PositiveEPOEnjoyer

you can’t really ignore the MJO imo. phase 6 is quite a strong warm signal for this time of year even when taking into account the ENSO. don’t really care what that awful new AI model is showing at hour 336 or whatever.

MJO really doesn't support it, but we'll see.

at this point, I'll believe it when I see it. Same exact thing was supposed to occur last month and we all know how that turned out.

you can continue to shoot yourself in the foot. fine by me.

yeah, @Chicago Storm was right in saying that you should read more and post less.

I've come to learn that the OP GFS is just a god-awful model. I wouldn't really take whatever it's showing in the medium-long range seriously. Although to be fair, the other deterministic models are quite putrid too.

very disappointing, and also a bit surprising that ORD "only" topped out at 74 today.

I wouldn't bet on it. Besides the CFS being garbage, long range modeling has been way too cold this season, and has also had a tendency to overdo the extent of high-latitude blocking. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised if the overall warm pattern continues to strengthen as the month progresses (especially if we get a high amplitude MJO wave to traverse through phase 6). Our source region is rather iffy, and with a lack of meaningful snow cover throughout the CONUS combined with warm soil temps, things could get really out of hand.

I think KRFD is running a bit warm. Still impressive tho

I'm sure they can handle one coldish day before the next torch comes in shortly afterwards.

impressive

DCA: +4.7 NYC: +5.3 BOS: +5.5 ORD: +7.5 ATL: +2.0 IAH: +2.4 DEN: +2.5 PHX: -1.0 SEA: +0.7

The models (particularly the Euro/Eps) have done a horrendous job in handling the Pacific for a while now, so this is no surprise.

the GFS completely obliterates the PV as well.

I think the March 2012 heatwave was at least a 1 in 4000-year weather event based on the studies I’ve read on it.

You should work on keeping your temper under control, as I’ve done nothing to elicit such an emotional/defensive response out of you (my birth year has no relevance either). Anyway, the last few springs have finished on the warm side of average, featuring plenty of mild/warm days, so I’m not sure what the problem is.

Not trying to be a dick but you need to keep your expectations in check considering you live in Michigan.

wrong

Last spring finished above average…

My birthday’s also on the 11th, neat coincidence

lol

That dude is a fucking idiot lmao

last I checked, 55-32 = 23

interesting as Larry Cosgrove (along with some others) were hinting at the possibility of this March being very mild. Idk, just a bit skeptical of the cold March idea, but I guess we'll see. Probably doesn't mean much, but the super long range GEFS has a warm start to March as well.

2021 was a nice spring overall, wouldn't mind a repeat of that.