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PositiveEPOEnjoyer

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Everything posted by PositiveEPOEnjoyer

  1. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    Still rather skeptical of an actual major SSW event occurring. I know the GFS and its ensembles have been hinting at one, but it hasn't really been that consistent.
  2. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    Would be surprised if temps only maxed out in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Christmas Day across the Quad Cities based on latest model trends, but we’ll see.
  3. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    pretty strong signal on the long-range GFS for a potential storm around the new year timeframe. Been doing it for several runs now, lots of snow with it too.
  4. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    Lol, a PV lobe that brings us down to merely average. That's actually pretty sad in a way
  5. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    I can def see this December surpassing both 1881 and 2015 for warmth actually, depending on the location.
  6. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    lol no
  7. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    funny thing is if it weren’t for that short-lived albeit severe cold snap, last Dec would’ve finished comfortably above average temp wise.
  8. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    Feel like that has to be some kind of record. Seems very impressive.
  9. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    the CFS has a favorable pattern for a January 2006 redux
  10. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    wouldn’t be surprised to see some March 2012-esque departures by the end of the month for the extreme northern parts of the sub given how warm it’s been and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, and also due to the fact that there’s quite literally no cold air on this side of the globe.
  11. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    All deterministic models are shit for the most part. GraphCast had a much better handle on the overall large-scale pattern for this timeframe.
  12. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    HRRR has MKE barely tagging 50 on that day, which seems hard to believe. Think the model has a severe cold bias these days, which is strange considering it had performed fairly well in the past.
  13. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    April maybe, but 2020-2022 all featured warm Marches, so not a bad run.
  14. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    I don’t think we see a significant, long-lasting pattern change to colder occur this month due to MJO influence, but we’ll see.
  15. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    lots of folks in denial for some reason.
  16. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    yeah, I’m def seeing zero evidence whatsoever for a cold Dec. GEFS looked quite toasty, especially come second week of Dec
  17. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    hmmm, doesn’t look like this month will be as hot as previously thought. The end of the 12z OP GFS run looked downright chilly for parts of the sub.
  18. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    this weather is dogshit, can’t wait for the cooldown.
  19. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    super Nino potential + rapidly warming climate
  20. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    likely overdone, but this would easily result in widespread 100s across the region, especially when taking into consideration how dry it’s been and will continue to be. Idk why there’s such a big disagreement between the models tho as the GFS shows something completely different around this timeframe.
  21. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    yeah, because of Pinatubo
  22. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    endless 80s from here on out for me, I’ll take it.
  23. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    this has been one of the nicest Mays I can remember in my lifetime, could use a little more humidity tho.
  24. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    wouldn't call a +1.6 departure cold relative to average, but that's me.
  25. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    surprised the record for this date is only 87, would’ve guessed higher.
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