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Thinksnow18

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  1. Thinksnow18
    I guess that’s what I was looking at as well. The globals, which admittedly suck at LES, the GFS shows the potential longer on the Friday Saturday timeframe than the Euro which would bring in more of a synoptic event next Sunday.
  2. Thinksnow18
    It appears to me this first event off Erie will be moderate (in lake effect parameters) and will affect metro north towns and the second more impactful event next week is a south towns special.
  3. Thinksnow18
    I’m beginning to wonder about the westward extension of that band over central NY. I think the west of there might bust low.
  4. Thinksnow18
    Are you in that donut hole south of Watertown? If so...dude...
  5. Thinksnow18
    I think it was Vortex yesterday that said “you can thank the SSW for that”
  6. Thinksnow18
    Yup we overachieved in the north towns
  7. Thinksnow18
    I think they’re HEAVILY under doing the whole Lake Ontario south shore...I got more snow today than was anywhere near modeled, and no 2” is nothing but it was supposed to be zero, so I’m saying a 5” total by Wednesday morning. That’s easily within reach
  8. Thinksnow18
    I think these models need to be reevaluated and have some serious dollars put into a one model supercomputer. The snow to our west looks decent over Lake Erie and northern Ohio WAS MODELED NOWHERE! the snow over WNY, albeit light, was modeled nowhere...now they’re STILL not even admit their error
  9. Thinksnow18
    Yeah I’m starting to think there’s an inverted trough back over the Niagara frontier. That LP from yesterday that hit the Midwest has decayed over our area and could be a conveyer for moisture back further west.
  10. Thinksnow18
    Still snowing here in Williamsville...amazing
  11. Thinksnow18
    BW I think it’s our time...the NWS text just stated the same thing for Friday and Friday night on a cold, SW wind bringing localized accumulating snows...it then gets even MORE interesting after Monday next week...
  12. Thinksnow18
    I can promise you that 8.1” at KBUF is about 2x’s too low
  13. Thinksnow18
    So...hours 150 to 180 look to be a little interesting on the euro...
  14. Thinksnow18
    Well your KBUF one is gonna bust low as I’m already at 1.8” for the day and the real show is tomorrow into Wednesday
  15. Thinksnow18
    This storm is modeling itself
  16. Thinksnow18
    Yep. And I know he a bit off on his ideas, but, Cohen says another event took place yesterday over he Arctic, thus could be our future for the next 4-6 weeks
  17. Thinksnow18
    Yes it was. I guess I’m just thinking if the amount of snow and almost wall to wall cold. I think I heard Mike Cejka on 4 this morning say high temps in the single digits early next week? That’s legit finally
  18. Thinksnow18
    This looks to MAYBE be a 2015 redux? That was an epic month where I believe KBUF reported 40” of snow and in March 1st would’ve sworn it was January 1st
  19. Thinksnow18
    So short term AND long term modeling sucks allegedly...all we heard from the late fall was how we were in line for a cold December and early January before things flip and we torch late January and February...thus is a complete 180 of what’s exactly happening as now February, per the CPC through February 26th, is expected to be colder than normal. Incredible how much guesswork goes into this profession as it seems Mother Nature is beginning to widen the gap in forecasting.
  20. Thinksnow18
    This one
  21. Thinksnow18
    One of our posters showed the low in radar loop an hour or so ago, per that NAM 3k run the low is too far south and east of where the LP is actually at currently. I think this is going to be the “which model was closest “ to what actually occurred type of deal
  22. Thinksnow18
    Toss...snow is all the way up to Lake Ontario
  23. Thinksnow18
    Fact. The GFS and the King don’t even show snow over upstate this morning on their last runs...and it’s while happening!
  24. Thinksnow18
    Good point. I’ve never been through a winter where all the models have been somewhat correct. It used to be the GFS and the Euro would come in and correct everything and all would be tight in the world, but beginning last year things have changed for the worse. Model scores are probably terrible
  25. Thinksnow18
    Flake size has increased a bit in the past 30 minutes. Snowfall rate about the same light to occasionally moderate. Have just measured 1” of snow and still moderate snow coming down...crazy how I’m able to measure virtual snowfall, I mean if it’s not on the models it can’t happen, right?
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