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Thinksnow18

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  1. Thinksnow18
    It is perplexing but I did state earlier Carl Parker from TWC did show the Euro model with winds backing by evening on that model...maybe they have a different look? You know KBUF uses all models so they’re seeing some consistency we don’t
  2. Thinksnow18
    Well...when it comes to lake effect the Buffalo office is one of the best. I will say, however, if there’s a full tilt band over Buffalo and the north towns 3” an hour is not out of the question IMO
  3. Thinksnow18
    Yeah again no sense
  4. Thinksnow18
    So I’m confused. They seem to be giving more credence to the synoptic over southern Erie and Chautauqua co? Is that the 4 inch higher totals?
  5. Thinksnow18
    Boom... and they did not specify just south of Buffalo either! Looks like we’re all in the game
  6. Thinksnow18
    The thing that confuses me with KBUF is they always seem slow to react...every global shows 6 to as much as 9” of snow and they’re 3 to 5? Also from the dept of FWIW I was watching thd weather channel a few moments ago mainly for the blizzard in the plains and Carl Parker (respect him) showed the euro model and the wind field for the system, and by 11pm Friday night they are SW over the lake. They did begin westerly but did switch as the night went on...something to watch?
  7. Thinksnow18
    At first it might even be 8 to 1 by the time it winds down it will be closer to 15 to 1...that could be 10”...I also noticed the PA watches were upgraded to warnings.
  8. Thinksnow18
    Which we know is incorrect because there’s warm weather advection by Saturday morning...that run seems strange
  9. Thinksnow18
    KBUF really low in the synoptic portion IMO
  10. Thinksnow18
    KBUF does not like the synoptic on this event
  11. Thinksnow18
    Yeah that seems very low considering what the models are spitting out. I do wonder if this storm is faster than forecast?
  12. Thinksnow18
    The question is it on its own in that depiction? Seems like the other models (NAM, GFS, RGEM) disagree with it. Thoughts?
  13. Thinksnow18
    I think no matter what all watches go to warnings. Just might not be for the reasons we thought...
  14. Thinksnow18
    Yeah I’m not sweating the euro for LES it’s horrible with it...12z synoptically shows 6-8” for WNY
  15. Thinksnow18
    Buffalo and far WNY ATM look like the sweet spot 30 hours out. I take. I also believe this will help with the LES for the metro area
  16. Thinksnow18
    I agree. This is still looking good for metro and north towns too. I’d be happy with a foot between both.
  17. Thinksnow18
    Thinking a hybrid winter storm warning for the synoptic and lake effect for metro simply because it’s the holiday
  18. Thinksnow18
    We’re almost 36 hours before rain changes to snow around here I’m thinking this track is probably becoming better sampled and confidence for the synoptic part should be growing in at least an advisory, however I wonder if they won’t combine the 2 for a WSW as it’s 9” in 24 hours I believe?
  19. Thinksnow18
    I have to trust the more hi res models at this point...they’re getting into their wheelhouse
  20. Thinksnow18
    12z GFS has about 6” of synoptic and the band over Buffalo and just south for the part of the run up to hour 72.
  21. Thinksnow18
    I still think the band forms further north than scheduled and then sweeps south after a few hours... Right now camps are 50/50
  22. Thinksnow18
    What makes little sense is the top panel shows the band right over the metro but the accumulation below the metro...
  23. Thinksnow18
    Well we still have the NAM I suppose
  24. Thinksnow18
    Hey another thing I’m real curious about, I just checked the indicies and every one of them is as good as I can remember and the forecast for each is to go stronger in each direction we need (PNA positive 2) NA negative 2 and AO possibly negative 3 or 4, yet we’re seeing alot of cutters...what would be causing this?
  25. Thinksnow18
    Yeah that caught me by surprise as well. I can visualize the warm air of an approaching storm where warm air aloft goes over cold air at the surface and has a tough time scouring it out but I don’t recall too many instances after a front.
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