PositiveEPOEnjoyer

@raindancewx has been pretty spot on with his calls this winter. He had the right idea about the late Dec/early Jan warm-up, forecasted a cold Jan for the east, which verified well, and also stated a while back about the cold retrogressing hard to the west at some point later in the winter. Now virtually every model is showing that in the extended with a strong -PNA signal.

The AI GFS has 60s for Chicago as early as Feb 9. Probably overdone, but 50s aren’t out of the question. A lot of it hinges on the extent of the high latitude blocking

GFS ensembles are quite warm for the first week of March. Long ways out, but still interesting to see.

Honestly wouldn't rule that out at some point during the month, based on recent trends.

I’d love for that to happen tbh. Feels like it’s been a while since we’ve seen a true April torch. I just don’t think Feb 2026 will end up as cold as March 2015 relative to average. Philadelphia finished -4.5 in March 2015, just can’t see that happening this month as the warmer days will eventually outweigh the colder days imo.

I know you didn’t ask me, but personally I think NN overall for the Northeast as I believe the first week will be the coldest week relative to average before a warming trend commences afterward. I’m not saying record warmth necessarily, but perhaps a more subdued warmer than average pattern depending on how much blocking we see and other teleconnections, etc. My guess is the warmest anomalies end up being near the Plains this month.

Not necessarily, still too early to say imo.

That was the original line of thinking most had a few days ago before these new warmer trends, but now I’m not sure any region of the country ends up that cold relative to average compared to Dec and Jan. EPS is still pretty warm through the end of the run with a fairly strong -PNA signal, AI models are showing a similar pattern as well.

Idk about that. Seems to me as though it's shaping up to be a warm Feb nationally. Check tonight's model runs for example and tell me with a straight face we see such a large area of -5 to -7 departures by month's end. Hell the AI models are showing record warmth at times for the Midwest, almost like a hybrid of Feb 2017 and Feb 2024. Not saying it'll be that warm as those were legendary torch months, but I'm just not seeing a cold pattern; things are starting to change in the Pacific. I know these sudden warmer trends are shocking to some, but we also need to stay objective here.

This times a million. It takes a miracle, extremely early season SSW just to get a classically cold/snowy winter in the east now, it's pretty sad honestly.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +0.9 +0.5 +0.3 +2.4 +2.0 +2.9 +3.0 +0.5 +0.8

No chance ORD finishes at -6. Something like -3 or so is more likely to be the final departure, maybe even -2 if we get a few super warm days.

You and @Baum can go check out the temperature forecast contests in the weather forecasting sub if you want instead of being snarky, imbecilic assholes. The scoring speaks for itself.

Well I've been right on just about every forecast I've made besides the July heat bust (which everyone else busted on as well), but okay lol. Whatever helps you sleep at night, I guess.

October snow isn't happening this year. There isn't really a correlation anyway, so it doesn't matter.

I know it's very early still, but this appears to be progressing with near perfection thus far. August was indeed a relative "break month", and now it's looking as though Sept will be potentially record warm for a large section of the country.

today and tomorrow will feature above average temps (when pertaining to daily highs anyhow), then we see a 2-3 day cooldown before we go back above average for the foreseeable future. so yes, what I said was accurate. Also, the first half of Sept will not finish below average overall, especially for Chicago and points west.

yeah, looks like almost unrelenting warmth based on pattern recognition alone after this upcoming weekend.

pretty clear this summer leaned warmer (albeit near normal for most).

pretty typical up and down early fall wx before the warmth takes over again around mid-month or so.

It was nice while it was happening, but the aftermath wasn't so pretty. Led to a complete agricultural disaster due to the inevitable cold snap that occurred later on in April. More modest warmth like we saw this year is ideal imo.

Feb 2015 was obviously very impressive, but it wasn't exactly unprecedented on a regional scale, as similarly cold months have occurred in the past. Feb 2014 was impressively cold as well, just centered farther west. Then you have months like Feb 1936 and Jan 1977 which were even more extreme. March 2012 on the other hand was quite literally unprecedented for a very large swath of the country, with the heat wave being the most extreme temperature event ever recorded. We had minimum temperatures beating record highs for the same date. The gap between first and second place was also much greater in the case of March 2012 for just about every major reporting site in the Midwest/East. Feb 2015 wasn't even Detroit's coldest February (1882 was almost two degrees colder), while March 2012 beat the previous monthly record by nearly three degrees. The gap was even more extreme in Chicago, with March 2012 coming in nearly five degrees warmer than the previous monthly record. It's not even close, March 2012 was so warm that it doesn't even make any sense. Just a complete statistical outlier that is in an entirely different league of its own. Going to be a very long time before we see a month that extreme again IMO.

was pulling for an intrahour 100. oh well.

doesn't seem like it has reached ORD yet, but the temp has been hovering around 99 for a while now.