Thinksnow18

I think far WNY is going to be over 6”

2 things...it’s down to 39 right now in Williamsville and Cleveland is snowing already, also the slug of moisture from the south is massive! That’s a lot to come through once the freezing line crosses the area.

Does anyone else think the transition to snow is going to be faster than 10pm?

Winds at Grand Rapids Michigan are still out of the SW and the lake effect is still firing...

I’m right in the 18” to 24” line

Wow...that is straight SW winds

I have no words

And a further shift north...this could be pretty epic

I love how these totals are going up! 16 at KBUF?! Even if that means 13” here no complaints...my point and and click has heavy snow Friday night and Saturday am before 1pm...looking good.

That shows exactly what the NWS is saying how the band starts south of metro and lifts north by nightfall...that is beautiful

That’s called a thing of beauty

I’m riding the line of 8-12”

That map would have NW winds...look at the snow accumulation over NW PA...it drags NW to SE...not one variant of west or SW winds...

WIVB is the same! I’m not sure but their in house models must be their own versions of things.

I just went to the WIVb website and the weather page...it was Andrew still and his forecast is polar opposite of the NWS forecast...he expects the lake band to be in the city early Christmas Day and then south to ski country by evening...which is the polar opposite of the NWS forecast of the lake band shifting north by the evening and intensifying over the metro north towns...on another note on their website they have the warnings for each county and it appears the NWS has upped the totals from 7 to 17” to 9 to 17”...WIVb has the old one. If I remember correctly the storm they forecast back in January of 18 they also did a poor job with it even when all guidance suggested otherwise. They’re slipping.

The only essentials this winter is a fridge full of beer and finding a cure for the Matt curse

Don’t have a subscription

I guess our confusion lies in the choice of model they’re using. The euro and GFS have warning criteria snowfall for pretty much most of WNY but the NAM and EURO have better setups for LES.

You can’t make this up

18z GFS has that band over metro for about 10 hours late Friday into Saturday at.

Still weird how much synoptic it gives us

Well...my guess is it makes it into the north towns fir at least 4 to 6 hours late evening on Christmas. That probably where myself and that lakeeffectkid get our shot

Still push the proverbial 5 miles north...

So the local WIVB net has 4-8 for Hamburg north and 2-4 southern Niagara-far northern Erie... with a lake effect snow warning...where the NWS has 7-17...I want to become a meteorologist

That is right to the Erie- Niagara border. With the heaviest snow about 5 miles south