NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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First of all - Ocean County NJ should be in the Philadelphia region - and the farther north and west counties in NY and PA should be included in a new North and West Forum IMO. Variations in the weather conditions are too great from south to north and west in that map to be included in one forum (especially during the winter months)............But like I said before we have had this discussion previously and it is what it is.......OR we can set up the forums similar to the NWS does - Upton and Mount Holly - never could understand that concept...........
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Would rather have snow the last week of December rather then the first week - many times when it has snowed early in the month it warms up towards the end of the month and its mild with no snow on the ground Christmas week .........last year was considered to be a "White Christmas" believe it or not with the little snow that was on the ground in most areas of the immediate metro...........This year the falling SOI and the fading LaNina supported by MJO in phase 8 should activate the southern jet BUT all the players on the field have to align just right to produce a snowstorm here........also another Strat warming event is going to unfold the second half of the month so this pattern should extend well into January.............
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Belleayre should be considered to be Upstate NY not NYC Metro - I know we have had this discussion before - most of NYC metro doesn't look like mid-winter with most of us not seeing a flake yet........
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Its only December 4th - our break will come soon enough - first chance early next week- for some reason here in north middlesex county nj they are spraying the roads with that liquid brine crap or whatever you call it again - never can be too careful I guess those water temps are causing the lower level to still produce liquid even with the upper levels cold enough for frozen close to the coast
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as soon as the clouds start rolling in later the temps will stop falling and might even rise a couple of degrees towards morning.
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when is the weekend storm thread going to start ? LOL
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I would just stress in the headline the model guidance is not reliable especially past a certain number of hours - if that is the case - so folks won't get false hope - some storms there is no doubt we will end up with snowstorm region wide but these borderline situations have high bust potential regarding precip type especially- I still think there will be busts in the forecast for tomorrow one way or the other in certain areas yet to be determined. AI overview Meteorology is called an "inexact science" because the Earth's atmosphere is a massive, complex system that is impossible to measure with complete accuracy, and is governed by principles of chaos theory, making long-term, precise prediction impossible. While the underlying physics and math are precise, the application to predicting weather is limited by factors like incomplete initial data, the sheer scale of the atmosphere, and the amplification of tiny errors over time, a concept known as the "Butterfly Effect". -
problem with indirect sun this time of the year is the very low sun angle-and whats with this area of snow this morning moving through eastern PA into NJ ? Will Tuesday mornings radar look similar to this mornings but surface temps lower Tuesday ?
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Time is still on our side 2 days still till showtime...........I have been saying all along we have to wait till events unfold after that Great Lakes LP passes and how fast the HP sets up shop in southeast Canada and if it decides to stay put for awhile and how fast like you just mentioned the LP develops and moves in from the south its all in the timing
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Its interesting that most people are dismissing the Euro and going with the worst models GFS-NAM Etc. The Euro snowfall map looks serious enough for the immediate metro to me for so early in the season . Oh Well !
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that was an easier forecast because the arctic air was already established in place...........
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what if the Canadian shifts back to its OZ accumulating snow solution ? And Euro shifts south ? there has been a wide range of differing model solutions in the last 24 hours from the amped GFS and Nam brings liquid all the way up to Albany and the Canadians 2 - 4 inches North Jersey
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Models are confused right now to say the least - expect further changes in future runs ...........
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now watch the next Euro's suite only bring the precip as far north as southern NY state - something is seriously wrong with some of these models..........is it GIGO (Garbage In/Garbage Out)??
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18Z Nam is saying way north of Yonkers till it snows - closer to Albany
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interesting where does the data input come from for the Euro model ? The output is much different then GFS and Canadian
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12Z Canadian amped up again - discussion here has been the GFS is too wound up and the Canadian and Euro have been trending towards it and then backing off then flip floping - like to know which data ingested into the models or missing on certain runs is causing this
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Sounds like the type of discussions and articles Paul Dorian of Arcfield Weather would discuss on his site........
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12Z NAM amped hard to believe this is correct if you are saying the GFS is too amped
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anyone who wants 2-4 or 3 -5 in the immediate metro away from any immediate coastal locations should hope for a weaker solution - the water temps are still too warm for an amped up solution which brings in that warmer air- we won't know for sure how this is going to play out until that Great Lakes low passes and HP moves into southeast Canada and if it is allowed to leave with the flow or stays put just long enough to provide cold enough air and keep the storm off the coast
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This is what I mean by 25 -50 mile adjustment 12Z Euro has snow accumulations now down into central NJ and part of Ocean/Burlington County NJ
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I wouldn't change the thread title till Sunday PM if needed - IMO this setup is not set in stone as 25 -50 miles either way makes a big difference..along with the position of the HP and how the storm cutting through the Great Lakes this weekend adjusts the location of the key players on the field....
