Thinksnow18

6z was the first wall to wall wintry pattern ive witnessed in some time...which means cutter after cutter on the 12z...

These models are not handling the SSW well at all. I saw somewhere today, maybe the NE forum, that now the forecast is for 3 sister vortex to form in mid January! This might be why the GFS looks like it’s on a bender with Charlie sheen

Come on Canadian!!! I mean Canook!!! Sorry Dave...

Right over KBUF

GFS is all over the road...the 6z and 0z had huge cutters at the ends of their run and huge cold dumps over the east...the 12z says yeah I’ll just keep it zonal...

Great point and really with the exception of the fish all the other teams are northern anyways...Baltimore, Cleveland, Pittsburgh...

Not a chance. Miami’s starting lineup will slap the second team around. They’re much better than you give them credit for. They’re not better than the starters however they beat some very good teams this year, including the pats the game before, not that they’re good but the pats ran them out of Gillette stadium the first game and this game was much different just like the second game with the bills was with New England...Flores is a damn good coach and for the next decade it’s Bills Dolphins like the 80’s and 90’s for the division each year.

If Stefon diggs or josh Allen hurt themselves innocuously (think thumb for Goff or blown out knee for diggs making a simple cut like the hurricanes QB D’riq King made the other night) and all hopes of a SB are gone. The extra home game is A) not what it used to be due to low fan numbers allowed and the Steelers probably will not get past the first round anyways. I can’t listen anymore to any one wanting that 2 seed: the risks FAR outweigh the rewards.

Yeah they call that the new normal...

It’s looking more favorable for sure, the key is the ridge out west and the block over Greenland relaxing s bit and shifting its axis to a more favorable position...now it just has to happen...

Yes the middle of the month!!! I think the first and second half are...wait for it...polar opposites of each other

12z Euro overall has a “colder look to it than the GFS. It has more systems with snow than rain after the Thursday Friday system. Definitely 2 different camps right now.

Tug hill Matt...the Steve Bartman of our forum...

We could be on here to something here

I also don’t understand, obviously, the PNA. If it’s positive, as it has been the entire winter so far and forecast to be into middle of winter, then why is there not a ridge out west? I know, EPO, however if I recall when the pacific was crap last year I believe the PNA was mainly positive but the AO was ridiculously positive as well and it was said if the AO would just help out we could work with that.

He sucks when it comes to his theory on Siberian snow advance indicator (his own theory of course) but all he’s doing, same as Webb yesterday and many other Mets right now, is reading the outputs from the GFS. In no way can be be misinterpreting what it’s saying as it’s there for all to see.

I think the GFS is really struggling right now. It is on one end, according to what Cohen just showed, predicting the PV split to occur around the 9th or so and one lobe actually centers around the st. Lawrence valley. This is a very strange location and I believe is complicating the GFS own outputs. It doesn’t know how to handle the PV in that location. It’s all I’ve got.

You know when we were younger and we first began the WIVB weather blog all we knew were those 3 indicies and what strength El Niño or La Niña was that season...I can’t believe that with all those things INCLUDING the MJO in a perfect position that one ****ing indicie trumps then all?!?!?! Honestly I believe if that’s the case then forecasting sensible weather from here on out will be nearly impossible, and don’t let the CPC or NOAA fool you that they were in to something because if these indicies showed up in November as a forecast I promise you their outlooks would be different. I’m an angry weather weenie and I approve this message

We went to holiday valley on Sunday to go tubing (if you haven’t gone it’s about 4 miles from the resort, kinda odd) and I accidentally went to the main part of HV...it was LOADED...there was a mile backup through the village and that was just to get in to the road to get to the lodge...it looked like a damn bills game there were so many cars and they had probably 6 people directing traffic in and out...and this was at 4:30 in the evening!!! My point is there really wasn’t much in the way of distancing and many people were out and about

18z is a hot mess

I think that Arctic high will be tougher to move than first modeled.

The odd part is it behaved like an exact meteorological winter...December through February then nothing. I would take that as after February snow is useless.

Well that is because we were ridiculously cold and everything went east, but I would think at the beginning of it we could score some heavy lake effect events before the storm track goes south and East

I agree about the inaccuracies of forecasting anything beyond 5 days honestly but the forecast for the MMW is actually beginning to happen, in about a weeks time it will couple with the troposphere and then we’ll know more. This isn’t a matter of if but when. In fact the link I copied earlier today from Eric Webb actually referenced ‘09-‘10 as an analog.

Not sticking up for any but you’re showing January 7th. The cold dump is more likely the following week. Lots of chatter everywhere about this...a little pain now and the 4 to 6 weeks after will be better.