StormChazer

Oh, almost forgot the ice totals.

This is at 6:00AM Thursday and still snowing.

Hr 84 of the RDPS So expect the 00Z Canadian to look more like the 12Z Euro than the 18Z GFS. But like Mo said above, don't get so fixated on the run to run model outputs. Save that for once we are within 48 hours of the main event, that's when we will start to see the real picture in the atmosphere, to determined precip types. And if I'm being totally honest, when it comes to a mixed bag like this, sometimes, it comes down to real time reports before you truly know what your dominant precip type is going to be. Don't forget, with a storm like this, if you change over to snow an hour or 2 earlier than the models predict, BOOM, you get a dumping.

The last hour of the NAM.

Only major disagreement I see in the models, at this point, is the debate of an ice storm for DFW. Here are the 10:1 snow ratios for the 3 major models. Other than the Canadian(which the run before looked similar to these), which is toned down some this run, they look strikingly similar. Euro GFS Canadian

A definite shift north on the 12Z Euro. The 6Z was right on the trend.

Tulsa NWS

This is as far out at the 6Z goes, but you can clearly see where the intense band of snow is setting up. I can run the 06Z Euro CONTROL run out further, which shows you where that heavy snow sets up. Again, you can’t trust the 06Z and 18Z runs of the euro as much as their 12Z and 0Z counterparts, as they use outdated upper air data, but they can still sniff out a trend sometimes.

I didn’t love the 00Z run of the euro last night. However, the 06Z euro shows a notable shift back to the north again. So we’ll see if the 12Z follows suit.

I was gonna say to each his own. Sleet can be pretty fun when you get a couple inches of it. Freezing rain however, not so much.

This has been some impressive model agreement across the board…and for a while now.

Hour 90 of the 18Z Euro for what it’s worth.

Here is the 18Z GFS.

I know we can't get fixated on the numbers.....but the trend with all the models is that this has the potential to be an EXTREMELY impactful winter storm with cold air behind it. Do you know what 4-5 inches of sleet does to a city when it takes 3-4 days to melt? I lived in DFW in 2013 during the "Cobblestone Ice' event. It dropped 5 inches of sleet on us....the roads become a virtual ice skating rink the first day. But then, as cars drive on it, they naturally melt "potholes" into the thick sheet of sleet, and then refreezes, which causes your car to slide in and out of these bumps and holes, making driving quite literally impossible, no matter the car. Now that I'm done overhyping this and acting like it's the end of the world. Let's come back down to reality. That was an insanely rare event, and the models have so much trouble with the thickness of cold air, that this could(hopefully) just be a quick transition to snow from some freezing rain and sleet. But we have to take the trends seriously, it's only 4 days out now. Weenie rant over.

Well I’m in between the high totals of the GFS and the EURO, so if they can meet in the middle I’m set.

Full blown winter storm. 4 inches of sleet followed by super cold temps? Roads would be impassable for days.

GFS is thrashing Tulsa with an ice storm.

This is as far out as it goes.

All Good trends overnight with the three major players. Ice storm is definitely looming over the area. North Texas gets hammered as well. Time to see what the afternoon runs show!

I'm not sure...These systems that pull pacific moisture in from the SW are harder to predict due to the sparse sampling system in place down there.. By the time we can sample it, it's already on our doorstep. But maybe someone with more knowledge than me can enlighten us!

I don't believe there is one. You have to look at the soundings to extrapolate the precip type from there.

TSA on next week. "Deep cyclonic flow is expected to develop over the western 2/3rds of the CONUS toward the middle of next week. Another arctic air invasion is expected as this occurs as surface high pressure, with origins near the Yukon and Northwest Territory, comes clear down into the northern CONUS. The concomitant arctic front will likely precede the passage of the upper wave axis, leading to a plethora of potential issues. Along/ahead of the front, some data is painting an axis of locally heavy rainfall which could be over far eastern OK into western AR or just slightly to the east. Then, as the cold air spills south with the front, a wintry mix is expected with ice, sleet and snow accums possible. The GFS remains on the drier side overall regarding the amount of precip back in the cold air vs the ECMWF. Thus, the details are likely to change and will continue to be refined in the coming days. Stay tuned." Lacy

The actual Euro run, just to come down to earth.