Thinksnow18

We're becoming the Rochester of temperature boosting...

It's actually in the 1st ring suburb of Cheektowaga literally 1/2 mile from 2nd ring suburb Williamsville...its right on the buffalo niagara international airport grgrounds...lots of vegetation around...thats why I'm a bit surprised

So I have an observation...ive noticed the past week that each morning the temp at the NWS KBUF site is 6 to 7 degrees warmer than surrounding sites...i see it every morning on WIVB and this morning was no different. All the northern area sites were low to mid 50's and KBUF is at 64...is the instrument off? I live 3 miles and change from the NWS and I find it hard to believe as my backyard is sitting at 56.8 and 3 miles away it's 64?

Yeah that definitely could've pulled down enough cold air if it was close by

The average high for that date is 70.1 degrees and the low is 50.9 that's crazy!!!

What could have possibly happened to make that take place?

In fact what scares me most is the two outliers are from the most recent weak periods for La Nina

05-06 and 11-12 say hold my beer...i wish it was uniform cold across the board so I could feel a bit more comfortable in your research data

While im in agreement with you, I can't help but think of pattern persistence. For the last few years the Bermuda Ridge has been strong and resilient no matter what type of enso or other meteorlogical driver in play...im just hoping this isn't a pre-cursory view.

So that cool down next week? Sounds alot like our winter the second half of last year... Heading into the first part of the work week, still expecting deeper troughing to take shape west of the area over the central U.S., bounded by upper ridging on its` eastern and western peripheries. Meanwhile another area of surface low pressure will move from the upper Great Lakes to northern Quebec Monday into Tuesday, with another cold front trying to approach the area from the west. Individual run to run model inconsistency, along with discrepancies between the models persist at this time range. This continues to make it difficult to determine just how far east the cold front will make it, as the Bermuda ridge continues to strengthen over the western Atlantic, building westward over the East Coast. Just how far west/northwest the strong upper ridge can infiltrate will eventually help determine if the actual surface front can near or move into the area bringing the chance for some precipitation, or instead remain off to the west of the region with mainly warm and dry conditions prevailing. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will remain a bit above normal on Monday and Tuesday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s.

So...that nice blue graph that BW posted at the top of the page has legs after all...just read the latest AFD from buf and it states: Looking further into next week, the pattern appears that it will become even more amplified pushing into mid week with the coolest air of the season poised to pour across the upper Midwest and Mississippi Valley, of which a chunk of this will eventually make its` way over this way later in the week. Tough to iron out the finer details at this point, but it looks like there could be a very `interesting` stretch of weather headed our way for next week. Stay tuned! &&

Yeah all the long range temps have been bumped up a bit already...seems like the warm bias continues

Forecasting imo is getting worse and worse.

Yep and just as I posted earlier the buffalo Metro north rain shadowed

Yes I agree with the winds SW off the lake the Buffalo Metro and surrounding northern burbs will probably have the best chance to miss these storms. I'm thinking the rains on Friday night and Saturday have a chance for a much more widespread affect across the area.

Laura at 150 mph...what a beautiful storm on radar...i hope that everyone who was supposed to evacuate did because this will be catastrophic.

140mph...whether Laura gets to 156 is no matter at this point...there is significant flooding all along the coast from the storm surge as we speak...winds will only exasperate this issue.

That's an awful lot of gators and snakes that are going to be washed into the residential areas from the swamps and bayous...billy the exterminator is going to be awfully busy...

Already lots of flooding inland in southern LA and the storm is still 12 hours or so from landfall...and to make matters worse the highest tide of the entire month is scheduled for right around landfall at 1am. As for our situation I think the worst will spare the buffalo Metro area and we could see several spin-ups tomorrow east of here. A truly wild weather week for sure!!!

They are now also forecasting 20+ft storm surge towards lake Charles area...doubt those numbers make it that far inland, however, there is zero terrain in that area so water will have little problem going 30 to 40 miles inland...

I was just going to post I have TWC on and Cantore is speaking with the Gov of LA right now and he tipped his hand that he just spoke with the NHC and NWS and the next advisory will be quite a bit more intensity than was forecast.

When Did that change?!

Great conversation all...and possibly the best to come...from the AP, Reuters and others, it has been confirmed that a 31 yr old fron Hong Kong has officially contracted different strains of Covid- 19...this was done through research through labs that have identified new and different strain than the first virus contracted 4 mos ago. The man is asympotmatic and they are thrilled that the immune response acted just as it should in muting the New strain from developing further...if this has legs herd immunity or a vaccine of positive patients plasma may not be far off...

Lmao no I'm not Sled Hill and I'm in Williamsville now...but fwiw being Sled would be interesting...to be able to shift an entire weather pattern just with your mere presence would be kinda cool...

Saw that this morning...the next couple weeks might offer very similar opportunitues off both lakes.