StormChazer

I feel like I shouldn't even bother looking at the models until we are 4 days out right now, they just are all over the place with no consistency. Hopefully we can start getting some run to run consistency and multiple models agreeing on the same thing.

Obviously we can only take away some broad generalizations this far out, but colder and possibly a favorable pattern for storms around the last couple weeks in December is the best you can ask for at this stage of the game.

I'll take the last 60 hours of the 12Z GFS please.

Was unlucky last night here in the Owasso/Collinsville area. Broken Arrow picked up close to half an inch, but nothing but rain here in Owasso. Odd to think I'd need to drive south to encounter the snow, not north!

NAM has trended snowier the past few runs. Gives NW AR a nice 3-4 inches. All depends on where those bands set up as the system moves overhead, hard to predict those.

Yes please.

I mean give credit where credit is due. I know this path susequently moved around after this, but this was spot on right here.

Honestly, the very first advisory they issued was really.....spot on..like, almost to the exact point of landfall.

Even has an "I" in the eye...

Why should someone else have to risk their lives to save you if you get swept away by your stupidity? You deserve whatever consequences come from those actions, that's all I'm going to say.

I have some in laws in Tampa, and back when they were in it's sight, they said, "I think we are prepared, so we will ride it out, if not we will drive inland and find a hotel". People just don't get that by the time you've gauged that it's getting too bad to stay, it's even worse on the roads. Anyways, to stay on topic and not banter too much, you can see the eye on IR really opening up in the last hour, not great timing. Cat 5 or not, it doesn't matter at this point in terms of actual damage, it's past the point of no return now.

I started out in Enid, and blasted south to catch this supercell in Dover, OK before it was absorbed into the line. Then went south to the storm SW of OKC. Follow it from Blanchard to Purcell before giving up on it and going back home to Tulsa. I guess if I stayed with it another 45 min I could have caught the Seminole tornado, but hindsight is 20/20.

I'll be driving out toward Enid from Tulsa here in about an hour and a half.

Latest run of the HRRR gives us a lone supercell to watch for in OK. I'm considering leaving Tulsa to wait around Pauls Valley to see if anything fires.

Wow! My wife had that earlier out in far east OK. HUGE sleet pellets.

Winter Storm Watch for entire Tulsa CWA. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed wintry precipitation possible. Total sleet and snow accumulations of up to around one inch and ice accumulations of around one half of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas. * WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At least two rounds of wintry precipitation are expected Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. Sleet and freezing rain are expected to be the most impactful precipitation types with light snow also possible in some area

NAM starting to come into range. Obviously there’s no dispute here on a winter storm, more just the location and intensity. Because this is looking like a prolonged event, I think the NAM is going to show us some insanely high precip amounts(not like that’s a shock). But will tone it down. At the same time I expect some(not all) of the global models to uptick their amounts some.

“Confidence is high in troughing developing through the western CONUS early next week and also with the aforementioned seasonably strong cold front. Additionally, the corridor of deep moisture aligned along the frontal zone is forecast to largely remain in place and possibly increase in magnitude. A likely scenario is one or more lead shortwave troughs preceding the primary trough axis ahead of its ejection across the central CONUS mid to late week. The combination of multiple periods of lift tapping deep moisture and lifting it atop a cold airmass is likely to lead to a wintry mix across the region Wednesday through Thursday. Additionally, the pattern is typical for a strong warm layer to develop atop the cold pool leading to all precip types as precip expands northward. Signals in deterministic data at this range also support impressive precip rates with convective elements already being modeled will north into the cold air. The potential for impactful snow, sleet, and ice accumulation continues to increase. Widely varying and frequently updated modeled winter weather totals will likely be shown over the coming days. Remember to identify a trusted source of weather information to monitor forecast trends.

TSA on next week. "The upper pattern toward the middle to latter part of the week could bring a messy winter weather episode to the region. Large positive tilt upper trough in the West allows a more shallow arctic airmass to ooze south down the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. Lift and moisture then overrun this cold air Wednesday into Thursday, with some decent ice and sleet possible depending on where the surface freezing line lies and the thermal profile shakes out aloft. The western trough then ejects into the Plains Thursday with a mixed bag of precip types changing to all snow and possibly heavy somewhere. Stay tuned as these details will continue to be refined in the coming days. There is potential for this storm to be pretty impactful for the latter half of next week."

Yeah, HRRR keeps creeping south giving me more and more sleet here north of Tulsa tomorrow morning, will be interesting to see what happens. Some of those heavier storms could throw sleet down before it’s even freezing, something to watch. As for the GFS next week. Sheesh!

Looking past tonight/tomorrow morning's event, TSA had this to say. "The forecast could turn pretty messy winter weather wise for the middle to latter part of next week. Large positive tilt upper trough in the West allows a more shallow arctic airmass to ooze south down the Plains like spilled milk, while lift increases over the top in a sw flow warm advection regime ahead of ejecting trough. This could spell trouble, but these details will continue to be refined in the coming days." Translation, we have ourselves a potential setup for an ice storm later next week. The storm in question. GFS Canadian Euro Still a ways out, but there is a consensus in the models regarding a favorable setup for our area.

Enjoy it! I’ll take an inch of mood flakes here in Tulsa If we can manage!

4.5 inches here in Owasso, but we have had this heavy band of snow over us now and I’m thinking we are going to pick up another 3 between the last couple hours and the next 1-2. It’s coming down hard.

Thought my fun was over as we didn’t get any snow all day today, but then couple hours ago it started snowing and pretty big flakes too! Probably have added another inch or so, and I’m thinking the way it’s rotating, we get this last band for another inch.

Lots of drifting here in Owasso.