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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    Higher snow ratios with this storm also ?? Thoughts anyone ?
  2. NEG NAO
    18Z run - lets see what happens at 0Z
  3. NEG NAO
    its obvious the models are completely confused right now with no idea how to go up against the confluence ..........once we get to the weekend they will fiqure it out with better data input
  4. NEG NAO
    Take a look at the 18Z GFS OP Crazy storm track bouncing around all over the place down south - complete nonsense...
  5. NEG NAO
    Thanks I found this viewer from Penn State that runs the NBM through 120 hours NBM Viewer
  6. NEG NAO
    I think Walt might have a list of the models that go into the NBM Solution ? Found this" National Blend of Models - MDL - Virtual Lab
  7. NEG NAO
    Euro doesn't make much sense over a 6 hour period - weakening and moving off the coast too fast - also the LP is slightly stronger then previous runs expanding the precip shield further north into the confluence - basisically IMO if this storm was stronger it would be able to battle the confluence better and more overrunning too
  8. NEG NAO
    Can't make this stuff up - nightmare scenario for us -lol
  9. NEG NAO
    when should the models start picking up on less confluence then first advertised ? Tomorrow , Friday Saturday Sunday ?
  10. NEG NAO
    TRue BUT how do you plan on reducing the confluence block ? Need a HP in southeast Canada not a LP.....
  11. NEG NAO
    this is probably as good as it will get - models have been more or less consistent for several runs
  12. NEG NAO
    Interpret this anyway you want too.....
  13. NEG NAO
    question now is once the system gets onshore in the west in a couple of days if better sampling of it for the models to digest will change the outcome ?- right now looks like a minor event in the NYC Metro for early next week according to the 0Z model runs - no sense in even speculating on the later next week potential event yet IMO......all we know for sure is below normal temps arrive this weekend for an extended period of time....
  14. NEG NAO
    Yikes I have been posting in the wrong thread - sorry about that !
  15. NEG NAO
    like i said earlier we are not even sure all that confluence is being modeled correctly and have to wait till the system out in the pacific comes onshore so more accurate data is made available for the models to get a better handle on this situation This post should be in the storm thread - sorry folks !
  16. NEG NAO
    we won't get a handle on next week until the 6th storm comes onshore in a few days out west models can sample that one more accurately
  17. NEG NAO
    No suppression later next week according to 18Z GFS
  18. NEG NAO
    EPS is not fine BUT we are not even sure if the models are measuring the confluence correctly could easily ease up a bit before showtime...allowing a shift north in the precip field
  19. NEG NAO
    then hope the Ukie and Icon are correct
  20. NEG NAO
    the avg model error at this range is greater then 50 miles
  21. NEG NAO
    Icon also more north then the GFS-Canadian and Euro
  22. NEG NAO
    0Z Euro has a second LP late next week which originated in the GOM crawls up the coast - who knows if this is even real
  23. NEG NAO
    OZ EURO now has mid-Atlantic Snowstorm south of us which might work in our favor since who wants to be in the bulleye 7 days out ?? and these things usually trend north in time MAYBE !
  24. NEG NAO
    The 0Z GFS moved towards previous Canadian solutions of the past couple of days - not a flake here throughout...showing the confusion in the modeling run to run
  25. NEG NAO
    yes seems like some models moving towards 12Z Euro solution - waiting to see if 0Z Euro is similar to 12Z and last nights 0Z --- moving into medium range forecasting range close to 7 days out........
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