StormChazer

I'm reviving this statistical analysis I did last season to highlight how insane the snow drought here in NE OK was for those 5 seasons, but have updated it to reflect the past few days. I took the total snowfall from every season in 5 year intervals dating back to 1950. 1950/1951 - 1954/1955- 48.3 in 1955/1956 - 1959/1960- 64 in 1960/1961 - 1964/1965- 32.4 in 1965/1966 - 1969/1970- 60.6 in 1970/1971 - 1974/1975- 37.6 in 1975/1976 - 1979/1980- 48.2 in 1980/1981 - 1984/1985- 34 in 1985/1986 - 1989/1990- 57.6 in 1990/1991 - 1994/1995- 41.7 in 1995/1996 - 1999/2000- 37.2 in 2000/2001 - 2004/2005- 55.1 in 2005/2006 - 2009/2010- 61 in 2010/2011 - 2014/2015- 52.4 in 2015/2016 - 2019/2020- 11.8 in 2020/2021- Present- 5.2 in In just a matter of 3 days, we had almost half as much snow as we did in the past 5 seasons combined! We average 45.85 inches every 5 seasons, so before the crazy snow drought, we were overperforming the previous 15 years! Now that we got the monkey off our back, I'm confident in a return to normal from here on out, but we shall see!

I'm reasonably happy right now with the Christmas forecast. We've got very cold air making it's way down and a storm system swinging through. By that logic, the "hard part" is out of the way. Now we just need some small adjustments to make snow on Christmas Eve/Christmas a reality.

It’s almost as if the 00Z GFS read my last post...

All I'm going to say about Christmas 10 days out is this.... Cold Air....CHECK Storm system coming through the plains...CHECK Now if we can just get that system to come south and slow up, we'd be in business. A man can dream about a white Christmas, but even some flurries would be mood setting.

This!! It's very pretty, nothing too heavy, but definitely not just "flurries". It's enough up here in Owasso to turn the melted patches light again, and the cars and roofs white again.

If I can't get a white Christmas, then give me a cold one!

Moving on... It's like a dream getting to talk about potential snow back to back like this. I could get used to it. Extended HRRR. Aside from the NAM3k, NE OK looks to get about 1-2(more as you go west). More of a central/western OK storm. I'm thinking OKC will get a nice bullseye of around 4 inches based on the other models. I'll take my 1-2 inches in Tulsa to mask today's melting.

I figured it out. I reached my limit Here. I think the the 3KNAM handled this pretty well in our area, and the GFS did a great job as well once it was a few days out. Euro was consistent as always.

Not sure why I can't attach the image file, but looks like Tulsa got 5.5 inches. The drought is over!!

You spoke it into existence! Better late than never!

Already got around 2-3 inches here in Owasso.

These flakes are huge and coming down hard! Can’t imagine they don’t add Tulsa to the Winter Storm Warning with their band setting up over the metro.

It was a quick transition, it's all snow now.

It has started to sleet/snow here in North Owasso/South Collinsville.

I know in this scenario it doesn't need to be 32 to snow, but even still, it's already 32 in Skiatook just 10-15 min north of Tulsa. Edit: And now Tulsa is down to 34.

I think they’ll fill the whole thing in in the next few hours.

Yeah, I mean, I trust a pro's opinions over my model obsessing. But even still, that seems just incredibly conservative. I'm sure it'll update. My guess is they say 3 inches, and stop there, if Tulsa gets just 1 or 2, not that far off the mark, and same goes for 4 or 5.

Would love to see some thunder snow here in Tulsa. I've only experienced it a couple times back when I lived in Dallas, and it is such a cool experience!

I mean I know ground temps play a factor, but if you get unloaded with 6-8 inches in a short amount of time, I feel like you only lose 1 or 2 before the cold night sets in.

HRRR really looking good for Tulsa area.

Yup, Mike Collier had that as his prediction here in Tulsa. Talk about a range haha.

I think all the local Mets are playing this really really safe. After 7 years of bust after bust after bust, they’re just not going to jump with confidence on this stuff. They’d rather be surprised than get people’s hopes up.

Really crossing my fingers on this. Tulsa is beyond due.

0Z 12K NAM holding steady with its large amounts.

One thing at a time, I know. But all three, Euro, GFS, and Canadian are all dropping another few inches on Tuesday. GFS Euro Canadian