StormChazer

Euro looks different from previous run, but still outputs a similar solution. Main differences being that the storm is slower by about 6 hours and totals aren't as high in SW MO and central and NW AR. Also Western OK really gets in on the action. Either way, doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the consensus that is developing. A broad area of precip will move over the area and produce good snow thanks to high ratios. I know we will still wiggle around north and south between now and Sunday, but I feel like this is more or less our solution with some massaging to do. I don't see the snow being pulled out from under our feet with this type of setup.

A delightful 12Z Canadian run as well... Edit: Canadian and GFS ensembles both coming in wetter.

Here is the 06Z Euro ensembles. Here was the 12Z Euro ensembles for reference.

For what it’s worth, the 06Z Euro ensemble trended much wetter than the 0Z. So it increased amounts. I’ll post a map when I’m in front of my computer.

Another meaningful shift on the GFS bringing it more in line with the euro and Canadian. 7-11 inches for most of us.

Canadian with a nice nudge east and increased amounts. The GFS also has moved east some and increased amounts.

Here is the 50 member avg for the Euro(non Kuchera amounts) for Sun/Mon.

Euro keeps Sunday/Monday event alive and well.(With a nasty ice storm in DFW) The system doesn't dig as much as the 0Z run, but it doesn't make much of a difference in the output. Slow moving on this run, so it's nearly 24 hours of snow, in 10 degrees the entire time. Almost everyone here gets a around a foot(NW AR and SW MO need to take off 3-5 inches from this since it is including Friday's storm.

Beginning to see a trend for Friday's storm. Seems like there might be enough lift and moisture available on the back end of the storm to give us a couple inches, maybe more. Canadian GFS 6Z Euro

Woke up to maybe a 1/4-1/2 of snow up here in Owasso. Considering I wrote the storm off a few days ago, it’s a pleasant sight to wake up to. Lots of wrecks occurring in Tulsa as we speak from slick roads.

GFS and Canadian trending slower which brings our chances up on Friday.

Meant to post it earlier, here is the storm track difference in the 12z Euro and 18Z Euro. 12Z 18Z

FWIW, the 18Z Euro is a little slower with Friday’s storm than on the 12z. But it doesn’t go out far enough to see the output. Curious if the 12z follows suit. Would love to get a surprise inch of snow in Tulsa tomorrow morning.

Yeah, those are some high ratios. Not sure what the math is, but I’d say 15-20:1?

I’m sad. But I’ll never learn. ONTO THE NEXT ONE! SUN-TUES next week.

Euro out here breaking hearts. I’ll post some member data when it comes out to see what the story is. The Canadian actually did inch more toward the GFS. Not drastically, but it did.

Didn’t love last night’s Euro. But the gfs didn’t budge this morning. Sticking to its guns.

FWIW. The Canadian ensembles don’t agree much with the actual run. I can’t post at the moment, but the original run shows nothing, up to a dusting for most of our forum area. The ensembles show about 2.5 inches for all of us. Which, for an ensemble average, 5 days out, is pretty decent. So I’m going the Canadian goes south again with plenty of energy. Staying up for the euro but I’m tired haha.

GFS.....I don't buy the ice though, it mitigates the snow output and still dumps prolific amounts.

Tuttle had a pretty solid analysis today. It’s essentially the UKMET, GFS, ICON & Climate models vs the Canadian and Euro for Friday. The next 24 hours should really start to develop some sort of trend I think.

Euro combined with the Canadian run are reminding me that nothing is set in stone(even though I already knew that lol). Still decent snow on this run from the euro if you check the kuchera(will be 14 degrees and snowing in Tulsa). 6-9 inches in Tulsa.

YES! THIS!! Someone says, “oh my app says it’s going to snow in a few days”. Meanwhile, you’ve obsessed run after run for the last 5 days in said storm and know the latest and greatest, but because their app says so, you don’t really know that much more than them. My pet peeve has always been the nay sayers…you tell them there’s a good chance of snow, with your hours of researching, and they just say, “it’s not going to snow, it’s been too warm.” And then they just accept it as fact. Makes me want to scream.

I physically can’t help myself. No matter how many times I’m let down, I’m like an addict needing their next fix. Because eventually it’ll pan out, and that feeling of hype and it coming to fruition will be unmatched. That being said, the GFS is our champion this afternoon. The Canadian is out to lunch.

Just not looking good for the Monday storm. All models trending to the north. Latest NAM continues this trend. just a couple hours away from having the output on the 12x runs for Friday. Very interested to see those.

I don’t have much expectations for this Mon/Tues storm, my eyes are entirely fixed on Friday. As a resident of NE OK, I’d love for just a slight nudge southward on this track. Last night they nudged north, so hopefully the noon runs can move south by…25, 50 miles. Seems like every system so far this winter has just grazed us to the north. I think she could really be the one, mom.