StormChazer

HRRR just went south like JoMo said. Interestingly, this is also with a few hours of sleet and freezing rain in the morning before the full transition to snow around 1:00PM. This run is in the same camp as the Canadian and the ICON favoring the heavy band to move south. So currently we have NAM & EURO VS ICON, Canadian & HRRR. With the GFS somewhere in between.

Here is our 12Z Euro. Definitely a southern shifts on the beefier amounts, which is great.

I will say, that is looking like blizzard criteria on the GFS around 3:00PM in Tulsa and points north.

The NAM has been downright disrespectful with this storm. Other than being all over the place, it really exaggerates the have and have-nots. If you aren't in that heavy band, it's fairly lackluster. I'll continue to throw it out until we get within the range of the hourly HRRR and then see what we are looking at.

12Z GFS There's still 2 camps right now on the REALLY heavy band. A few have it here like GFS, and a few have it go from Tulsa to Fayetteville. There's 2 distinct cutoffs. The heavy band to the moderate band and then the moderate to practically nothing. I'm inclined to side with the GFS and Euro(much to my dismay) which keeps the really heavy band just to our north, as opposed to the Candian and ICON which slams us. I'll eagerly await the noon Euro. At the end of the day, models can only do so much. Trying to figure out where the heavy band will set up down to the very mile marker, just isn't reasonable. 20 miles is the difference between 5 inches and 11 on here, and that's impossible to predict.

12Z RDPS Canadian(Kuchera) 12Z ICON(10:1) 12Z NAM(Kuchera) 12Z HRRR

Here are what all the 0Z runs give downtown Tulsa in Kuchera amounts... GFS: 8.0 Inches Canadian: 11 inches ICON: 15 inches EURO: 5 inches (The 18Z run was also 5 inches). Suffice it to say, other than the EURO and the high res NAM, everything else is looking great.

Yeah but I’m not buying that huge area of freezing rain with a nearly stationary boundary. NAM is starting to come in and already looking like that sleet line is further south. That’s good news!

06Z Euro.

GFS doesn't give Tulsa sleet from 9AM to 5PM this run. All snow. Great trend. Now if only that really heavy band could sink south by about ~30 miles.

ICON RDPS

RDPS is obliterating Tulsa.

This is really the battle going on for snow totals. Massive difference at noon Tuesday. The Euro is 11 degrees colder than the NAM. 2 days out from now, that's a pretty large discrepancy. The GFS sides with the NAM temps, the Canadian and ICON side with the EURO. I personally think when the Canadian and Euro are in agreement, it tends to be the outcome. I said it the other day, and I'll eat crowe if I'm wrong. But I think this airmass of pure arctic air is so strong at the various heights that it will keep sleet and Freezing rain well south of Tulsa. I think it'll be mostly snow the entire time and Tulsa and points north get 6-12. Just my weenie two cents.

Euro

Nice waking up to a winter storm watch. ”3-8 inches”. I guess that narrows it down huh?

Posting all the 0Z runs to get a consensus. Canadian, 14 inches at my house, yes, please. ICON Euro GFS

Quick guess would say we got about an inch here in Owasso. Very pretty & quiet. Visibility definitely went down.

I wouldn't take too much stock in the long range NAM that far out. Point in case, here is the 18Z run. Already moving those amounts south and higher.

Curious to see how far TUL takes their watches. Obviously far NE OK will get a watch, but do they include Tulsa, Rogers, etc?

I saw that. Seems he is leaning in favor of the GFS and believes the sleet will go pretty far north. I'm no met, but I know the Euro has been very consistent, so I'm siding with it(plus I like it more for me lol.). He also made it clear he's being conservative with his amounts in general across the board and expects to go up, so that's great for everyone here. Still....can't lock this in yet. EVERYTHING has to go PERFECT to get some of these high totals in this part of the country. One thing is off and it falls apart, so I'm still holding my breath for the next 24 hours.

Here is all 50 runs of the Euro averaged together. And this is based on a 10:1 ratio. Greater than 3 inches of snow(again, 10:1)

A definite southern shift on the Euro. Higher snow totals moved south in addition to moving the sleet and frz rain to the south as well.

Canadian 06Z Euro.

Not sure what to say....30 inches of snow???? No way that verifies but even if it's half of that. Sleet and freezing rain completely eats the snow totals in Tulsa & NW AR or else we'd be in the 6-10 range.