StormChazer

If the Euro holds it's ground on the 12Z then I'll feel ok with this GFS run, bound to have fluctuations. If it backs off too, then I'll just go cry in a corner at work.

Here are my findings for the 00Z Euro run members. For S&G I ran the same deal on the 12Z afternoon run yesterday(see below). 00Z-12/10 0 3, 36,37,40,43,45,46,48, Total:8 <1 4*,9,12,13*,16,18,24,27,30*,32,34,35,39,49, Total:14 1-3 1,5,10,11,14,15*,23,26,29,38,41,42*,44*,50 Total:14 3+ 2,6,7,8,17,19,20,21,22,25,28,31,33,47 Total:14 * on edge of 3+ Here is the 21Z run from yesterday. 12Z-12/9/19 0 3,7,8,15,16,17,28,29,30,32,33,35,38,41,42,47,48,49 Total:18 <1 2,12,14,20,34,36,46,50 Total:8 1-3 1, 6,11,19,21,23,24,31,37,45, Total:10 3+ 4, 5,9,10,13,18,22,25,26,27,39,40,43,44, Total:14 As you can see, 10 members moved from a no-snow solution to snow, excited to see the noon run today.

Also this is the OP Euro run from last night(I was posting the controls earlier).

I'll do a breakdown of all 50 members here shortly.

It would appear the latest gfs joins in with a similar result.

Piggybacking off this to show the latest control. Trending more in our area.

00Z Euro Control Vs the latest 12Z run Control. Now we see if tonight continues the trend.

Friendly reminder that it's been 1,740 days since the Tulsa office issued a winter storm warning.

I saw that.....I think if something like that verified, I'd forgive the last 6 years of snow drought.

We shall watch this one with great interest.

Here is hour 258 QPF on the Euro, so it's showing something in that time frame as well.

That's how it tends to go. I gave up on over analyzing the Euro members until something more consistent and promising arises. BUT, I'd say looking over the next 2 weeks it seems like the cold air and moisture are there, all about timing.

12/5/19-00Z 0 1,4, 5, 6,16,17,20,25,27,29,30,32,36,37,43,45,48,50 TOTAL:18 <1 2,9,10,11,12,14,18,23,24,28,33,38,42,44,46 TOTAL:15 1-3 7,8,13,21,26,31,35,39,41 TOTAL:9 3+ 3,15,19,22,34,40,47,49 TOTAL:8

Oh my, the 06Z GFS decides to make us all happy happy snow deprived people.

Here's the noon update from today, definitely a large drop in significant snow potential. 0 3,4,8,10,13,15,16,18,19,20,21,28,29,34,35,36,37,38,39,41,45,48 TOTAL:22 <1 2,6,14,17,23,24,25,26,30,31,33,43,46,50 TOTAL:14 1-3 1,5,12,22,42,44,47 TOTAL:7 3+ 7,9,11,27,32,40,49 TOTAL:7

Ok, so I've decided to amend my parameters for the time being on my members analysis. This far out, it's silly to make Tulsa my pinpoint and not count a massive dumping of snow 60 miles away, so I'm going with a 100 mile radius of Tulsa, which roughly means the edge of that circumference hits OKC, Wichita, Fort Smith, Fayetteville and Joplin. So I'll be counting anything that falls in that area. Here are my results from the 00Z run last night. 0 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 17, 30, 31,36,38,40,41,47,48, TOTAL:14 <1 4, 6, 8, 12, 15, 20, 22, 23, 29,34,35,37,43,45,49,50 TOTAL:16 1-3 16, 21, 24, 25, 32,44, TOTAL:6 3+ 1, 2, 3, 7, 14, 18, 19,26,27,28, 33,39,42,46, TOTAL:14 My next go at the 12Z run in a bit can be directly compared to this as opposed to my last one which only took Tulsa into account. It does seem overall that the Euro backs off an even happening on the 13th and pushes it more to the 16th.

Because I'm bored and have nothing better to do, I figured I'd over analyze the members, and will do so with each run to see if we can discover an obvious trend. The numbers are for the TULSA Metro, so if you're reading this from central Arkansas, it's not necessarily going to be spot on. Here are my findings... 12/3/19-12Z 0 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 13, 18, 21,23, 24, 27, 29, 30, 31, 36, 37, 39, 41, 44, 46, 47, 48, 49 TOTAL:25 <1- 1, 8, 11, 14, 19, 25, 26, 32, 33, 34, 38, 40, 45, 50 TOTAL:14 1-3 2, 15, 17, 42 TOTAL:4 3+ 5, 16, 20, 22, 28, 35, 43, TOTAL:7

Latest Euro keeps a winter storm in our area in the 12th-13th time frame.

It's long range but we do have some agreement...for now.

ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE!

I need the models to give me something to drool over(even if it disappears 2 runs later), I need a fix!

Heavy sleet in downtown Tulsa.

Winter Weather Advisory just issued for Tulsa office area.

18Z GFS, more of the same.

We'll see what the Euro thinks shortly. Either way, COLLLDDDD incoming!!