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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    this is probably as good as it will get - models have been more or less consistent for several runs
  2. NEG NAO
    Interpret this anyway you want too.....
  3. NEG NAO
    question now is once the system gets onshore in the west in a couple of days if better sampling of it for the models to digest will change the outcome ?- right now looks like a minor event in the NYC Metro for early next week according to the 0Z model runs - no sense in even speculating on the later next week potential event yet IMO......all we know for sure is below normal temps arrive this weekend for an extended period of time....
  4. NEG NAO
    Yikes I have been posting in the wrong thread - sorry about that !
  5. NEG NAO
    like i said earlier we are not even sure all that confluence is being modeled correctly and have to wait till the system out in the pacific comes onshore so more accurate data is made available for the models to get a better handle on this situation This post should be in the storm thread - sorry folks !
  6. NEG NAO
    we won't get a handle on next week until the 6th storm comes onshore in a few days out west models can sample that one more accurately
  7. NEG NAO
    No suppression later next week according to 18Z GFS
  8. NEG NAO
    EPS is not fine BUT we are not even sure if the models are measuring the confluence correctly could easily ease up a bit before showtime...allowing a shift north in the precip field
  9. NEG NAO
    then hope the Ukie and Icon are correct
  10. NEG NAO
    the avg model error at this range is greater then 50 miles
  11. NEG NAO
    Icon also more north then the GFS-Canadian and Euro
  12. NEG NAO
    0Z Euro has a second LP late next week which originated in the GOM crawls up the coast - who knows if this is even real
  13. NEG NAO
    OZ EURO now has mid-Atlantic Snowstorm south of us which might work in our favor since who wants to be in the bulleye 7 days out ?? and these things usually trend north in time MAYBE !
  14. NEG NAO
    The 0Z GFS moved towards previous Canadian solutions of the past couple of days - not a flake here throughout...showing the confusion in the modeling run to run
  15. NEG NAO
    yes seems like some models moving towards 12Z Euro solution - waiting to see if 0Z Euro is similar to 12Z and last nights 0Z --- moving into medium range forecasting range close to 7 days out........
  16. NEG NAO
    Walt started a new thread for next weeks potential
  17. NEG NAO
    Seems like the 0Z Canadian is moving towards the 12Z Euro solution but still 7 plus days out and the timing is different - waiting for the 0Z Euro which has had similar runs 2 cycles in a row
  18. NEG NAO
    whats so suppressed about a 988 LP off the Delmarva ?
  19. NEG NAO
    A 988 on the coast works and 2 runs in a row - don't worry about amounts yet....
  20. NEG NAO
    Clown Map - doesn't make sense with the wide variations region wide with all the cold air in place post the Canadian and the Euro when it comes out and compare
  21. NEG NAO
    this is all too complicated for any model this far out - so solutions are wrong IMO
  22. NEG NAO
    Only runs through 168 doesn't tell us much only that the energy is south similar to the Canadian which then shears out past 168
  23. NEG NAO
    First of all being so far out in time we have no idea if these solutions so far today are even close to correct. Remember last night when the 0Z Euro gave us a Major Snowstorm + - wait for the Euro solution..........and then their ensembles - IMO the Canadian and GFS develop the systems in 2 different areas far apart out west shows the difference in opinions and probably wrong
  24. NEG NAO
  25. NEG NAO
    The second storm later next week goes OTS
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