movie before!
