Thinksnow18

https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1343646568474406915 hoping I got this right...

As Dave would say time to ride the Canook!!!

Lmao I was just going to discuss!!!

Well conceding the fact it’s only - 4 to -6 c the avg high is 31 so that would equate to below freezing temps, which like BW stated we snow instead of rain...small victories

Nah all ensembles showing it as you alluded to earlier in fact the 18z GFS says big cold dump still in the cards 2 weeks from now

That is the hope we need

I mean that is only a full week and it does start to trend towards neutral so maybe that’s why the very same model that’s forecasting that is forecasting 4 days later a cold dump into the east...could be a good sign, I mean look at what barely negative just did for us! 20+“ of snow

Oddly on the GFS it goes east coast and that’s only next week too, the GFS isn’t until the 11th

So to all my rowdy friends I beg this question. What Is the reason it is so difficult to dislodge the dreaded Bermuda high? Every storm on the GFS and Euro go west and north pushing away seemingly just as strong Arctic high pressure with relative ease. I guess I’m wondering why one can anchor and stay for weeks and affect our storm track while the other is transient and constantly giving way to LP systems...I would think (amateur opinion here) that if both were of equal strength that the system would have a squeeze play of sorts giving us some warmer storms and some colder storm but not all warmer storms...any thoughts?

Tug hill must’ve come back from his vacation...

At the end of both the 00z and the 6z GFS there is a pretty big cold dump across the east and 6z would be (fantasy I know) an event for the metro that would be epic...one can dream...

I don’t think I’ve ever looked at 2 weeks of rain in January

It’s gotta change. Hopefully we have that one big storm that kinda resets the pattern and all goes well after.

Agreed lots of time left, and from perusing the mid-Atlantic blog I know you guys score best in February in many winters. A good block with a PV over Hudson Bay would be a very nice thing for the MA

Yeah IF the modeling is correct about a PV split then typically we would have a mild stretch beforehand and then the PV would take over for a few weeks. That stretch of mid January to mid February could be our winter

What exactly is a “scattered” lake effect band” ? that’s issue #1

I like the chances of a gradient type system sheer you could see 29 degrees close to Lake Ontario and 45 degrees near PA line.

Yeah great for large synoptic systems terrible for mesoscale

Yeah it’s quite puzzling how poorly they handle these events. I go back to the January 2018 event you and I discussed a couple days back. Same scenario same result. Models the Mets here used grossly under forecast the northward extend of the band and viola the north towns got pummeled then as well, and I know there’s plenty of other instances I just can’t remember them all.

You know I do wonder a bit regarding the lake effect modeling. As amateur weather enthusiasts (for the 99% on here) how is it that we know that early season lake effect runs a good 5 to 10 miles further north than forecast? And worse many of the local Mets have even worse technology regarding their in-house models ( I think it was channel 2 showed the band never making it above the nearby south towns) rendering them useless. Is there a chance, oh I don’t know, that living an area that gets the magnitude of LES we do can figure out a better modeling component?

Way to go Wolfie!

The band that wouldn’t be stopped

So the GFS has been on this for 3 runs now? Still has 19” at KBUF, while I don’t buy that it is later this week so maybe it’s on to a trend?

Dude great stuff!!! You earned your 716 snow chasers badge...I mean cash or other perks would be better but this in its infancy so...

Yeah I’m not too proud to beg for more...