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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    And that’s my big issue with local meteorology...all day models show the band “hugging” the Lake Erie shoreline, this must be a default to the mean. It almost never happens that way yet that’s how they forecast almost every time. I believe these models have a “southern bias “ to them based on algorithms within the model outputs.
  2. Thinksnow18
    Amazingly that’s a 173 degree temp swing in less than 6 months! They went over 100 got the first time ever this summer and now they’re 173 degrees colder...damn
  3. Thinksnow18
    Definitely a beautiful place
  4. Thinksnow18
    If that lines up the cutoff would be about 2 miles south of my house...yeah that’s about right..
  5. Thinksnow18
    I’m pretty sure we’re all looking at a very sharp cutoff to the better snows over the next couple weeks. Model trends are not our friends right now and unless you live in higher terrain in the favorable spots then I’m guessing you’ll be seeing more grass than snow.
  6. Thinksnow18
    Baglini on WIVB wants NOTHING to do with LES in metro north
  7. Thinksnow18
    Returns upstream over western lower Michigan have really blossomed over the past 2 hours...could be a sign of things to come tonight
  8. Thinksnow18
    Now that matches what the NWS is going with
  9. Thinksnow18
    Yeah but the output on the “Canook” is much lower than the NWS totals
  10. Thinksnow18
    I’m not sure either. I also don’t see 3-4” for Niagara Falls
  11. Thinksnow18
    The Chautauqua ridge in a town called Perrysburg, local legend meteorologist Don Paul used to mention her frequently on air as the most well known spotter in the snowiest place in WNY...laughable that both spots have a Carol who measures snow... maybe Carol is the new Karen...
  12. Thinksnow18
    The funny thing is the 2 areas of upstate that receive the most snow both have a woman named Carol who measures each location...conspiracy theorists unite!!!
  13. Thinksnow18
    AFD is interesting. Using the Canadian as model of choice for tonight. An odd forecast as they call for 3-5 tonight and tomorrow (6-10) for the south towns into metro Buffalo and slightly less totals for the remainder of Erie county. This almost sounds lake enhanced more than pure lake effect? BW thoughts?
  14. Thinksnow18
    Looks like the GFS is all against the cold air hanging around much after next week. More cutters and rain.
  15. Thinksnow18
    I think its funny they discounted that model. I wonder what makes them pass...
  16. Thinksnow18
    Well at least someone in our area is getting in on the fun!
  17. Thinksnow18
    18z still cuts that next major storm...one has to think, if we have all these things in our favor now then what will it take to get a pattern that lasts for more than 5 days?
  18. Thinksnow18
    I guess I’m just surprised with a SW travel just north of the region the winds won’t go sw
  19. Thinksnow18
    KBUF AFD wants nothing to do with the lake effect over metro at all...not sure why?
  20. Thinksnow18
    My guess is this will bump north after midnight on Tuesday am...that when the north towns get in on the action
  21. Thinksnow18
    That’s the gift that keeps on giving Clark
  22. Thinksnow18
    Right which is why I called them lazy. Last night they went into great depth. This morning east if the lakes. It doesn’t take a meteorologist to see the S/W diving in Monday night and Tuesday.
  23. Thinksnow18
    I see they lowered the totals at KBUF...they can’t seem to make up their minds...
  24. Thinksnow18
    More lazy forecasting by the Buffalo NWS on the AFD.
  25. Thinksnow18
    RGEM we trust!
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